Furloughs: Fed Employees in the DMV area (house, landlord)

[VRE332]

All this talk is nonsense. There will be a 11th hour deal and we'll be back in business in no time.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by VRE332

All this talk is nonsense. There will be a 11th hour deal and we'll be back in business in no time.

Finally, the "sense cavalry" has arrived. I must say that people around here seem to be big worriers. That really can't be good for your health.

[ChristineVA]

Originally Posted by VRE332

All this talk is nonsense. There will be a 11th hour deal and we'll be back in business in no time.

I agree with you on this. I keep telling my team, who are worried sick about these furloughs, that this is quite a bit of political theater and at the very last moment possible there will be some "deal" made. I think that if a deal is not made, it is going to reflect very poorly on one of the political parties (not sure which one!!) and neither of them will want to go that far. So we shall see. I tend to be optimistic about such drama with the government.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by ChristineVA

I agree with you on this. I keep telling my team, who are worried sick about these furloughs, that this is quite a bit of political theater and at the very last moment possible there will be some "deal" made. I think that if a deal is not made, it is going to reflect very poorly on one of the political parties (not sure which one!!) and neither of them will want to go that far. So we shall see. I tend to be optimistic about such drama with the government.

I think the Republicans can still remember Newtie's govt. shutdown in the '90s. It wasn't the democratic president who came out upside down from that one.

[vicnice]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Finally, the "sense cavalry" has arrived. I must say that people around here seem to be big worriers. That really can't be good for your health.

And if it does happen just make sure to show your kids or landlord/bank this thread. This is akin to the real estate crisis, "Housing prices will always go hire" now its "The government has unlimited money" both are fallacies.

How exactly do you expect the government to reduce its spend? Lets say they dont lay off employees, how exactly are they going to save money?

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by vicnice

And if it does happen just make sure to show your kids or landlord/bank this thread. This is akin to the real estate crisis, "Housing prices will always go hire" now its "The government has unlimited money" both are fallacies.

How exactly do you expect the government to reduce its spend? Lets say they dont lay off employees, how exactly are they going to save money?

They may not. They might just kick the can down the road and raise taxes once they have the votes in Congress (by the way, the adults/corporate interests are about to take back the Republican Party). Also, continued QE will juice the economy, producing higher revenues. They could get there on increased economic growth, just holding defense spending at current levels or only slightly below. After 9/11 there aren't many politicians on either side who want to look soft on defense.

Keep in mind we're not demobilizing millions of troops like after WWII. We used a lot of Reserves and National Guard who will likely remain in that status. Our regular force levels are actually more at peacetime levels.

You'll know something more serious is afoot when the govt. starts talking about buy-outs. I haven't heard much mention of that.

[shamrock847]

Even if there is an 11th hour deal to avoid sequestration, unless they can also get a budget passed defense is going to be in a rough patch due to the continuing resolution. You won't have anything as dramatic as the furloughs, but you can expect a lot of contractors to lose their jobs as contracts aren't renewed or higher priced people are rolled off and replaced with cheaper ones to keep overall spending within the continuing resolution levels.

If you look at the polls, quite a few people on both sides of the political spectrum favor cutting defense further. It may not be apparent here since many people are tied to the industry or government but a lot of the rest of the country thinks differently.

[shamrock847]

Originally Posted by vicnice

How exactly do you expect the government to reduce its spend? Lets say they dont lay off employees, how exactly are they going to save money?

It's not so much the number or pay of government employees or contractors that is driving the crisis in government spending it is the rising costs of health care (specifically medicare, medicaid) and social security that are going to eat the rest of the budget. Unless you address that, cutting a few hundred thousand employees is just a drop in the bucket.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by ChristineVA

I keep telling my team, who are worried sick about these furloughs, that this is quite a bit of political theater and at the very last moment possible there will be some "deal" made.

Harry Reid was certainly making coy little hints in that direction this morning, so you may be right. At the same time, my gut tells me we will see a little bit of it happen. A test, so both sides can say they attempted to stick a toe in the water.

I also think it's a nice excuse to give the shaft to a lot of older employees. It's no coincidence that the people the contractors are letting go this month are all over the age of 55 and had been with their employers 20+ years.

[car54]

The draconian measures that would be necessary to start fixing this country's finances would be so unpalatable that they would be political suicide. Re-election is these peoples' number one priority...so it ain't going to happen.

They will kick the can down the road until the road ends. That will be the day of reckoning....total collapse and then start picking up the pieces, and start over.