Miami Sees Its First Population Drop in Decades

[elchevere]

Speaking of growth, no slowdown in other areas of the MSA. One such example, Boca:

https://apple.news/AqgLQyKUFTTGehZcqqlBXEQ

Meanwhile, I’d refer to Miami Dade’s overall 0.8% decline as a statistical rounding error—certainly not a mass exodus, recognizing that foreign migration—an important component of the County’s population—was held back during the 3 year period looked at due to Covid restrictions. Will be interesting to see 2023 results among this group particularly as South America turns more leftist and experiences unrest; Ecuador the most recent example.

(Typing this as I prepare for the approaching hurricane/tropical storm….from San Diego…my luck, lol).

Originally Posted by bale002

How meaningful are these quarterly statistics, especially during the anomaly caused by the virus scare?

I would look at 10Y vs. 10Y data, which would also smooth out the 2020-2023 fluctuations. So let’s see in seven or so years who has come and who has gone.

As for the coastal condo market, I see little inventory and steady prices, maybe some minor fluctuations, but not noticeably steep drops of 20% or 50%.

My gut feeling is that Miami and Dade County, as well as all of Florida, will continue to grow, barring a natural disaster, though probably at a slower pace compared to the previous 20-30 years, and not without spurts of two-way volatility from time to time, but mostly on the upside.

Good Luck!

[Corrie22]

you know, is this Miami?.....or Miami Dade? the internet is saying two different things

Miami has a 2023 population of 435,919. It is also the county seat of Miami-Dade County. Miami is currently declining at a rate of -0.45% annually and its population has decreased by -1.35% since the most recent census, which recorded a population of 441,889 in 2020.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...-fl-population

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Miami-Dade County, Florida's estimated 2023 population is 2,763,366 with a growth rate of 0.75% in the past year according to the most recent United States census data.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...nty-population

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

you know, is this Miami?.....or Miami Dade? the internet is saying two different things

Miami has a 2023 population of 435,919. It is also the county seat of Miami-Dade County. Miami is currently declining at a rate of -0.45% annually and its population has decreased by -1.35% since the most recent census, which recorded a population of 441,889 in 2020.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...-fl-population

-----------

Miami-Dade County, Florida's estimated 2023 population is 2,763,366 with a growth rate of 0.75% in the past year according to the most recent United States census data.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...nty-population

They never should have changed the name of the county, it confuses people. Well, that was the intention and they succeeded.

Personally, I still call it Dade. Period.

Anyway, accurate or not, quarterly statistics (best guesses and possibly rounding errors as mentioned) over an anomalous three-year period need at least a decade of year-on-year data to be meaningful, whether City of Miami or Dade County or whatever geographical unit.

[Corrie22]

well it's annoying as it can be...

you read some article about ”Miami”....and have to figure out they are talking about everything from Florida City to Aventura....or worse, figure out that they are only talking about Miami Beach, another city entirely

...then read another article....and have to figure out they are only talking about Miami City limits

that's these idiots that write these articles

[popcorn247]

Originally Posted by elchevere

Speaking of growth, no slowdown in other areas of the MSA. One such example, Boca:



(Typing this as I prepare for the approaching hurricane/tropical storm….from San Diego…my luck, lol).

Good luck to you elchevere! I have a brother in-law in the town of Orange.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by CXT2000

Another factor for the decrease, Miamians on average are spending 81% of their income on housing, most unaffordable market in the United States. I compared it to YoY for August, the good news is that the % is down, from 87% to 81%. Still stupidly high, but still progress. This is not including food, utilities or insurance/other taxes.

Unfortunately in today world you have to dig in to most statistics as they can be eaily manipulated. They're showing a projected median household income of $48,125. For actual people who own homes this simply isn't the truth.

Scroll to page 6 of the report linked below. While $48k was the median household income that includes the median income of Owners and Renters. If you look at the actual people who own homes they have a median income of $68k. And that is county wide. Look at Miami Shores for example. The median renter household makes $48k but the median home owner household makes $128K.

http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu/publicat...dix_061120.pdf

And even this is misleading becasue they are using the median value of single family homes and not condos.

Here is the problem when using median income with just single familiy homes. This ASSUMES there are a proportional number of houses to the number of households. In a place like Miami this just isn't so.

So in Miami-Dade county we have approximately 1M households. But we only have 500k single family homes. Therefore the household making the median income is really at the bottom half of the households who own homes. This is why you see the absurd affordability numbers. It assumes a house in the 20th percentile need to afford a house in a market where there are only enough houses for the top 50%.