NJ Real Estate Market. (mortgage, loan, first time home buyer)
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Oh I know, but I wanted to move further south originally. We stayed for family reasons but, if we can profit huge, I might say bye bye.
Further south South, or South Jersey?
And have you considered NORTH North Jersey, as in Sussex County, or is that too far for you?
It has some beautiful country areas and hunting spots and borders both Pennsylvania and upstate New York. My sister lives there and she is more conservative than I am, but within a normal range (not a complete right-wing conspiracy whacko like another of our sisters, lol).
Both South Jersey AND further south, but the latter can’t happen until my ex smartens up and gets her butt out of NY.
We heavily considered Pine Beach but I’d have had to change jobs or quit working completely due to the commute. But that was then. My wife is permanently working from home and I drive an EV now. So it’s very doable for us if we had the stomach for another move. It’s enticing if a ridiculous profit is part of the package.
Both South Jersey AND further south, but the latter can’t happen until my ex smartens up and gets her butt out of NY.
We heavily considered Pine Beach but I’d have had to change jobs or quit working completely due to the commute. But that was then. My wife is permanently working from home and I drive an EV now. So it’s very doable for us if we had the stomach for another move. It’s enticing if a ridiculous profit is part of the package.
Things are great in my neck of the woods here in South Jersey. Prices are high but nothing like northern Jersey. Taxes are much less here too!
Hoboken has been pretty crazy as well. We were most definitely below pre-pandemic last Feb, but things started heating up in spring and haven't let up. Similar to the 'burbs, open houses appear to be a combat sport these days.
I'm going to chalk it up to pent up demand that still hasn't been filled due to lower average inventory over the past two years. The prices seem unsustainable, but then again, I've said that before. Thankful that I don't need to participate in this insanity and feel sorry for those that do.
There was an open house on my street this weekend, and the entire street was flooded with at least 20 cars at one point. This house is also one of the least desirable houses in the immediate area due to what it looks like and location. I'm not sure what the deal with this house was, but it was sold last year to new owners (private sale/never put on the market) and they are asking ~20% more than they bought it for and there were no renovations done.
Also February is usually one of the slowest months for home sales. May/June seems to be when everything goes up for sale.
I have been on the fence for so long that now I believe that's where I live!!! here are a few lessons I learned.
1. Lower interest rates and Covid (low inventory/low construction/low supplies) created a perfect storm where people with means committed to long term living in an area of their choice and were willing to over extend on their mortgage payment.
2. This squeezed the supply even more. Add to that forbearance, food stamps, banning foreclosure further prevented market forces from playing out. So now banks have inventory building on their books which they are compelled to hold back thanks to government.
3. Government printed a boatload and got through the backdoor to help you run your business.
4. Jobs in the entire retail, hospitality and to a large extent manufacturing were lost over a course of 2 years. So you have a market where the consumer is not gain fully employed yet the cost of one of his primary needs has shot up to unaffordable level.
5. Now even if we have decided to let the pandemic know its officially terminated on Mar1 does the workforce have enough jobs with matching pay to pay an increased price with higher rate of interest.
6. The above statement is to point out how absurd it is for industry and 'informed sources' who created this mass hysteria that low interest rates is enabling first time home buyers to buy homes! In 2019 pre pandemic the interest rate on 30 yr fixed was around 3.7 - 3.8. During pandemic lets assume it went down to 2.2 - but the sectors that create bulk of employment were paralyzed - then "who" exactly was enabled to buy houses.
7. Worst is the current paranoia where people feel markets will only continue to rise up. I agree there are families like mine trying to make a move for kids school or slightly more space but the fact stays that none of these families are 'homeless' or sleeping on the streets. So when the mortgage to income ration starts skewing at say 50% or higher people will make the most sensible decision and stay put where they are.
But sanity is currently on vacation and we must all feed each others paranoia to help builders and banks make profit while we diligently dig our own mortgage/foreclosure graves. Uncle Sam needs out sacrifice.
I have been on the fence for so long that now I believe that's where I live!!! here are a few lessons I learned.
1. Lower interest rates and Covid (low inventory/low construction/low supplies) created a perfect storm where people with means committed to long term living in an area of their choice and were willing to over extend on their mortgage payment.
2. This squeezed the supply even more. Add to that forbearance, food stamps, banning foreclosure further prevented market forces from playing out. So now banks have inventory building on their books which they are compelled to hold back thanks to government.
3. Government printed a boatload and got through the backdoor to help you run your business.
4. Jobs in the entire retail, hospitality and to a large extent manufacturing were lost over a course of 2 years. So you have a market where the consumer is not gain fully employed yet the cost of one of his primary needs has shot up to unaffordable level.
5. Now even if we have decided to let the pandemic know its officially terminated on Mar1 does the workforce have enough jobs with matching pay to pay an increased price with higher rate of interest.
6. The above statement is to point out how absurd it is for industry and 'informed sources' who created this mass hysteria that low interest rates is enabling first time home buyers to buy homes! In 2019 pre pandemic the interest rate on 30 yr fixed was around 3.7 - 3.8. During pandemic lets assume it went down to 2.2 - but the sectors that create bulk of employment were paralyzed - then "who" exactly was enabled to buy houses.
7. Worst is the current paranoia where people feel markets will only continue to rise up. I agree there are families like mine trying to make a move for kids school or slightly more space but the fact stays that none of these families are 'homeless' or sleeping on the streets. So when the mortgage to income ration starts skewing at say 50% or higher people will make the most sensible decision and stay put where they are.
But sanity is currently on vacation and we must all feed each others paranoia to help builders and banks make profit while we diligently dig our own mortgage/foreclosure graves. Uncle Sam needs out sacrifice.
You can also add that work from home really pushed out the millennials who were renting from areas like NYC, Hoboken, JC and so on to the suburbs to buy their first home which the wave really pushed demand up suddenly. Now in 2022 we are dealing with inflation, which is pumping up home prices another 10-20% this year alone.
There will be probably be weakening demand later this year as covid rules are pealed back, and people start moving back to the cities to go into the office. I really don't see home prices going down at all especially with inflation and there really still seems to be too much demand and not enough supply in NJ, especially with single family homes not really being built anymore due to Mt. Laurel doctrine.
You can also add that work from home really pushed out the millennials who were renting from areas like NYC, Hoboken, JC and so on to the suburbs to buy their first home which the wave really pushed demand up suddenly. Now in 2022 we are dealing with inflation, which is pumping up home prices another 10-20% this year alone.
There will be probably be weakening demand later this year as covid rules are pealed back, and people start moving back to the cities to go into the office. I really don't see home prices going down at all especially with inflation and there really still seems to be too much demand and not enough supply in NJ, especially with single family homes not really being built anymore due to Mt. Laurel doctrine.
I agree with both of you, completely, and the bolded here emphasizing that home prices aren't going to decrease, and that's unfortunate particularly to first-time homebuyers. I wish this wasn't the case, but I don't see a 2008 scenario. Truth in Lending and Dodd-Frank introduced responsible lending practices, and banks are very heavily regulated. Almost everyone in the last 10 years has taken out fixed-rate loans, and right now anyone under 640 on the credit isn't going to make it through FHA or conventional. Banks are very careful on who and how they loan to these days.
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