If Chicago was removed, would Illinois be a red or purple state? (Rockford: centers, moving)

[Mathguy]

You could just take past election results and population weights and project them with one group removed.

[DaBears02]

I’d say IL is purple if just taking out the city proper but red if taking out the entire MSA.

[Maintainschaos]

I think the confusing part here is that people are pointing to one or two presidential elections and then saying "aha a red state!" when, by the very definition of being a "purple state," the votes will sometimes be for the Republicans and sometimes for the Democrats. ...so sometimes the state will vote "red" (e.g., Trump and Bush) and sometimes it will vote "blue" (e.g., Obama and (Bill) Clinton). Not to mention that you have to get more granular than something as general as a presidential election to really figure out the answer. Most of the population of central Illinois (the largest population block in IL outside of Chicagoland) is a mixture of white-collar conservatives, blue-collar democrats, with a smattering of mostly liberal college students tossed in. It's far more complex than "Look at the time Trump won Decatur or when Quinn won Illinois with just basically one county."

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by Maintainschaos

I think the confusing part here is that people are pointing to one or two presidential elections and then saying "aha a red state!" when, by the very definition of being a "purple state," the votes will sometimes be for the Republicans and sometimes for the Democrats. ...so sometimes the state will vote "red" (e.g., Trump and Bush) and sometimes it will vote "blue" (e.g., Obama and (Bill) Clinton). Not to mention that you have to get more granular than something as general as a presidential election to really figure out the answer. Most of the population of central Illinois (the largest population block in IL outside of Chicagoland) is a mixture of white-collar conservatives, blue-collar democrats, with a smattering of mostly liberal college students tossed in. It's far more complex than "Look at the time Trump won Decatur or when Quinn won Illinois with just basically one county."

Again, the largest population block in Illinois outside of Chicagoland are the St. Louis-side suburbs in Madison and St. Clair counties in southwest IL, not in the center of the state. A lot of people seem to miss this part of Illinois when analysing it.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Again, the largest population block in Illinois outside of Chicagoland are the St. Louis-side suburbs in Madison and St. Clair counties in southwest IL, not in the center of the state. A lot of people seem to miss this part of Illinois when analysing it.

The sad truth is that for way too many in the Chicago metro, the state pretty much ends at furthest burb and then there are some "island" college towns.

The Chicago metro is about 75% of the states population.

Chicago is about 20%

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

The sad truth is that for way too many in the Chicago metro, the state pretty much ends at furthest burb and then there are some "island" college towns.

The Chicago metro is about 75% of the states population.

Chicago is about 20%

...What's that got to do with what I just said?

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Again, the largest population block in Illinois outside of Chicagoland are the St. Louis-side suburbs in Madison and St. Clair counties in southwest IL, not in the center of the state. A lot of people seem to miss this part of Illinois when analysing it.

Well yes and no, to a certain extent. The Metro East is the largest partial MSA in Illinois outside of Chicagoland, true. But, at nearly 2 million people, central IL (Peoria + B/N + Springfield + Champaign + Decatur) is significantly higher in population in aggregate than the Metro East. At this point, due to UIUC, Champaign is certainly the most reliably liberal-voting MSA in IL outside of Cook county.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

...What's that got to do with what I just said?

I'm explaining why people "miss that area" and also miss pretty much the other areas too due to the Metro area being the focus.

[Nodpete]

If Chicago was removed, would Illinois be a red or purple state?

Not sure what color it would be but it would be a much nicer State !

[FoxValleyTrotter]

Illinois would still be a blue state without Chicagoland. This is because the Metro East, a historically blue region, is the largest the largest metro area outside of Chicago. In short, most medium-sized to large metro areas in the state would have to be "removed" before it is truly red.