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The growth in Kingsport-Bristol is very sluggish compared to Johnson City and most of the metropolitans in the rest of the state. Jackson is sluggish. All of this is pretty much expected.
What's the issue with Memphis? Is it a case where the city is declining faster than the suburbs are growing? Or is it a case where the entire metro is declining?
Not that I ever really gave it much thought, but I always just assumed that the Tri-Cities were one single metro. I didn't realize that Johnson City was separate from Kingsport and Bristol.
What's the issue with Memphis? Is it a case where the city is declining faster than the suburbs are growing? Or is it a case where the entire metro is declining?
Not that I ever really gave it much thought, but I always just assumed that the Tri-Cities were one single metro. I didn't realize that Johnson City was separate from Kingsport and Bristol.
The "two metros" thing is based on historical commuting patterns. Bristol, and especially Kingsport, used to be driven by heavy industry. There was a lot of commuting between the two. When these definitions were developed, most workers who worked at Holston Defense, Eastman, Domtar, Wellmont Health System, and other big Kingsport employers, probably lived in and around Kingsport.
I worked as a contractor at Eastman for awhile and worked for Ballad for years in offices throughout each of the Tri-Cities, then remotely. My experience has been that the majority of white collar staff at these employers now commute from Johnson City, especially anyone who is not a local native.
Johnson City is the only city between Knoxville, Asheville, and Roanoke that offers a slice of "suburban nice" that white collar people from out of the area would be used to. Kingsport used to have some of that, but has had a significant decline in the last ten or twenty years in restaurants, retail, and entertainment, along with an increasing crime, drug, and homelessness issue. Bristol has cannibalized some of Kingsport's retail and restaurants, but it too is now having more of the open drug/crime issues that used to be contained to Kingsport. Johnson City, for the most part, is avoiding this. Johnson City is "nice" - Kingsport and Bristol aren't - and this is being reflected in the population growth rates.
I own a home in Bristol. I bought in 2019 because I commuted to a Kingsport office at the time. The commute from Johnson City to Kingsport was much worse than from Bristol to Kingsport. I now have a girlfriend in Asheville, and haven't been to an office with any regularity in four years. I regularly get groceries at Earthfare and Publix and do other retail shopping in Johnson City because of poor options in Bristol.
If I lived in Johnson City, I'd rarely need to go to Kingsport or Bristol for anything. I'm also 30-40 minutes closer to Asheville for bigger city things. If you live in Kingsport or Bristol, and like better retail, dining, grocery stores, entertainment, etc., you're regularly going to Johnson City for anything more than the bare essentials. There are some exceptions - Bristol has an excellent movie theater, rooftop drinks at the Bristol Hotel are hard to beat, etc. - but the cases where Bristol or Kingsport have something Johnson City doesn't are limited these days.
What's the issue with Memphis? Is it a case where the city is declining faster than the suburbs are growing? Or is it a case where the entire metro is declining?
Memphis has a more challenging time attracting well paying jobs, white collar jobs, and overall company growth in and around the Memphis metropolitan region.
Traditionally and historically, the Mississippi delta region is not that diverse of a place for job or career opportunity, and has been poor to lower middle class and/or sees most of the folks in that region struggling to make ends meet.
Today is not much different, unfortunately.
Memphis has some good gentrification going on in a few inner-city neighborhoods, but many of Memphis' neighborhoods are poor to lower middle class, with shoddy looking homes, vacant lots here and there, a visible rougher areas.
Also, crime has been stubbornly high, and the Memphis perception and branding nationwide have taken a hit.
Essentially someone could argue that Nashville has seen its branding of the city and region grow wildly successful, as one of the fastest growing regions in the country the past few years.
Whereas Memphis has seen its branding of the city and the region go in the opposite direction-with the area struggling to attract companies, jobs and residents wanting to move to the region.
Essentially someone could argue that Nashville has seen its branding of the city and region grow wildly successful, as one of the fastest growing regions in the country the past few years.
Whereas Memphis has seen its branding of the city and the region go in the opposite direction-with the area struggling to attract companies, jobs and residents wanting to move to the region.[/quote]
You could argue the coming of the Titans & the Predators 25-20 years ago put Nashville on the map. The TV show Nashville upped the ante. Over 30 years the redevelopment of Broadway from run down honky tonk into a tourist mecca draws visitors to Nashville.
Also helping was a lot of people relocating to Nashville from New Orleans because of Katrina. Having Nissan and many others relocate from California made another boost.
Beginning to wonder if Murfreesboro could be split off from Nashville MSA. Maybe find different trends when you compare the 5 counties. Compare Franklin to Lebanon to Clarksville. Good trends in Cookeville and Crossville.
Essentially someone could argue that Nashville has seen its branding of the city and region grow wildly successful, as one of the fastest growing regions in the country the past few years.
Whereas Memphis has seen its branding of the city and the region go in the opposite direction-with the area struggling to attract companies, jobs and residents wanting to move to the region.
You could argue the coming of the Titans & the Predators 25-20 years ago put Nashville on the map. The TV show Nashville upped the ante. Over 30 years the redevelopment of Broadway from run down honky tonk into a tourist mecca draws visitors to Nashville.
Also helping was a lot of people relocating to Nashville from New Orleans because of Katrina. Having Nissan and many others relocate from California made another boost.
Beginning to wonder if Murfreesboro could be split off from Nashville MSA. Maybe find different trends when you compare the 5 counties. Compare Franklin to Lebanon to Clarksville. Good trends in Cookeville and Crossville.[/quote]
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Yeah, certainly the Titans and Predators coming to town raised Nashville's perception nationwide--and really put it on the map for sports. Add in major league soccer coming to town over the course of the last few years--and the MLB aggressively pursuing Nashville to add a franchise--Nashville has become a sports city.
Also, Nashville has had a good economic mix of jobs--and never has really relied on one or two big industries to carry the city and region. Nashville has one of the ideal blends economically in the US-with it being a huge tourist destination to boot.
Memphis is not so fortunate in its location. Geographically it sits on the historically depressed Mississippi River banks, in the Mississippi delta region of the south. It has never been a magnet for growth unless it was agriculture-based.
Luckily, Memphis has been able to turn parts of its city into trendier, young professional areas that attract folks who earn a good living. This type of gentrification seems to be expanding into other neighborhoods, and it can only help in the long term.
I hope tech and white collar companies do see Memphis as a good place to build jobs in the future. This will only create population growth for the region.
What's the issue with Memphis? Is it a case where the city is declining faster than the suburbs are growing? Or is it a case where the entire metro is declining?
Not that I ever really gave it much thought, but I always just assumed that the Tri-Cities were one single metro. I didn't realize that Johnson City was separate from Kingsport and Bristol.
When we visiting TN several years back, to a man, everyone told us to stay away from Memphis due to the crime and drug problem. I can't speak to any of that personally as I have still never been there.
We also wandered around Johnson City, witch is not 'part' of Kingsport/Bristol, to my knowledge, but it is also not very far away.
We liked Johnson City, lots of retail, restaurants, etc if you are looking for some amenities, but we didn't see much of that in K/B. It seemed to have been coming into its own. We never really drove around any residential neighborhoods, although once, when we got lost, we did, and some guy on the corner had 5 deer in his front yard.
The standout for me was everyone was nice, polite.
I'll bet I'm going to regret not relocating then (pre-COVID) as I look for my next, last place.
ity, witch is not 'part' of Kingsport/Bristol, to my knowledge, but it is also not very far away.
We liked Johnson City, lots of retail, restaurants, etc if you are looking for some amenities, but we didn't see much of that in K/B. It seemed to have been coming into its own. We never really drove around any residential neighborhoods, although once, when we got lost, we did, and some guy on the corner had 5 deer in his front yard.
The standout for me was everyone was nice, polite.
I'll bet I'm going to regret not relocating then (pre-COVID) as I look for my next, last place.
Kingsport to Johnson City is 15-30 minutes depending on where you are starting from/going, and the interstate traffic. Where I am in Bristol to downtown Johnson City is pushing forty minutes.
This kind of thing feeds on itself - because JC is already "nice," it tends to attract wealthier, more educated residents, who in turn start or demand higher end businesses, etc. K-B attracts a lower end demographic, the "nicer" things never start up, etc.
I'm in Bristol. Here's a case in point. Back in the winter of 2023, I ordered a couple of orders from Walmart's delivery service without issue. I ended up buying the $100 annual Walmart+ plan where you get free delivery from the store for fresh foods. I got an order or two after that without incident - ever since then, probably two-thirds of the orders were delayed by days or didn't come at all.
When I finally got one, I asked the person who brought the order out if deliveries not making it out is a common problem. She said there are a lot of delivery orders for Walmart, but few drivers because the locals won't tip.
Other services, like DoorDash, are also extremely spotty. I've had a few DoorDash orders, and it's the same story. The same woman almost always brings my orders.
Uber/Lyft is also basically nonexistent. This is in a city of ~50,000 if you count both sides of the state line. It was NASCAR week this week. You'd think there would be more Uber drivers with a big event in town. There wasn't. My girlfriend and I went to dinner in downtown Johnson City Saturday night. I counted seven Ubers in a couple of miles. I'd say the delivery services are much better.
Some of this is just characteristic of any town with a low median HHI. I'm single and make about twice the median HHI here. I feel like an alien sometimes, and I grew up nearby. ETSU, Ballad HQ, and the VA also help enhance the diversity of JC beyond what you'd otherwise expect given its location and demographics.
For groceries, all we have is a dumpy Kroger, Aldi (in VA), Food City (mainline regional grocer), and Walmart/Sam's Club. I am big into grilling and smoking meat, and there's no butcher shop. Johnson City has all of these, one of the Krogers is much better kept, a butcher shop, Publix (comparatively upmarket FL mainline grocer), and two fancier grocery stores that are like Whole Foods, as well as a variety of ethnic markets.
While Bristol has (had?) some momentum with the downtown, Birthplace of Country Music tourism, and the new casino, several notable downtown businesses have all folded in the last six months. Nothing has gone into these buildings. As I said, the number of people who appear to be homeless and intoxicated/AMS has surged over the last year or so.
It's easy to see how the higher growth rate of Johnson City will persist when comparing it to the rest of upper east TN.
A few takeaways
-It is interesting that Tennessee's Growth Accelerated last year but Nashville's growth Decelerated last year
-It gets a lot of flack but actually the Majority of West Tennessee counties Grew Last year
-Hamilton vs Rutherford for 3rd largest county Now?
Last edited by BlueRedTide; 03-18-2024 at 08:32 PM..
What's the issue with Memphis? Is it a case where the city is declining faster than the suburbs are growing? Or is it a case where the entire metro is declining?
Not that I ever really gave it much thought, but I always just assumed that the Tri-Cities were one single metro. I didn't realize that Johnson City was separate from Kingsport and Bristol.
Memphis 's Central County is losing population and the suburban growth is not strong enough to offset it. But the suburban growth is slightly increasing.
Let's Get into the Nuts and Bolts! Here's the Rundown Shelby County Tn lost about 6000 people Fayette County Tn gained about 850 Tipton County Tn gained 400 DeSoto County MS, gained about 2100 Marshall County MS gained about 200 Tate County MS slight increase Tunica County, MS slight decrease Benton County MS slight decrease *Crittenden County AR slight *Increase!??
As you can see it's Shelby County's fault. If Shelby county would have gain 100 or even 1 person Memphis Metro would have grew. The Suburbs cushioned Memphis's fall. It Lost 6000 but the Suburbs bought in about 3100, leaving Memphis to Decrease by 2900 instead of 6000
every single county surrounding Memphis grew at least. With Fayette Marshall and Tipton seeing slight upticks in growth, and DeSoto County remaining the true Growth Champion of the Memphis Metro. *Crittenden County Arkansas Grew for the first time Ever in Modern History. It's normally in the perennially decreasing category, I was Shocked to read that it grew.
Most Southern Metros are growing by about 3000-6000 people per county per Annual Census Estimate, Memphis's counties are growing about 400-2000 per county per estimate so that's not fast.
Welp that's the diagnosis/issue with Memphis
Last edited by BlueRedTide; 03-18-2024 at 08:21 PM..
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and some guy on the corner had 5 deer in his front yard. 
