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Funny that Purdy is not listed as an option. MVP is a week to week thing. Dak was the favorite entering last week. Now he has dropped down to 3rd in Vegas odds.
Your top 5 are
Purdy -200
Lamar +450
Prescott +750
Allen +850
McCaffery +1000
Only 3 games away from the end of the season so it's not too early to be projecting the winner but there still are several key games to play out. The biggest being Ravens @ 49ers this week. The winner of that game could see their QB as the front runner for the award. I still maintain that Lamar, unless he really turns it on statistically to close out the season would be one of the most underwhelming MVP winners we have ever had. But I absolutely think he will jump into the lead if the Ravens beat the 49ers.
Just two weeks ago before the Bills beat the Chiefs and Cowboys in consecutive weeks Allen was around +5500 to win. He has risen dramatically. With a chance to win out and still possibly win the division he could continue to climb.
No surprise the top two are QB's currently holding the one seed in their conference. Historically that is usually who wins the award.
Give me Run CMC, but that's going to be tough because he's on such a talented team. Tyreek certainly deserves it, but I just can't vote for him because I really, really don't like him as a person.
He's really not having an MVP type season though. Of the names that get mentioned frequently as MVP candidates I actually think he is the least deserving. He's 13th in QBR at 58.7 and 7th in passer rating at 98.4.
I bring up QBR specifically because it is historically a great predictor of league MVP's.
The last time a non QB won the MVP award was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson won on the back of his 2000 yard season. The 10 straight league MVP's since then and their QBR's, bold indicates that they led the league in QBR that year:
2013- Peyton Manning 79.0
2014- Aaron Rodgers 77.8
2015 - Cam Newton 61.4
2016 - Matt Ryan 79.6
2017 - Tom Brady 70.6
2018 - Patrick Mahomes 80.3
2019 - Lamar Jackson 83.0
2020 - Aaron Rodgers 79.8
2021 - Aaron Rodgers 69.1
2022 - Patrick Mahomes 79.0
Problem is you're primarily looking at passer ratings. Lamar is way more than just a passer (he's been much better this year than in past years at that, however). He's extremely hard to defend as you never know if he's going to pass, run, hand off, or what. His hand off fakes are about the best I've seen and really can throw off the defense more often than not.
Problem is you're primarily looking at passer ratings. Lamar is way more than just a passer (he's been much better this year than in past years at that, however). He's extremely hard to defend as you never know if he's going to pass, run, hand off, or what. His hand off fakes are about the best I've seen and really can throw off the defense more often than not.
Incorrect. These are QBR not passer rating. They take into account a QB’s running value among other things.
-215..........Brock Purdy
+450.........Lamar Jackson
+650.........Dak Prescott
+1000.......Christian McCaffrey
+1000.......Josh Allen
+2000.......Jalen Hurts
+2500.......Patrick Mahomes
+2500.......Tua Tagovailoa
+3300.......Tyreek Hill
+20000.....C.J. Stroud
+20000.....Jared Goff
+20000.....Trevor Lawrence
Offensive Player of the Year
-160..........Christian McCaffrey
+125.........Tyreek Hill
+6000.......CeeDee Lamb
+6000.......Jalen Hurts
+8000.......A.J. Brown
+8000.......Brock Purdy
+10000.....Deebo Samuel
+10000.....Raheem Mostert
+10000.....Tua Tagovailoa
+15000.....Dak Prescott
+15000.....Derrick Henry
+15000.....Lemar Jackson
+15000.....Patrick Mahomes
+20000.....Amon-Ra St. Brown
+20000.....Josh Allen
+20000.....Stefon Diggs
+20000.....Travis Etienne
+20000.....Travis Kelce
Defensive Player of the Year
Even..........Micah Parsons
+150.........Myles Garrett
+450.........T.J. Watt
+3300.......DaRon Bland
+3300.......Danielle Hunter
+3300.......Josh Allen (JAX)
+5000.......Nick Bosa
+6000.......Maxx Crosby
+8000.......Fred Warner
+8000.......Montez Sweat
+10000.....Aidan Hutchinson
+10000.....Chris Jones
+10000.....Hasson Reddick
+15000.....Chase Young
+20000.....Khalil Mack
+20000.....Roquan Smith
-10000.......Jalen Carter
+1500........Will Anderson
+2000........Devon Witherspoon
+10000......Brian Branch
+10000......Ivan Pace Jr.
+10000......Joey Porter Jr.
+10000......Kelon White
+10000......Tuli Tuipulotu
+15000......Byron Young (LAR)
+15000......DJ Turner
+15000......Deonte Banks
+15000......Emmanuel Forbes
+15000......Jack Campbell
+15000......Lukas Van Ness
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