Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018 (moon, East, highest, rain)

[Psychoma]

And here's some more specific possible rain totals:
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1049631334514208768

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Nice map of storm surge


https://twitter.com/BillKarins/statu...128704/photo/1

As I understand it, the storm surge predictions are always worst case scenario. The areas most likely won't see the max of these ranges.

[Psychoma]

Surge values are indeed reasonably could happen worst case scenario given current storm forecast. This is what officials have to plan to. When water does rise, authorities will not be out making rescues in surge like you see in inland flooding. This area of the Gulf is susceptible to higher surges due to its shallow coast line.

Personally I prefer thus interactive map because it shows the surge for more inland features such as rivers and bays better: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

[lunalvr]

I live in Indianapolis now, but consider Santa Rosa Beach, FL my home. I'm so worried for my family and friends. Most of them are being smart and leaving this morning, because they all live in red surge zones. My sister just dropped her 3 month old baby girl off with the in-laws to take her away. She can't leave because she's a nurse.

Ughhhh so much to stress about and I'm not even home!!!

[Psychoma]

From the official storm surge group of the NHC:
https://twitter.com/nhc_surge/status...50107099111428

[Hammocks Bum]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I am not gonna get anything. At most under .25" unless it tracks a 100 miles more to the east. Wanna make a bet on the rain?

Nope...not ever a gambler or into bets

[Psychoma]

Waters starting to slowly rise as onshore winds help push water towards land.
https://twitter.com/ocsoalerts/statu...85684322222081

[Nonchalance]

Originally Posted by motordavid

^ +1...
This forum and its knowledgeable, quality posters is the go to place for info about the storms.
I appreciate the info and the excellent posters data and opins!
GL, mD

Me, too.

[newtovenice]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

Waters starting to slowly rise as onshore winds help push water towards land.
https://twitter.com/ocsoalerts/statu...85684322222081

I live in Venice FL, which is much closer to the hurricane. Hundreds of miles closer.

We have NO storm surge. How does Shalimar have storm surge today????

[Psychoma]

Looks like winds are heading away from shore W coast of FL and parallel or slightly into the coast along the N Gulf coast shore lines. That flooding image above may also be Choctawhatchee Bay being pushed generally Westward. Of corse we don't know what it looks like at normal tide levels. Such a broad wind field across the NE Gulf is enough to begin moving water, even if winds overall lite well away from the storm.
Actual wind obs:


Visual representation generally of overall wind field (and storm spins counter-clockwise):


We saw similar with Irma last year with the broad wind field pushing water away from W FL for a time.