Miami Sees Its First Population Drop in Decades (Miami Beach, Aventura: renter, insurance)

[jr8999]

Originally Posted by gixxer1000

Higher income people are coming in and pushing lower income people out.
Overall I think this is fundamentally good for Miami for a couple reasons.

In the near future we will have many new neighborhoods creating a more diverse set of options making the city even more desirable.

You describe a classic case of gentrification. It's happened in every city you mentioned. How is it fundamentally good for Miami? ...more rich folk moving into the "new" neighborhoods that the current inhabitants will no longer be able to afford? In other cities this has increased affordable housing shortages and in turn homelessness. I'm all for the evolution of a city but along with the "progress" we must also make some concessions for low income housing. Miami should learn from other city's mistakes but it's doubtful that will happen give our track record.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by jr8999

You describe a classic case of gentrification. It's happened in every city you mentioned. How is it fundamentally good for Miami? ...more rich folk moving into the "new" neighborhoods that the current inhabitants will no longer be able to afford? In other cities this has increased affordable housing shortages and in turn homelessness. I'm all for the evolution of a city but along with the "progress" we must also make some concessions for low income housing. Miami should learn from other city's mistakes but it's doubtful that will happen give our track record.

Because I'm not approaching it as an idealogue. Gentrification is good. Do you really want neighborhoods to stay slums? If the poor people own in these neighborhoods they will rise with the gentrification. I live in a neighborhood were the older poorer people own homes that they bought for $150k and the new people are coming in and buying the houses for $1.5M. The people getting gentrified aren't complaining.

Things can become unafordable from both the supply or demand side. In our case the demand is what is pushing prices up. To say that more people in Miami making more money is somehow a bad thing is laughable.

Chasing low income housing and homeless only incentivies bad behaviour. You should be looking to be productive and get more pay or move to a place where you can afford.

As far as homelessness the vast majority of it stems from mental ilness and drug addiction. when you go to the shelters and find people on the street these are people that would be homeless even if housing was considered "affordable". Unless housing is free they are going to be homeless.

[CXT2000]

This is an interesting graphic

Miami: "According to Bank of America internal data, its population was fairly stable between 2020 & 2022. However, in the most recent two quarters, there was a fairly large outflow of residents (Exhibit 6)"

Q2 2023 in Miami had a faster population decline than Q1 2023, the only other city to have a similar pattern to this was Portland. Charlotte, Nashville and Vegas are the only ones to see a rate acceleration in Q2 compared to Q1, other major cities have stabilized.

[Corrie22]

..but doesn't the graph show that overall St Louis and Detroit lost 3 times more people?...just over a longer period of time

even just the last year....2022 to 2023....looks like all 3 lost the same amount

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

..but doesn't the graph show that overall St Louis and Detroit lost 3 times more people?...just over a longer period of time

even just the last year....2022 to 2023....looks like all 3 lost the same amount

They both did, yeah. This chart and others use these three cities since these cities have the highest housing stock relative to their population, I was not expecting Miami to have a high exodus in 2023 so far either, to be honest (I don't think any of us did). I love looking at population trends for all cities, so I'm fascinated by the 2023 trends so far in all cities, especially Florida since there's so many people moving there.

Of course, the risk is if the trend continues, the housing market will crash hard in Miami, which will have both good and bad consequences. Commercial real-estate will also suffer, I won't be surprised if all the office proposals are scaled back, delayed, changed to mix use (which IMO, best case scenario) or cancelled.

[Corrie22]

”This is especially the case given that new construction has also increased at a much faster pace in Miami
than in St. Louis and Detroit, leading to a rapid rise in housing stock (Exhibit 7).”

[CXT2000]

Another factor for the decrease, Miamians on average are spending 81% of their income on housing, most unaffordable market in the United States. I compared it to YoY for August, the good news is that the % is down, from 87% to 81%. Still stupidly high, but still progress. This is not including food, utilities or insurance/other taxes.

Miami is again the least affordable housing market this August. The median list price for a home increased to $605,000, where homeowners can expect to spend $3,250 monthly on mortgage and property tax payments. Low inventory and high demand across multiple generations have kept housing prices high for Miami residents

By Miami metro cities





https://www.realtyhop.com/blog/affor...ndex-aug-2023/

[beach43ofus]

I wonder if the Miami condo collapse scared people away from all the high rise condo's found in Miami?

The red alert went out of higher insurance rates, and huge HOA assessments, to build the concrete repair reserves.

As far as gentrification...Delray Beach used to have a large poor section West of the main Atlantic Blvd strip. That run down has been shrinking as higher priced buildovers are pushing the poor folks out. Most see that as a good thing...unless your the ones getting pushed out.

[bale002]

How meaningful are these quarterly statistics, especially during the anomaly caused by the virus scare?

I would look at 10Y vs. 10Y data, which would also smooth out the 2020-2023 fluctuations. So let’s see in seven or so years who has come and who has gone.

As for the coastal condo market, I see little inventory and steady prices, maybe some minor fluctuations, but not noticeably steep drops of 20% or 50%.

My gut feeling is that Miami and Dade County, as well as all of Florida, will continue to grow, barring a natural disaster, though probably at a slower pace compared to the previous 20-30 years, and not without spurts of two-way volatility from time to time, but mostly on the upside.

Good Luck!

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by bale002

How meaningful are these quarterly statistics, especially during the anomaly caused by the virus scare?

I would look at 10Y vs. 10Y data, which would also smooth out the 2020-2023 fluctuations. So let’s see in seven or so years who has come and who has gone.

As for the coastal condo market, I see little inventory and steady prices, maybe some minor fluctuations, but not noticeably steep drops of 20% or 50%.

My gut feeling is that Miami and Dade County, as well as all of Florida, will continue to grow, barring a natural disaster, though probably at a slower pace compared to the previous 20-30 years, and not without spurts of two-way volatility from time to time, but mostly on the upside.

Good Luck!

Quarterly stats are pretty accurate, it paints a picture of what major cities have gone through since the pandemic and expats main destinations. Miami is declining rather rapidly in 2023, but it's best to wait until next year to properly compare everything from Birth/Death rates, immigration, migration and all that. Covid or not, Miami was going to decline anyways, 2017 was the first year that net gains county wide were 10,000 and it continue to drop since.