Atmospheric River(s) in the forecast again (Seattle, Vancouver: insurance, house)

[rkcarguy]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...4d4877a239a413

"Some of the storms will bring only sporadic showers or a brief period of rain and mountain snow, while others could line moisture up in such a way to produce an atmospheric river or fire hose effect.

The cumulative effect of the storms through Nov. 2 or so has the potential to result in about 3-6 inches (75-150 mm) of rain near sea level around locations such as the major cities of Seattle, Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, British Columbia. However, along the immediate Pacific-facing slopes of the Olympics, Coast Mountains and Cascades, a general 6-12 inches of rain or more could fall."

Last year in early November, we saw a record 14+ inches of rain, resulting in 500 year flood levels in Whatcom County, and historic record highs in Mt. Vernon that came just short of cresting over their recent new downtown river wall. Flooding and slides in Canada caused historic damage to Highway 1 and rail routes in the Frasier valley, which I'm not sure are all even fixed yet. Some homes in Everson, Nooksack, and Sumas are still stripped to the studs below the flood line. Unfortunately, it's forecast to possibly happen again. Not a "gripe" thread, just a heads up!

[ScottStielow]

I guess time will tell. Hope this time not the 500- year floods? Just a good soaking will do.

[rkcarguy]

I hope not. Last year the levee failed and flooded from Everson to the border into Canada, something we hadn't seen since 1918(pictures in the museum). So far, the sum of rain for the next week looks to be 4-6" in Whatcom County working with Wunderground's precip forecast. That's not good, but it's not 14" either.

[rantiquity]

Rain fall on the Peninsula is about average for the year even with a above average warm summer. Rain will help the salmon runs in very low river water conditions and make the dry lawns turn green again.

I welcome the rain.

[jabogitlu]

Overall it's looking like the Sumas Prairie is going to be challenged in the future with more unstable weather patterns. We need to limit how many folks live out that way (in both BC and Washington). That entire area is a water-based ecological system, including the former, drained Sumas Lake.

[rkcarguy]

Originally Posted by jabogitlu

Overall it's looking like the Sumas Prairie is going to be challenged in the future with more unstable weather patterns. We need to limit how many folks live out that way (in both BC and Washington). That entire area is a water-based ecological system, including the former, drained Sumas Lake.

Thats not going to help. "Sumas lake" was drained to provide more farmland. We all like to eat and I'd prefer to know where it came from instead of being dependent upon foreign supply, not off of a container ship from China. (We all know how well that went since covid).
Unfortunately, we are just along for the ride. Ice core samples have provided an average temperature graph that shows roughly 100,000 year cycles of warming and cooling. The graph moves around alot near the peaks indicating more wild temperature swings and likely more extreme weather. When you view the river valleys from a high vantage point, what do you see? Its more or less flat around the rivers, and it got that way from water being there, and water will be there again like it or not. The Frasier valley will be the worst, where the topography between the river and canyon walls doesn't leave much room in many areas and rail routes highways and homes are forced to crowd the river. The only thing we can do, is either dam it up, or get out of the way.

[dav51lin]

i am tired of the rain wind already

[jabogitlu]

Originally Posted by rkcarguy

Thats not going to help. "Sumas lake" was drained to provide more farmland. We all like to eat and I'd prefer to know where it came from instead of being dependent upon foreign supply, not off of a container ship from China. (We all know how well that went since covid).
Unfortunately, we are just along for the ride. Ice core samples have provided an average temperature graph that shows roughly 100,000 year cycles of warming and cooling. The graph moves around alot near the peaks indicating more wild temperature swings and likely more extreme weather. When you view the river valleys from a high vantage point, what do you see? Its more or less flat around the rivers, and it got that way from water being there, and water will be there again like it or not. The Frasier valley will be the worst, where the topography between the river and canyon walls doesn't leave much room in many areas and rail routes highways and homes are forced to crowd the river. The only thing we can do, is either dam it up, or get out of the way.

You said that's not going to help (I assume you mean limiting the population in the Sumas Prairie) but then you say we either need to dam "it" up (it what?) or get out of the way. I'm not sure what your response is.

But, regardless, human inhabitation in the SP needs to be carefully planned. We cannot be in a regenerative cycle of rebuilding infrastructure out there, versus relocating people to more appropriate areas to live.

We do this in the MS River floodzones. Lots of crops are grown on the Arkansas side of the river near Memphis, but no one lives down there in the floodplains, because every few years they flood immensely.

[rkcarguy]

The feds already do this (limit rebuilding) through their flood insurance program at least in the US. If an area sees too many flood events you can put your house up on piles or a taller foundation(like some in Ferndale have done) or you will be relocated (or you can stay if you own your place outright but will not be insured). I'd bet the flood zone maps for our area are due to get a revision by FEMA after we had two 100 year and a 500 year flood in one year.

My thought was that we can dam up smaller tributaries(with fish bypasses) and hold back more water and release it when there is drought. More lakes, more fish, more hydro-power, and more water for the fish that can be released when needed.....or simply get everybody and everything out of the way because the flooding is obviously getting worse. The thought that we can cut out carbon fuels and expect anything to change is a farse.

[rkcarguy]

We're seeing some pretty heavy rain, but thankfully the "AR" seems to be moving around a bit and we aren't getting enough cumulative rain focused in one area to cause any significant flooding as of yet. Understandingly, the reaction of the locals to the chance of 12" of rain and another flood like last year was about as welcome as an F5 tornado forecast in the mid-west...