This has been done already but Twin Falls has exploded. Unrecognizable today. (Boise: living, centers)

[toomuchthinking]

Originally Posted by AnythingOutdoors

The US is experiencing a housing shortage, particularly in California which under-built housing for decades. Hence the California exodus to other parts of the the West.

Twin Falls has low crime, relatively mild climate with little snow, abundant water, and affordable housing. While big box stores aren't my favorite, there is local demand and they're serving the local population. This is better than people driving long distances for shopping. There's nothing sad about this for families that have been able to afford a house and find a good quality of life.

Change is just a part of life.

I'm seeing homes averaging $400K around Twin now. That's absurd. 5 years ago you could get into something big below $300K. And 10 years ago you could slide into a decent home for $200K. So if like you say the CA exodus is causing this, then plan on the average home in Twin to be $500K + in a couple years. That's not a family town anymore, that's another saga of terrible unaffordability in part also to private equity investors.

[ejisme]

Originally Posted by toomuchthinking

I'm seeing homes averaging $400K around Twin now. That's absurd. 5 years ago you could get into something big below $300K. And 10 years ago you could slide into a decent home for $200K. So if like you say the CA exodus is causing this, then plan on the average home in Twin to be $500K + in a couple years. That's not a family town anymore, that's another saga of terrible unaffordability in part also to private equity investors.

Just my observations. Much of the home building in the area has come to a mostly standstill. I'd guess due to construction loan, mortgage rates, material shortages and likely lack of some skilled workers. Here in Mt Home we need more housing like most of southern Idaho and other parts of the country. Four big developments were approved in the 2019/2020 period (~200 - 300 units ea), and two smaller developments with a few dozen homes. One of the big ones is building out as they sell homes. Two of the other ones have had inground infrastructure put in, but then mostly stopped now for about a year, with occasional work, but still nothing actually built above ground. The other big one is mostly dormant. One of the little ones is moving quickly, the other one has no work done, just the sign up saying houses are coming.

Something strange about that little development. It's a group of townhouses. They put in the foundation and have built the townhouses, to include roofs and windows, but they still haven't put in the electrical and plumbing. They are very shallow crawlspace foundations. Some poor electricians and plumbers are going to have to dig trenches under these townhouses and work on their backs to hook these houses up. Same with HVAC. I can only guess the builder was able to get foundation and carpenter workers, but had a long wait for the other specialties.

Anyway, it's not from lack of zoning and project approval from the city, but housing starts seem to have slowed down for other reasons. It might be the same in the Twin Falls area too.

[banjomike]

Small and quiet always sounds really good for folks who are living in a place a lot of people, but people get more accustomed to the lifestyle a big city than they realize.
Once they are actually living in the isolated small town or in the countryside they crave, many soon become bored and miss their old home, especially if they feel they don’t fit in with their neighbors.
But some do find they love their new place and stay forever. I think it’s impossible to predict how it will be unless a person comes, visits, and gets to know what they’re getting into a bit at a time.
Idaho has never been a state everyone likes. It’s state of extremes in about every way, but She does call out to some people and always has.
Old Mother Idaho is like the bad girlfriend (or boyfriend) who won’t let you go. She’s always trouble but leave or stay, no one ever forgets her.

[AnythingOutdoors]

Originally Posted by toomuchthinking

I'm seeing homes averaging $400K around Twin now. That's absurd. 5 years ago you could get into something big below $300K. And 10 years ago you could slide into a decent home for $200K. So if like you say the CA exodus is causing this, then plan on the average home in Twin to be $500K + in a couple years. That's not a family town anymore, that's another saga of terrible unaffordability in part also to private equity investors.

It's worth noting that the median home price in California is close to $800k. That's for the entire state, so the numbers are much higher near expensive metros. For example, San Jose's median price is $1.4M. Home ownership is out of reach for someone with a $200k salary in the Bay Area, but if most of that salary can be taken remotely then a $400k home price in Twin is a steal. In large part this is why, despite much hand wringing from commentators, Idaho real estate prices have not crashed.

And as ejisme mentions, higher interest rates have slowed new home construction. The same thing has happened in the Treasure Valley. High interest rates increased the cost of financing for home builders, which makes fewer projects pencil out. And most existing homeowners with mortgages have locked-in 30-year sub 3% rates -- selling for these folks would me getting less house for the same money, so everyone is staying put.

Long term, I don't anticipate Idaho housing decreasing. Just my opinion (which isn't worth much), the entire Intermoutain West region has been underpriced for the last 10-15 years. Urban areas in this region (Spokane/CdA, Boise, SLC, CO Front Range) have relatively mild climate, pleasant cities, natural beauty, and unparalleled access to the great outdoors. I think what we've seen during the pandemic is a step up in prices that reflect the underlying value, which has since moderated, but will gradually increase as people continue to be draw here.

[banjomike]

I think our real estate stayed far too low for far too long.

Prices had already risen in our neighboring states, which naturally put a spotlight on the low Idaho prices.
It was inevitable ours would go up then. And that left Wyoming as the bargain basement Western state for a short time.

Once a land rush starts only those who moved fast get the hot deals. Once excess housing is sold, all later sales are at higher prices. The longer the boom, the higher the prices rise.

[heavymind]

Originally Posted by Mister Torgue

I actually talk to these people on the ground here in ID and no, the primary reason isn't housing which is what was commenting on with your statement. Cost of living is part of it but not all of it. The majority tell me it's the deterioration of all of it. Quality of life, crime, safety, politics and cost of living are the combined factors. Just some anecdotal info.

Agreed, and all related to overpopulation. When it gets to be too much then we swarm to a new, less crowded area and...make it just as overcrowded and dirty as the place left behind. I'm witnessing such a thing first hand and yes, it is sad. Another poster remarked it's "not sad, it's progress" or something like that. Doesn't look good to me. Once a new Walmart comes to town, or a new Starbucks or whatever chain place, for some it's time to get out of dodge. The whole "build it and they will come" mantra. That's the signal of rural heading toward urban, and some of us don't want to partake.

At least we're free to move in, free to move out. I wouldn't want it any other way.

[Mister Torgue]

Originally Posted by heavymind

Agreed, and all related to overpopulation. When it gets to be too much then we swarm to a new, less crowded area and...make it just as overcrowded and dirty as the place left behind. I'm witnessing such a thing first hand and yes, it is sad. Another poster remarked it's "not sad, it's progress" or something like that. Doesn't look good to me. Once a new Walmart comes to town, or a new Starbucks or whatever chain place, for some it's time to get out of dodge. The whole "build it and they will come" mantra. That's the signal of rural heading toward urban, and some of us don't want to partake.

At least we're free to move in, free to move out. I wouldn't want it any other way.

100% my thoughts.

[Syringaloid]

Despite the growth in that area, Twin Falls is still a small town.

[UniversalTraveler]

Hagerman......a 35-40 minute drive from Twin Falls.

[UniversalTraveler]

Originally Posted by heavymind

Agreed, and all related to overpopulation. When it gets to be too much then we swarm to a new, less crowded area and...make it just as overcrowded and dirty as the place left behind. I'm witnessing such a thing first hand and yes, it is sad. Another poster remarked it's "not sad, it's progress" or something like that. Doesn't look good to me. Once a new Walmart comes to town, or a new Starbucks or whatever chain place, for some it's time to get out of dodge. The whole "build it and they will come" mantra. That's the signal of rural heading toward urban, and some of us don't want to partake.

At least we're free to move in, free to move out. I wouldn't want it any other way.

at my age and status I consider progress an enemy as well. May it never infect the place I live during my remaining years on this planet. I need space, peace and quiet and sanity. Ain't going to get that in a crowd.