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Shocker of all shocks the NYS court of appeals is allowing a new congressional map to be drawn in 24’ you can bet the Dems will try to gerrymander again. Kind of makes the santos seat of less significance because who ever wins it will likely be in a district that is totally different. If they are smart they won’t go as crazy as last time or they will end up with another lawsuit as gerrymandering is barred by the NYS constitution.
You knew this was going to happen when democrat majority in Albany senate forced governor to place majority of liberal, progressive judges on top court panel.
Sad news is democrats only require slight modifications to a few districts in order to make them democrat majority. That is what they will do....
Shocker of all shocks the NYS court of appeals is allowing a new congressional map to be drawn in 24’ you can bet the Dems will try to gerrymander again. Kind of makes the santos seat of less significance because who ever wins it will likely be in a district that is totally different. If they are smart they won’t go as crazy as last time or they will end up with another lawsuit as gerrymandering is barred by the NYS constitution.
I would expect them to go with a more toned down map to keep it potentially out of court. With that said, after what recently transpired in Ohio (very similar voter passed Referendum in the State Constitution) and North Carolina (not the same voter passed Referendum in the State Constitution, but overturned in 2022 on similar State Constitution grounds), it wouldn't surprise me if they took the same attitude as the Legislatures in those states and went balls to the wall
I would expect them to go with a more toned down map to keep it potentially out of court. With that said, after what recently transpired in Ohio (very similar voter passed Referendum in the State Constitution) and North Carolina (not the same voter passed Referendum in the State Constitution, but overturned in 2022 on similar State Constitution grounds), it wouldn't surprise me if they took the same attitude as the Legislatures in those states and went balls to the wall
The thing is they tried going balls to the wall last time and it literally backfired and blew up in their faces. But this is the Dem run legislature we are talking about so who knows. Regardless the commission gets first crack at creating the map. I haven’t really analyzed it myself but an NBC analyst said the new GOP gerrymandered map in NC will likely negate any gains in NY from a similar map
The thing is they tried going balls to the wall last time and it literally backfired and blew up in their faces. But this is the Dem run legislature we are talking about so who knows. Regardless the commission gets first crack at creating the map. I haven’t really analyzed it myself but an NBC analyst said the new GOP gerrymandered map in NC will likely negate any gains in NY from a similar map
That was part of my point. North Carolina, Ohio and New York all drew balls to the wall maps in 2022 and all got thrown out. Ohio drew another balls to the wall map the court rejected, but basically ran the clock out. North Carolina drew a balls to the wall map for next year. Granted, it's different state courts, but the fact North Carolina and Ohio eventually got away with a balls to the wall map, might give NY Democrats more of a reason to try it.
As far the North Carolina and NY gerrymanders canceling each other out from 2022, that is probably a fair analysis. In NC two safe Democratic seats became safe Republican seats, one swing district the Democrats hold became a safe GOP seat and one Dem leaning/solid district became a swing district. We don't know what the NY maps will be, but I could see something similar. The bigger impacts are likely to be Dem leaning districts in which Republicans hold or did hold ( Santos, D'Esposito, Lawler), will likely be made harder to kerp, though again too early to tell
That was part of my point. North Carolina, Ohio and New York all drew balls to the wall maps in 2022 and all got thrown out. Ohio drew another balls to the wall map the court rejected, but basically ran the clock out. North Carolina drew a balls to the wall map for next year. Granted, it's different state courts, but the fact North Carolina and Ohio eventually got away with a balls to the wall map, might give NY Democrats more of a reason to try it.
As far the North Carolina and NY gerrymanders canceling each other out from 2022, that is probably a fair analysis. In NC two safe Democratic seats became safe Republican seats, one swing district the Democrats hold became a safe GOP seat and one Dem leaning/solid district became a swing district. We don't know what the NY maps will be, but I could see something similar. The bigger impacts are likely to be Dem leaning districts in which Republicans hold or did hold ( Santos, D'Esposito, Lawler), will likely be made harder to kerp, though again too early to tell
Ahhh I see what you are saying now good analysis. Still even with the NY court makeup changing I find it tough to believe the courts would allow a blatant on its face gerrymandered map when it’s explicitly barred in the NYS constitution. Still they could sure give it a try what have they got to lose
Ahhh I see what you are saying now good analysis. Still even with the NY court makeup changing I find it tough to believe the courts would allow a blatant on its face gerrymandered map when it’s explicitly barred in the NYS constitution. Still they could sure give it a try what have they got to lose
It happened in Ohio with virtually the exact same language in their state constitution so the well they did it so less do it to wouldn't completely surprise me. With that said, I would still expect a gerrymander, though a less aggressive one than what was tried in 2022
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