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Old 10-15-2016, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Spartanburg, SC
4,902 posts, read 7,461,748 times
Reputation: 3877

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ssa78 View Post
People are entitled to their own opinions but not their own facts and certainly not their own science.

There is a large body of polling science that allows some (not all) prediction models to correlate extremely well with actual election day results. FiveThiryEight is probably the best of the batch and combines immense amounts of polling data, weighted appropriately, to give such predictions.

Right now it has Clinton with about a 90% chance to win Virginia and an 80% chance of winning over 270 electoral votes.

So Trump's chances aren't zero (never the case barring not being on the ballot), but I don't think Democrats are wetting their pants about Virginia right now.

We heard the same argument about internal polls in 2012 from the Romney camp, even with the same prediction models had Obama with a 70-90% chance to win in the weeks leading up to election day.

Whatever the actual outcome, I'd probably avoid internal polling and secret turnout machines as an argument for or against any particular candidate's chances.

Wetting-their-pants is obviously hyperbole. But why drag out Al Gore (to fire up millennials . . . really?), why is Michelle so passionate (Beyoncé is her daughters' role model, remember?), why is Obama so agitated and mocking? Why all these women from 20, 30 years ago? Why didn't they file lawsuits against him at the time. Clearly, a billionaire would be susceptible and settle out of court.

Why were so many people so happy to party on with him and not repulsed by his personality and behavior? Why did Ellis Island give Trump their Medal of Honor and picture him with Muhammad Ali and Rosa Parks. Run to Snopes. It's true.

Idk what will happen any more than you. But I don't think it's a slam dunk. The Rest of Virginia is mad as hell and will walk thru hot coals -- hence the 10-15,000 people crowds. Hillary couldn't get Temple University students to fill a small, partially blocked off gym. People might not like Trump but they detest the Clinton's.
Look at Hillary's speeches -- the people behind her looked bored (and as if they wouldn't be there if not paid???). Trumps crowds are loud and happy people.

Good news -- it's almost over.
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Old 10-15-2016, 12:21 PM
 
53 posts, read 74,369 times
Reputation: 60
Didn't realize screaming loudly made a vote count more than casting one silently.

Let's just see what happens in a few weeks. I know I'm certainly ready for this spectacle to be over.
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Old 10-15-2016, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Spartanburg, SC
4,902 posts, read 7,461,748 times
Reputation: 3877
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssa78 View Post
Didn't realize screaming loudly made a vote count more than casting one silently.

Let's just see what happens in a few weeks. I know I'm certainly ready for this spectacle to be over.

LOL Obviously you don't remember the media's euphoria over Obama's massive crowds, roman columns, women fainting.

If Hillary had any devoted fans, we'd be seeing it on NBC/CNN/NYT/WaPo ad nauseum.
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Old 10-15-2016, 12:57 PM
 
Location: Spartanburg, SC
4,902 posts, read 7,461,748 times
Reputation: 3877
And to the comment I received on the reputation board -- my Smith & Wesson stock has gone way up, too.

The last cc (refresher for me) class I took (women only) had about 15 total newbies. The most common comment was fear of going to the mall, especially at night. I told a young woman at a store once that I carry and she said "you look so normal". Lol. You never know who is carrying these days. I look far more like I belong at a garden club meeting.
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Old 10-15-2016, 01:05 PM
 
5,125 posts, read 10,100,771 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ssa78 View Post
Didn't realize screaming loudly made a vote count more than casting one silently.

Let's just see what happens in a few weeks. I know I'm certainly ready for this spectacle to be over.
Trump's campaign in VA is in complete disarray, regardless of how many garden-club ladies packing heat vote for him.

Trump Va. campaign chair Corey Stewart fired for organizing protest outside RNC | WJLAuu

Last edited by JD984; 10-15-2016 at 02:25 PM..
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Old 10-15-2016, 01:13 PM
 
Location: Spartanburg, SC
4,902 posts, read 7,461,748 times
Reputation: 3877
Quote:
Originally Posted by JD984 View Post
Trump's campaign in VA is in complete disarray, regardless of how many garden-club ladies are packing heat.

Trump Va. campaign chair Corey Stewart fired for organizing protest outside RNC | WJLAuu
LOL -- could be, probably is but you never know. . .
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Old 10-15-2016, 06:54 PM
 
Location: U.S.
9,510 posts, read 9,110,504 times
Reputation: 5927
Lightbulb Both candidates have stopped spending in some states

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ffxdata View Post
Trump has pulled resources out of Virginia. Some are interpreting it as him already recognizing his defeat in this state. Do you see Trump winning in Virginia based on how you and your neighbors are planning to vote?

Trump campaign pulls resources out of Virginia - CNNPolitics.com
Would agree that by pulling out of a state, they either feel the state is an easy win or are accepting the low likelihood of winning. Each candidate does this throughout the campaign and even changes throughout an election.

Hillary doesn't spend a dime in Arkansas where bill was governor. Trump isn't spending in Connecticut.

On the other side, if Trump is pulling out of Virginia, it's probably because he's not hopeful about winning. Hillary pulled out of Ohio for the same reason as her poll numbers were considered too low by her standards. There is only so much money available and prioritizing is necessary
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Old 10-15-2016, 09:55 PM
 
2,737 posts, read 5,461,803 times
Reputation: 2305
Clinton is outspending Trump in Ohio:

TV Ad Spending Reveals the States Where Trump and Clinton Are Fighting Hardest

And polls show them tied at this time.
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Old 10-16-2016, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Spartanburg, SC
4,902 posts, read 7,461,748 times
Reputation: 3877
Quote:
Originally Posted by ACWhite View Post
Clinton is outspending Trump in Ohio:

TV Ad Spending Reveals the States Where Trump and Clinton Are Fighting Hardest

And polls show them tied at this time.
There is tremendous pain in Ohio economically. Also, a lot of deplorable, bitter clinging Rednecks. (Rednecks being the only sub-group in America you can slur). Oh, and lots of Catholics.

After the UNESCO vote, many Jews may be alarmed at what the Left is planning for them. Anti-Semitism is rising rapidly in Europe. If you don't know, look it up on Bing or some search engine (no, Google is not your friend).

Anyone who is only getting news from the old media is missing half the story. Not just "faux" news before some witty liberal chimes in. There are lots of places -- try Real Clear Politics for example. They're pretty balanced with what they post.

Gee, I wonder why isn't she 50 points ahead?

Last edited by LynchburgLover; 10-16-2016 at 06:08 AM..
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:32 AM
 
2,737 posts, read 5,461,803 times
Reputation: 2305
Widening lead in VA:

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2016%202016%20report-final

It is a shame that those suffering economically don't understand that Trump has provided no plan that has any realistic chance of changing their situations for the better.
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