Minnesota Senate Race: Smith vs Lewis (Minneapolis, Virginia: 2014, house, live in)

[Danny K]

Hey All,

I was wondering what are all your thoughts on the MN Senate Race in a couple weeks? It appears that Lewis is strongly tightening the gap, and might have a decent chance of taking the senate seat? I would really love to see Lewis win the seat! What do you make of the chances? I know that Tina Smith supported the ANTIFA rioting. Is that making her unpopular at all? I live in Virginia, and was wondering about your perspectives from the people who live in Minnesota?

How good of a chance does Lewis have?

[demtion35]

According to MPR, it is a very close, so no one could really know for sure, so,,,

[Yosh01]

Originally Posted by Danny K

Hey All,

I know that Tina Smith supported the ANTIFA rioting.

Surely you know that is a preposterous statement.

Tina Smith isn't a very effective campaigner. I suspect there are also a lot of Minnesotans who are still pissed at the way Al Franken was banished which dilutes their support for Smith. If Lewis were to win, I suspect he'd only be a one term Senator. He's somewhat of a buffoon in my opinion and too fractious for most Minnesotans. Who knows? Maybe Franken would run against him in six years.

[Minntoaz]

It looks like she won by quite a lot last time but I don't think her opponent was as strong. I think Lewis will take it based on the overall sentiments in MN.

[Tyryztoll]

Oh boy, I was hoping an out of stater would toss another bottomless political thread into the Minnesota forum because Lord knows we haven't had enough of them this year. Maybe someone from one of the international forums can start a thread inquiring about the Carver County race for dog catcher next. I'll be waiting with bated dog breath.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by Minntoaz

It looks like she won by quite a lot last time but I don't think her opponent was as strong. I think Lewis will take it based on the overall sentiments in MN.

I also feel that Minnesota becomes more and more of a purple state as years go on, especially after all the rioting. Also it was only by around 300,000 votes she won I believe. I also think that election was a low turnout since it was midterm. Midterm elections always tend to have lower turnouts.

[2x3x29x41]

Originally Posted by Danny K

I also feel that Minnesota becomes more and more of a purple state as years go on, especially after all the rioting.

'you feel'? What you 'feel' is meaningless. All that matters is what happens. And what has happened as the last 14 years have gone by is that the DFL (I'll let you look up with that means) has won 20 consecutive statewide races.

Originally Posted by Danny K

Also it was only by around 300,000 votes she won I believe.

LOL... 'only' 300,000 votes? Actually, it was ~275,000 - which was more than 10% of the less than 2.6 million votes cast in that race. To put it another way, her margin was greater than that of Reagan in his 1980 election victory, and I must say I've never heard anyone state that Reagan 'only' won by 9.7%.

Originally Posted by Danny K

I also think that election was a low turnout since it was midterm. Midterm elections always tend to have lower turnouts.

You've identified a difference between 2020 and 2018. But you haven't made a case for why that difference is supposed to somehow work to Smith's detriment. I will note that the last two Senate races that the GOP has won in Minnesota (2002, 1994) came during mid-term elections.

**************************************

Having dispensed with that silliness, onto the race.

Most prognosticators rate it LIKELY D. Cook has it SAFE D, while the RCP average posts it as TOSSUP (while having Smith's lead at 5.8% - a seemingly odd incongruency). 538 gives Smith a 92% chance of winning. The three polls of the race released in the last ten days peg Smith at +11(partisan D), +1, and +4.

I wouldn't call the race safe for Smith by any means, though she is still certainly the favorite. I think that the Republicans would have been better served had they gone with someone other than Lewis, but he had no serious challengers*. It is clear that Smith is not a dynamic candidate. In years not so favorable to Democrats in general (think 2014, 2010, etc.) it is easy to imagine that she might be very vulnerable.

*Cynthia Gail, who came in second during the primary, is a complete nobody. John Berman, who came in third, has a lot to say in his candidate profile submission about the Vulcan mind-meld. At that point, I stopped digging into the field.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Tina Smith will probably win by around 10%.

[2x3x29x41]

Off on a slight tangent here, from the Senate to the House. Specifically, a former House member from Minnesota.

Former Minnesota Rep. Jim Ramstad, a moderate Republican lawmaker whose own battle with addiction turned him into a legislative champion for those in recovery, died Thursday.

He was 74 and had been ailing from Parkinson’s disease, his former chief of staff Dean Peterson said in a note announcing Ramstad’s death.

Ramstad represented Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District for nine terms, retiring in 2009. He was routinely elected with two-thirds or more of the vote in his suburban district near Minneapolis.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/1...-help-has-died

Jim Ramstad was one of the good guys.

[Kayekaye]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

Tina Smith will probably win by around 10%.

Nope looks like she only won by about 4%. 168,800 votes to be precise according to
https://www.google.com/search?q=jaso...obile&ie=UTF-8

MN is Democrat but only by a very SLIM margin, as usual. The frustration is that you never know it. It’s usually just a small margin.