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The colloquial term/phrase "A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats" can be applied to Tennessee. or can it?
Based on that Term Tennessee's Economic Prosperity will find it's way to all of its major Cities, or will it?
As Nashville rises will other major Tennessee Cities benefit due to proximity to Nashville and also being in Tennessee? Or no
Look at texas, First there was dallas and houston, and now texas's growth has spread to austin and san antonio
Let's look at florida, first there was miami and tampa, now florida's growth has spread to orlando and jacksonville
Who's the one Growing? Is Nashville growing? or is Tennessee Growing?? I ask this question because years ago in the grand scheme of things when one said that Tennessee was growing in relations to other States it was because of Nashville.
Now. There is growing evidence that areas outside of Nashville and even Middle Tennessee are growing at much greater paces then they had before. I call it the Tennessee Effect. Clarksville, Murfreesboro, Knoxville, Cookeville, Chattanooga and Tri Cities and Memphis all have faster Growth in various sectors. Memphis has not kept up in population growth, but has rising tourism airport figures and faster economic growth than it had previously, Knoxville has become the 2nd fastest growing Tennessee Metro in population growth, with Knox County sometimes even outpacing Davidson County, Chattanooga has registered an uptick in its city growth, Cookeville has become one of the fastest growing micropolitian areas in the country, Clarksville is the Fastest Growing Tn city, and even Jackson Tennessee registered modest population gain.Some of this Evidence may be flimsy, or a fluke at best i.e Cities that are growing now my slow down or reverse course in the future, time will tell. But because of Tennessee's lack of a State Income Tax, Business Friendly Environment, and seemingly unstoppable population and economic growth,
It Started with Nashville, But Now like Texas and Florida will Tennessee's Growth Spread to Other Areas of the State i.e "The Tennessee Effect" or does the Hypothetical "Tennessee Effect" not Exist and growth will remain concentrated in/ around Nashville?
The Question: The Tennessee Effect
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats. Will Tennessee's rising tide Stay in Nashville or Lift the boats of Knox, Chat, Clarks, Mem, Tri Cities, Cookeville etc?
"A rising tide lifts all boats" is an aphorism associated with the idea that an improved economy will benefit all participants and that economic policy, particularly government economic policy, should therefore focus on broad economic efforts. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_ri...omic%20efforts.
Last edited by BlueRedTide; 02-19-2024 at 11:43 AM..
No one knows for sure how the future will go, but I would say the growth will remain consolidated in the larger metro issues.
I live in the Tri-Cities. Other than Johnson City, there's only minor population growth elsewhere. Most of that seems to be driven by retirees and/or remote workers - people not dependent on wages earned in the local economy. The area is aging and has net negative natural population growth.
There's never been much of a white collar professional scene in the area. Even if you do land a good job, if that job goes away, there might not be anything comparable for you in the area. It's not like we're 45 minutes outside of Nashville or something - we're not commutable to anywhere else. The isolation and historical lack of a professional job market is always going to be a drag on population growth. There are also issues here with bad healthcare, high rates of addiction/drug abuse, crime related to addiction/drug abuse, that will be drags on the economy and population growth.
Johnson City gets most of the growth because it's clearly the nicest place between Roanoke, VA, Asheville, NC, and Knoxville, TN. If you're coming from the suburbs of Chicago, DC, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc., and want anything somewhat comparable to your previous "suburban nice" lifestyle, it's really the only option. Bristol is too small and Kingsport is too poor with too much crime to be competitive. Both are less affluent than Johnson City.
I don't see any reason to see these trends, at least here locally in the Tri-Cities, changing anytime soon. The lack of a tax on earned income has been the case for many years. It really hasn't helped drive growth in this area any.
I will say that this area could use more support from the state government. It seems like anything north or east of the Smokies tourist area is basically forgotten.
No one knows for sure how the future will go, but I would say the growth will remain consolidated in the larger metro issues.
I live in the Tri-Cities. Other than Johnson City, there's only minor population growth elsewhere. Most of that seems to be driven by retirees and/or remote workers - people not dependent on wages earned in the local economy. The area is aging and has net negative natural population growth.
There's never been much of a white collar professional scene in the area. Even if you do land a good job, if that job goes away, there might not be anything comparable for you in the area. It's not like we're 45 minutes outside of Nashville or something - we're not commutable to anywhere else. The isolation and historical lack of a professional job market is always going to be a drag on population growth. There are also issues here with bad healthcare, high rates of addiction/drug abuse, crime related to addiction/drug abuse, that will be drags on the economy and population growth.
Johnson City gets most of the growth because it's clearly the nicest place between Roanoke, VA, Asheville, NC, and Knoxville, TN. If you're coming from the suburbs of Chicago, DC, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc., and want anything somewhat comparable to your previous "suburban nice" lifestyle, it's really the only option. Bristol is too small and Kingsport is too poor with too much crime to be competitive. Both are less affluent than Johnson City.
I don't see any reason to see these trends, at least here locally in the Tri-Cities, changing anytime soon. The lack of a tax on earned income has been the case for many years. It really hasn't helped drive growth in this area any.
I will say that this area could use more support from the state government. It seems like anything north or east of the Smokies tourist area is basically forgotten.
That is a really interesting perspective thanks.
The point of having very little white collar opportunities should you need an alternative is a genuine concern and if the local wages don't keep up with local real estate prices I have no idea how people would afford to live.
No one knows for sure how the future will go, but I would say the growth will remain consolidated in the larger metro issues.
I live in the Tri-Cities. Other than Johnson City, there's only minor population growth elsewhere. Most of that seems to be driven by retirees and/or remote workers - people not dependent on wages earned in the local economy. The area is aging and has net negative natural population growth.
There's never been much of a white collar professional scene in the area. Even if you do land a good job, if that job goes away, there might not be anything comparable for you in the area. It's not like we're 45 minutes outside of Nashville or something - we're not commutable to anywhere else. The isolation and historical lack of a professional job market is always going to be a drag on population growth. There are also issues here with bad healthcare, high rates of addiction/drug abuse, crime related to addiction/drug abuse, that will be drags on the economy and population growth.
Johnson City gets most of the growth because it's clearly the nicest place between Roanoke, VA, Asheville, NC, and Knoxville, TN. If you're coming from the suburbs of Chicago, DC, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc., and want anything somewhat comparable to your previous "suburban nice" lifestyle, it's really the only option. Bristol is too small and Kingsport is too poor with too much crime to be competitive. Both are less affluent than Johnson City.
I don't see any reason to see these trends, at least here locally in the Tri-Cities, changing anytime soon. The lack of a tax on earned income has been the case for many years. It really hasn't helped drive growth in this area any.
I will say that this area could use more support from the state government. It seems like anything north or east of the Smokies tourist area is basically forgotten.
This is well said, and a very good perspective.
I think historically, and definitely before the interstate system was built in east Tennessee (interstate 81, and now interstate 26), east Tennessee was really cut off from not only the rest of Tennessee, but from the rest of the country. It was truly a country/rural region, similar to Southwest Virginia, eastern Kentucky and most of West Virginia.
East Tennessee has been playing catch up to the rest of the state, and Johnson City is really the city that has taken off quite well, in playing catch up. Johnson City has a thriving mall, destination retailers and destination bars/restaurants, a good university, a growing medical school, and is becoming known as a brewery town and a mountain biking town, as well. Plus, the VA hospital there is one of the better ones in the region.
Kingsport has really historically dug its heels into the fact that Eastman Chemical is located there, and much to its overall decline, has distanced itself from Johnson City to embrace its local churches, and essentially have them dictate Kingsport's future. Add in the abysmal Ballad Healthcare takeover of Holston Valley and area hospitals, and businesses fleeing Kingsport in droves, and retirees are really the only group of folks causing the population there to grow.
Bristol has many bright spots, but seems to be taking 2 steps forward, and 1 step back lately. Plus its lack of well paying industry hurts its growth potential.
To address the OP though, I do think growth is starting to spread all over the state of TN. The 2 areas that are lagging seem to be Memphis and the tri-cities. But recently Johnson City has broken out of that mold.
Nashville and its metro, Chattanooga, Knoxville and its metro, Cookeville, Clarksville, and the Sevier County region are growing super well.
The point of having very little white collar opportunities should you need an alternative is a genuine concern and if the local wages don't keep up with local real estate prices I have no idea how people would afford to live.
The people at the very bottom have gained a lot of ground, but they're still too poor to afford good housing. The top 20% or so were fine pre-pandemic and are fine today.
The problem is the middle 50% or so. I worked for the regional hospital system, and at the time, the IT department was about 400 people. Tons of people with "analyst" and "engineer" job titles. Those types of positions have sometimes seen a decline in actual pay - much less kept up with inflation.
If you're an IT/finance/supply chain/corporate office person, and not at director level or higher, you're probably worse off here than in 2019 or 2014.
Like I mentioned, if you get laid off, want to change jobs, etc., there aren't many other options in the Tri-Cities. That's less of a problem in Knoxville, and much less of a problem in Nashville.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc
This is well said, and a very good perspective.
I think historically, and definitely before the interstate system was built in east Tennessee (interstate 81, and now interstate 26), east Tennessee was really cut off from not only the rest of Tennessee, but from the rest of the country. It was truly a country/rural region, similar to Southwest Virginia, eastern Kentucky and most of West Virginia.
East Tennessee has been playing catch up to the rest of the state, and Johnson City is really the city that has taken off quite well, in playing catch up. Johnson City has a thriving mall, destination retailers and destination bars/restaurants, a good university, a growing medical school, and is becoming known as a brewery town and a mountain biking town, as well. Plus, the VA hospital there is one of the better ones in the region.
Kingsport has really historically dug its heels into the fact that Eastman Chemical is located there, and much to its overall decline, has distanced itself from Johnson City to embrace its local churches, and essentially have them dictate Kingsport's future. Add in the abysmal Ballad Healthcare takeover of Holston Valley and area hospitals, and businesses fleeing Kingsport in droves, and retirees are really the only group of folks causing the population there to grow.
Bristol has many bright spots, but seems to be taking 2 steps forward, and 1 step back lately. Plus its lack of well paying industry hurts its growth potential.
To address the OP though, I do think growth is starting to spread all over the state of TN. The 2 areas that are lagging seem to be Memphis and the tri-cities. But recently Johnson City has broken out of that mold.
Nashville and its metro, Chattanooga, Knoxville and its metro, Cookeville, Clarksville, and the Sevier County region are growing super well.
The whole issue is kind of a cycle. Big employers would have a hard time relocating here because the workforce is relatively uneducated, poorly trained, a lot of addiction problems, etc. Well-to-do professional types have a hard time relocating here because of the lack of available jobs, low pay, few options if the first job doesn't work out, lack of amenities, sometimes politics, etc. Both of these things feed off each other to the point where very little actually happens.
Much has been made about real estate price run-ups over the past few years, but fundamentally, little has changed in the local economy to justify that, good or bad.
At least in Knoxville, probably Chattanooga, there are more options available across the board. Knoxville is bigger with a flagship university. Chattanooga has a tech scene. They are just much more "typical America" than the Tri-Cities.
Aside from Johnson City, upper east TN has more in common with the Rust Belt economically than most of the rest of Tennessee.
Short term, Nashville will continue to get the most growth by leaps and bounds. As it becomes unaffordable, Knoxville and Chattanooga will gobble up the most growth. We have become decentralized with the net and work from home. You no longer have to live in a high cost metro to pull down six figures. When Nashville becomes nose-bleed expensive, employees will move to other parts of the state and employees enjoy lower cost of living.
To the extent service workers have to work locally (you can't serve restaurant food or do oil changes remotely), companies will eventually move from Nashville to other parts of the state where they can pay lower wages but employees enjoy lower cost of living.
So, short term Nashville like maybe 20 years. Long term, other.
The people at the very bottom have gained a lot of ground, but they're still too poor to afford good housing. The top 20% or so were fine pre-pandemic and are fine today.
The problem is the middle 50% or so. I worked for the regional hospital system, and at the time, the IT department was about 400 people. Tons of people with "analyst" and "engineer" job titles. Those types of positions have sometimes seen a decline in actual pay - much less kept up with inflation.
If you're an IT/finance/supply chain/corporate office person, and not at director level or higher, you're probably worse off here than in 2019 or 2014.
Like I mentioned, if you get laid off, want to change jobs, etc., there aren't many other options in the Tri-Cities. That's less of a problem in Knoxville, and much less of a problem in Nashville.
The whole issue is kind of a cycle. Big employers would have a hard time relocating here because the workforce is relatively uneducated, poorly trained, a lot of addiction problems, etc. Well-to-do professional types have a hard time relocating here because of the lack of available jobs, low pay, few options if the first job doesn't work out, lack of amenities, sometimes politics, etc. Both of these things feed off each other to the point where very little actually happens.
Much has been made about real estate price run-ups over the past few years, but fundamentally, little has changed in the local economy to justify that, good or bad.
At least in Knoxville, probably Chattanooga, there are more options available across the board. Knoxville is bigger with a flagship university. Chattanooga has a tech scene. They are just much more "typical America" than the Tri-Cities.
Aside from Johnson City, upper east TN has more in common with the Rust Belt economically than most of the rest of Tennessee.
Your posts are extremely helpful and insightful. Thanks for laying things out the way you do I really appreciate it. I think I've decided I have crossed East TN off my list unless I become financially well enough off that working becomes a luxury not a necessity. I just think it would be too stressful always worried if you lose your job "what am I going to do, how am I going to pay my bills" know there is very slim prospects of a viable plan B or C.
I think I will focus more on upstate SC and in TN more between Knoxville/Chattanooga or on the plateau near Cookeville just because it seems more economically diversified.
Your posts are extremely helpful and insightful. Thanks for laying things out the way you do I really appreciate it. I think I've decided I have crossed East TN off my list unless I become financially well enough off that working becomes a luxury not a necessity. I just think it would be too stressful always worried if you lose your job "what am I going to do, how am I going to pay my bills" know there is very slim prospects of a viable plan B or C.
I think I will focus more on upstate SC and in TN more between Knoxville/Chattanooga or on the plateau near Cookeville just because it seems more economically diversified.
A lot of white collar types are going to run into this issue in many metros this size, but the Tri-Cities has some unique issues.
Sullivan, Washington, and the surrounding "collar counties" that are economically associated with the bigger cities have probably 500,000 residents now. It's not a small population, but the cities compete with each other - they don't cooperate. You also have two MSAs - Kingsport-Bristol and Johnson City.
Downtown Johnson City is around 40 minutes from my house in Bristol. I rarely go there, even though that is where the best shopping, dining, and nightlife are. Someone who lives/works in Johnson City has little reason to go to the other two cities. What ends up happening is that the area functions as a string of competing small cities, and feels much smaller than it ought to. Every city has a Belk store, but no Dillard's, for instance. Two Sam's Clubs, but no Costco. Anything "upper middle class" is in Johnson City, to the extent it exists at all. It would be different if these cities were a half hour outside of Knoxville or something to where you could reach better amenities more easily, but we're an hour and a half from anything else, with the exception of Johnson City to Asheville.
Knoxville doesn't have this problem. The surrounding cities there are basically suburbs of Knoxville.
People see these "listicles" that list these high growth areas in the South, but at least in TN, that growth is basically driven by middle TN and, to some extent, Knoxville and Chattanooga. Memphis has well-documented issues. Much of the rest of the state is struggling economically.
Your posts are extremely helpful and insightful. Thanks for laying things out the way you do I really appreciate it. I think I've decided I have crossed East TN off my list unless I become financially well enough off that working becomes a luxury not a necessity. I just think it would be too stressful always worried if you lose your job "what am I going to do, how am I going to pay my bills" know there is very slim prospects of a viable plan B or C.
I think I will focus more on upstate SC and in TN more between Knoxville/Chattanooga or on the plateau near Cookeville just because it seems more economically diversified.
Knoxville, Chattanooga, and the Tri-Cities are all in East Tennessee. There is a nuisance to the Tri-Cities because it's considered Northeast Tennessee (also known as Upper East Tennessee). While the core of the Tri-Cities lies within in Sullivan and Washington Counties, the overall area is geographically much larger sprawling over a couple more counties plus into Virginia.
In the Tri-Cities a lot of people may choose to stay local to the city they live in, but a lot of people travel back and forth between the cities for work, shopping, and entertainment. For example, where I live it's easier to go to Johnson City than it is to the Pinnacle. Even though JC has higher end shopping, if you want a Mercedes, BMW, or Porsche, the dealers are only in Kingsport. However, Kingsport's Subaru dealership closed and you'd have to go to JC or Bristol for one.
I would not say that Cookeville is economically diversified. It would be more comparable to Johnson City. Both have a state university. It is also a bedroom community for people who wanted cheaper housing and commute to Nashville.
Seems to be plenty of growth in Knox, Monroe, Loudon and Blount counties in Eastern Tennessee. Not as much as surrounding Nashville but nothing to scoff about either.
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