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Something is off with the Davidson County numbers. The Nashville MSA took a sudden dip in growth rates with this last estimate that goes against everything we’ve seen for decades, and digging into the numbers reveals that the estimated Davidson County population dropped by almost 12,000 people from April 1st, 2020 compared to July 1st, 2021. None of the other indicators we’re seeing would point to a drop in population to that degree. I would be interested in knowing what data was used to come to the conclusion that Davidson actually dropped in population.
Have you considered the possibility (or reality) that the "official" 2020 census figures were way off, in this case, much elevated? Plus this significant "drop" has been observed for the vast majority of counties with large populations all across the country.
Have you considered the possibility (or reality) that the "official" 2020 census figures were way off, in this case, much elevated? Plus this significant "drop" has been observed for the vast majority of counties with large populations all across the country.
That's not how the estimates work though. By definition the Census figures are the basis for the estimates that come later. In other words, the 10 year census numbers are an actual count of people so are considered the gold standard. Every year after the government estimates the population based on housing starts, births, deaths, etc. They had to have seen something in that data to make them come up with estimates that showed such a decrease in the population. Several cities did see growth slow, but Nashville's negative growth outpaced the negative growth of Memphis, Birmingham, Louisville, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and others despite clearly outgrowing them over the last 30 years.
It makes me wonder if Metro didn't report their housing start data accurately. Maybe it was also just related to COVID and the temporary shifts in where people were living. If that's the case we may see a significant rebound for the 2022 data.
That's not how the estimates work though. By definition the Census figures are the basis for the estimates that come later. In other words, the 10 year census numbers are an actual count of people so are considered the gold standard. Every year after the government estimates the population based on housing starts, births, deaths, etc. They had to have seen something in that data to make them come up with estimates that showed such a decrease in the population. Several cities did see growth slow, but Nashville's negative growth outpaced the negative growth of Memphis, Birmingham, Louisville, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and others despite clearly outgrowing them over the last 30 years.
It makes me wonder if Metro didn't report their housing start data accurately. Maybe it was also just related to COVID and the temporary shifts in where people were living. If that's the case we may see a significant rebound for the 2022 data.
Looking at all the new developments in the area around Bellevue may be significant increase in housing coming onto the market. Old Sam's club site converted into housing. Plenty of other developments near WalMart on Charlotte. Some new houses in West Meade.
Thank you for posting all this info. I'm not sure if I still trust the numbers--I certainly don't trust the 2020 official census figures. Anyway, it's good to see that some of the more rural areas are seeing some growth. I hear stories of people from higher priced states moving to rural places in the South, and some of the numbers below seem to confirm that.
Anyway, here are all of the metropolitan and micropolitan areas and their change from the 2020 Census.
area...2021 population...change from 2020 census
Nashville...2,012,476...22,957 Memphis...1,336,103...-1,676
Knoxville...893,412...13,639
Chattanooga...567,641...4,994
Clarksville...328,304...7,769
Kingsport-Bristol...308,661...1,047
Johnson City...208,068...783
Jackson...180,799...295
Morristown...143,855...1,146
Cleveland...127,938...1,993
Cookeville...115,777...1,795
Tullahoma-Manchester...108,891...1,767
Sevierville...99,517...1,137
Greeneville...70,621...469
Crossville...62,451...1,306
Athens...54,059...783
Shelbyville...51,119...882
Lawrenceburg...44,828...669
McMinnville...41,523...570
Dyersburg...36,615...-186
Newport...36,418...419
Lewisburg...34,984...666
Dayton...33,136...266
Martin...33,036...134
Paris...32,239...40
Union City...30,466...-321
Brownsville...17,694...-170
Memphis Really Lost about 7000 people, Shelby County Lost about 5000 during the Pandemic and Across the River in Arkansas lost about 1500 and some of the other smaller counties lost marginal amounts, DeSoto County Saved Memphis from being up there with some of the Midwest Cities in Population Decline, DeSoto County north Mississippi Suburbs and to a smaller extent Fayette County Negated alot of Memphis Losses DeSoto County grew by around 3500 slicing Memphis' Losses in half, Technically Memphis has the fastest growing county in Mississippi (DeSoto) and the fastest growing county in West Tennessee (Fayette) in it's Metro, Usually this formula results in Metro Memphis having Small population growth Especially in years when Shelby County also grows, But this time I guess it couldn't overcome the Pandemic, this is the first Time I Ever seen the ENTIRE Memphis Area lose population, The City Yeah, But Never the Metro, Guess it's a Weird Year indeed when Davidson County Also loses population, something I've also Rarely seen
The top 5 MSAs in TN with the largest numeric population increase:
(1) Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN, 1,995,343 to 2,012,476 (+17,133);
(2) Knoxville, TN, 881,628 to 893,412 (+11,784);
(3) Clarksville, TN-KY, 321,607 to 328,304 (+6,697);
(4) Chattanooga, TN-GA, 563,599 to 567,641 (+4,042);
(5) Cleveland, TN, 126,310 to 127,938 (+1,628).
Something's fishy with the Nashville MSA increase. Taking just the three counties with largest numeric increases adds up to 18,720 (see below), which is greater than the increase listed above. That means in the remaining MSA counties, there was a net loss of almost 1600, and that's simply not possible. Sumner, Maury and Dickson are growing at very rapid clips too. Davidson county was alleged to have lost hundreds of people from 2020-2021 and that's not likely either. There are some very public comments that the Metro Nashville mayor's office dropped the ball in getting the raw data to the Census Bureau and it showed a loss for Davidson county in the federal estimates. That would be par for the course with this administration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crltn19
The top 5 counties with the largest numeric increase are
(1) Rutherford, 343,128 to 352,182 (+9,054);
(2) Montgomery, 221,160 to 227,900 (+6,740);
(3) Knox, 480,126 to 486,677 (+6,551);
(4) Williamson, 249,424 to 255,735 (+6,311);
(5) Wilson, 148,564 to 151,917 (+3,353).
For the 2020 census, all states were not counted equally well for population numbers used to allocate political representation and federal funding over the next decade, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.
A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).
It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).
For the 2020 census, all states were not counted equally well for population numbers used to allocate political representation and federal funding over the next decade, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.
A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).
It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).
That would make sense. I've heard several county mayors in the Upper Cumberland express frustration that their counties were undercounted based on things like increased school enrollments and new construction.
That would make sense. I've heard several county mayors in the Upper Cumberland express frustration that their counties were undercounted based on things like increased school enrollments and new construction.
Part of the problem mentioned in the article is having Census rely on computer data. TN may be in last place with the number of households with a computer. Don't know how good service is around the state. It appears the county mayors would have to do something for all their residents. Maybe the courthouse or something would have computers to use. This assumes all the courthouse, libraries would be open & not closed because of Covid.
Then maybe you also had nobody from Census to follow up with emails. Maybe so many got sent to the junk spam file.
Not sure if the nearly 5% undercount could have resulted in TN having another congressional seat. Some states are overrepresented by 1 if the Census had been more accurate. This will last for a decade until 2030.
For the 2020 census, all states were not counted equally well for population numbers used to allocate political representation and federal funding over the next decade, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.
A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).
It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).
Hmmm Maybe Tennessee has passed the 7 Million mark than
Tennessee Undercounted Massachusetts Overcounted
Maybe Tennessee has passed Massachusetts in population than
Maybe Tennessee is now 15th in population instead of 16th
Maybe Davidson County Really Didn't lose population
If Davidson Did Lose Population will Nashville be like Metro Atlanta where All the Growth Happens in the Suburbs but the Central City Hardly Grows, Or Like Metro Houston where Both the Central City And Metro Grow
Maybe Shelby County Grew Faster or More than what was reported, maybe those in poverty didn't complete/care about the Census and thus where Undercounted
If Davidson County losing population becomes a trend and Shelby County keeps growing does that Mean Memphis would eventually become the Largest City again?,....Oh Lord Lol, hope not that would Reignite the Mem-Nash Rivalry all over again Where else it's kinda been dying down
Maybe Memphis didn't really lose population, nah ha that's probably wishful thinking
Hmmm Maybe Tennessee has passed the 7 Million mark than
Tennessee Undercounted Massachusetts Overcounted
Maybe Tennessee has passed Massachusetts in population than
Maybe Tennessee is now 15th in population instead of 16th
Maybe Davidson County Really Didn't lose population
If Davidson Did Lose Population will Nashville be like Metro Atlanta where All the Growth Happens in the Suburbs but the Central City Hardly Grows, Or Like Metro Houston where Both the Central City And Metro Grow
Maybe Shelby County Grew Faster or More than what was reported, maybe those in poverty didn't complete/care about the Census and thus where Undercounted
If Davidson County losing population becomes a trend and Shelby County keeps growing does that Mean Memphis would eventually become the Largest City again?,....Oh Lord Lol, hope not that would Reignite the Mem-Nash Rivalry all over again Where else it's kinda been dying down
Maybe Memphis didn't really lose population, nah ha that's probably wishful thinking
Where Memphis fails is taking a smaller part of Shelby County compared to Nashville/Davidson
You may be correct when you take Rutherford (341,486), Williamson (247,726), Sumner (196,281) and Wilson (147,727) More outside the county than 715,884.
If you count MSA maybe pass 35 San Jose (2,000,468), 34 Cleveland (2,088,251), 33 Indy (2,111,040).
from 1,989,000
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Maybe Tennessee has passed the 7 Million mark than 
