Hurricane Ike - Texas Watch! (Houston, San Antonio: garden, moving, best)

[gy2020]

The latest Hurricane Ike forecast (10:00 pm Central time, 9-8-08) is predicting a landfall around Brownsville, +/- 100 miles. They are predicting Saturday evening.

[Bo]

Originally Posted by gy2020

The latest Hurricane Ike forecast (10:00 pm Central time, 9-8-08) is predicting a landfall around Brownsville, +/- 100 miles. They are predicting Saturday evening.

Looks more like Corpus on this map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5_NL.gif - broken link). Still a big cone to the north and south, though.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5_NL_sm2.gif (broken link)

[artifice]

Originally Posted by gy2020

The latest Hurricane Ike forecast (10:00 pm Central time, 9-8-08) is predicting a landfall around Brownsville, +/- 100 miles. They are predicting Saturday evening.

I heard Corpus will take the direct Hit....Who knows till Friday?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5.gif (broken link)

[Bo]

Today's 7 AM models are indeed moving the track closer to Brownsville. You can see the difference in posts 50 and 51 above.

[soulful]

The projections from the National Hurricane Center were showing Houston in the line of fire. However, as of today, most projections are showing a direct hit on Corpus Christi and CNN is saying it will be a Cat 3 or 4.

What sort of damage should be expected and is the majority population center in a flood zone?

[Bo]

The latest version of the track map from 8AM is showing the landfall center line about midway between Brownsville and Corpus. As much as that track continues to move, it's hard to guess where it will end up. If it makes landfall as a category 4 or 5, the damage will be catastrophic on the coasts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL0908W5_sm2.gif (broken link)

[Mark Senior]

However, if it does "strike" midway between Corpus and Brownsville it will hit the "King Ranch" area of the coast the best possible place in the entire Gulf Coast to hit, especially the Texas Coast, there is almost no population in that area. A hurricane has hit this exact area in the last 30 years I can't remember the name. Also, Cecil made a direct hit on Corpus some years ago, a strong hurricane, did little damage as compared to what damage a hurricane can cause. Corpus is built up high above the coast line, therefore, little tide flooding or for that matter rain flooding. So, there should not the castastrophic damage as would occur in other areas. Also, in 4 or 5 days the forcast could change again, probably not, the cold front to the North is a blocking influence on a possible turn to the north - the high/blocking front has caused the shift to the West, however, there could be a slight opening to allow a more Northwest shift. Stay, tuned.

[loves2read]

agree that hitting north of Brownsville would be "best" target area
better to lose cattle than people and less physical infrastructure to rebuild...

but pretty early to make that call
people in Corpus and outlying areas are probably very concerned--there are marsh lands around there that will be affected by the tidal surge and all the rain that comes with hurricane...
also something that lot of people don't know is that a lot of that rain has salt in it
the area around Corpus and south is ag land--farming/ranching--getting heavy salt influx will affect the grass/growth for several years to come...
It did that years ago in central TX when hurricane Beulah I think came through as far as the San Antonio area where I grew up--my dad always had a garden and after all the rain from that hurricane he had salt in his garden for several years...

Padre Island stands to lose almost everything there if it comes in too far south...

[jread]

I just hope we finally get some rain here in Austin.

[awecelot]

Originally Posted by Bowie

The latest version of the track map from 8AM is showing the landfall center line about midway between Brownsville and Corpus. As much as that track continues to move, it's hard to guess where it will end up. If it makes landfall as a category 4 or 5, the damage will be catastrophic on the coasts.

That map shows a landfall in the Flour Bluff area now.