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No. I seriously doubt any other states will ever be like California.
The thing you must understand is right at this moment, Idaho has the right combination of elements that make it attractive to outsiders.
That moment has come and gone many times before, in about all our surrounding neighbors. The moment never lasts for very long in the West; it hit Oregon, Montana, Washington, and even Utah before Idaho became the hot state.
It was almost like Idaho got the hot spot by default as the last one left that hadn't been looked over.
And there's nothing that says the West will remain the last great open frontier in people's minds forever either.
Most of that emotion came to be in the 20th century, and the 20th century reinforced it in our most popular media for a full century. But now, in the 21st century, that emotion is fading. The South is rapidly replacing it, and all our most popular media are now turning there, not to the West.
The real facts of the matter is whether and for how long the West is seen as the most desirable place to uproot a person's life to move and to live in forever afterward.
That's really undecided now, but the fastest growing region in the nation is no longer the West.
It's the South.
This is very interesting banjomike.
We used to live in North Idaho. We sold and moved away 10 years ago for work and better education for our kids. We moved to the South.
For our stated reasons, it was a good move. We have been prosperous with work and our kids ended up getting full scholarships to our state's flagship school where they are seniors now. We have enjoyed the near year round sunshine (and the short respite from the heat during January and February). We bought a house at the bottom of the market and it's appreciated nicely. I didn't think we'd every consider moving. But, things change.
We miss family and friends in North Idaho and I think we may move back. But I cannot get my head around the current prices in Coeur d'Alene, Hayden and Dalton Gardens. These are our old haunts. I know these neighborhoods. They are nothing special. The prices are insanity. The house we left behind is right now on the market for 750K. There's no city water or sewer there and you have to have satellite internet. I liked that house a lot. I'd move right back into it, but not at that price.
The question I am struggling with is - is this market going to keep going up? Do I need to buy now? Should I wait for it to fall back down? Most of our friends and family are in Dalton Gardens. My husband is about to buy whatever pops up, just to get back into the area. I don't want to get underwater in a house. I also don't want to think in a while that I should have bought that tear down on the corner for 600K, cause now it's 800K.
I am curious what part of the South you are referring to with the growth. Our town 100 miles or so out of Atlanta is getting more popular, but it's no where near the frenzy I see in Idaho. Average days on market in my neighborhood are 5 to 10 days, but it's not people coming in from out of state or buying sight unseen. Usually, someone on our neighborhood Facebook page pops on and asks if anyone is planning to sell because they have a friend, or a family member who wants in and that's all it takes. If anyone's hovering it's usually people in surrounding counties that want their kids in our school district. It's the best in the state, and we're rural, so win win for wholesome family living.
So, banjomike (or anyone else with an opinion here), if you owned a house in the South (realizing that's a large area) would you sell right now or hold it as an investment property?
Hi, CDarocks...
Man- that's a very hard question you pose.
I don't know enough about real estate here or there where you are to even try to answer your question.
Personally, I don't think this is a very good time to move anywhere; the virus has messed up lots of things a person should consider before they move.
It sounds to me that you're in a pretty good place, but you're missing your friends and family a lot. If it was me, I would be thinking of taking a vacation to come back and spend some time with them before you plan anything else.
I once took a job in Montana, and found I liked it there a lot. I made a lot of new friends, had some old ones there, and I liked the town.
I liked the job too, even though it gave me some bad repetitive injuries. They were part of my decision to move back to my Idaho Falls home town, but there were some continuing family matters that were the biggest reason to leave.
10 years later, I was offered my old job again, but at a higher wage scale. I was doing just fine in Idaho Falls, but life had become routine and I like fresh challenges. the thought of going back for about 5 or 6 more years while renting my home here, would be a good way to build a retirement stash.
And since I liked it there so much before, when I decided to retire, I had the option of staying there or moving back here.
It was all very tempting, and I took the job.
When I returned nothing there was the same. The town had changed drastically, was very over-crowded, and had lost almost all of its old charm and sense of community.
While some of my old friends were still on the job, they had also changed. And there were fewer of them. Most of the folks at work were younger than I, strangers, and they no longer had the same spirit as the one that had existed a decade earlier.
Only the job was the same, and it was even harder on me, as I was 10 years older. I spent 2 years at it, miserably, and could have stayed, but the repetitive injuries were bad enough for me to know I wouldn't be able to withstand them for much longer, and if I stayed, the damage would be past the point of recovery.
So I moved back once more. Once I was out of the job, my injuries healed slowly, but I had to sell my former home to move, so it was gone, and though the move was basically a good choice, I still had lots of problems once I returned.
In 20/20 hindsight, I decided once I came back that I should have never left.
This experience taught me a few things:
Time moves on. It moves on in the old place and in the new place equally.
Nostalgia is something that needs to be fought before it overcomes the mind.
Planning a good exit from a commitment is much better than planning a new entrance into the commitment. It's better to get out fast and clean than it is to stay on, sometimes.
Most of all, the experience taught me that it's very important to keep your best options open.
In my case, initially I was planning to rent only, because I knew I could possibly develop injury again. But once I got there, I found rentals were as expensive as house payments and came with lots more restrictions.
Once I sold my home, my best option vanished. I learned all I needed to know in around 90 days, but it took the remainder of the year and another full year to undo what I had done so quickly.
I came away thinking I was lucky to have broken even and able to come back as quickly as I did. Nothing here was particularly better, but nothing here was worse. So while I lost 2 good productive years, I did limit the damage eventually.
CDARocks, I'd wait for the prices to settle a bit. That is what we are doing. Part of the price drive upwards right now is just a reflection of demand plus lower inventories. Demand will slow eventually and inventories will build back up. And.. there will always be more houses to buy; there is a lot of randomness over time of when folks decide to sell that is not effected by the current circumstances, unless you are looking at a truly unique properties. This type of price cycles has been seen in the SFBay area for some decades now, and, IMHO, it'll take a year or 2 to settle back down a bit. And some of the folks fleeing the cities right now will find that the move they made is not really for them, and I'd expect some of the houses being bought now to be back on the market in a couple of years.
And you are right: after tracking price trends in the West for a few years now, the surges in prices seems to be considerably more there than in much of the East. Part of that is simply supply IMHO. There are a lot of more towns and small cities to settle in back East. But some parts of the East are seeing some pretty hefty price surges right now: Maine is a good example.
If only any of us had a crystal ball that allowed us to predict moves in the real estate market ...
My perspective on the NID real estate market is that the current price aren't supported by the local economy. Much of the demand seems to be driven by "refugees" from other states, many of whom bring lots of home equity with them. Thus, they can afford to pay these prices, and even at current levels they look cheap compared to where they are coming from.
Young and even some not so young folks who live and work in the local economy are having a tough time buying into the market. If they've been here for a while, and bought a home some time ago they are doing well, but it's challenging if they are just starting out. If the demand from refugees drops off, the market will likely adjust downward to a level that's more appropriate for the local economy.
But, will that happen anytime soon? I was wondering if current events have changed that demand at all, so I asked an acquaintance who is a realtor in Sandpoint. His answer: If anything demand has increased. He's seeing lots of folks accelerating their plans to leave some of the beleaguered cities in the west, hoping to find a safer place. A personal observation: On our drive out Sagle Rd from US95 we now count at least a half dozen new homes being built. All that activity has started this year. Many of those lots had been for sale for years, and some are not particularly desirable in our opinion. Just a couple of data points, and not a complete analysis, but those are my observations.
Personally, I don't see any change in the next several years. In the long run things were could see some very fundamental changes to the demand for property in NID. IMO, the quality of life in the major cities on the west coast will continue to decline unless you are a top 5% level earner who can afford to isolate yourself in one of these areas. That will continue to drive demand for middle class type folks to move away when their life allows that.
In the long term who knows what will happen. They say millenials like the social connections and amenities of living in a metro area. Maybe they will be able to recreate urban areas into more livable communities. Perhaps as the baby boomers die off we'll see a reversal of the trends of the last 15-20 years.
If only any of us had a crystal ball that allowed us to predict moves in the real estate market ...
My perspective on the NID real estate market is that the current price aren't supported by the local economy. Much of the demand seems to be driven by "refugees" from other states, many of whom bring lots of home equity with them. Thus, they can afford to pay these prices, and even at current levels they look cheap compared to where they are coming from.
Young and even some not so young folks who live and work in the local economy are having a tough time buying into the market. If they've been here for a while, and bought a home some time ago they are doing well, but it's challenge
Personally, I don't see any change in the next several years. In the long run things were could see some very fundamental changes to the demand for property in NID. IMO, the quality of life in the major cities on the west coast will continue to decline unless you are a top 5% level earner who can afford to isolate yourself in one of these areas. That will continue to drive demand for middle class type folks to move away when their life allows that.
In the long term who knows what will happen. They say millenials like the social connections and amenities of living in a metro area. Maybe they will be able to recreate urban areas into more livable communities. Perhaps as the baby boomers die off we'll see a reversal of the trends of the last 15-20 years.
Dave
Good observations, Dave.
I think the pandemic is changing a lot of things in our people, especially in the younger generations that followed the baby boomers.
GenX, Millennials, and GenZ (who are now the largest and youngest adults) all seem to have developed new expectations and thoughts about their futures.
So many either fled their city lives to wait the virus out with family or friends in smaller, more remote places, and have now been there for so long, it's beginning to cause a change of mind about living in small towns or the country for many of them.
Some have begun to re-think their career choices, marriage, having children, and a lot of other basic things in life.
Some are seeing advantages to living where there's more room to ramble with fewer social activities, and are pondering on ways to change their work to suit a different lifestyle better.
While there are others who are very happy they stayed put in the big city. These folks are finding their own advantages of life in cities that have changed due to the pandemic. The picture for some folks is not as bleak as it is for others, for sure.
I think all this will have its effect on Idaho in good and bad ways, but it's far too soon for me to tell what those effects may be. Or how long they will last.
I'm positive, though, that the pandemic will reverse some long-standing trends permanently.
Not just with the younger generations, either.
I think a lot of baby boomers' thoughts and expectations of the future are changing just as much, and they, too, will have an effect on Idaho and our mutual future here.
Thank you, all of you, for these thoughtful replies. Your points are valid and worthy of measured consideration.
It is unfortunate a need to be near parents has converged with this market. We have been back numerous times since our move and are aware of the changes in the area. It's interesting you bring up nostalgia, banjom. One of our sons has often mentioned returning because he has so many fond memories of living there as a child. We told him he would likely never reproduce what he is looking for. He gave up an internship a couple of years ago to spend the summer in C'da and discovered this is true. He knows we are thinking of returning, and I think he is happy to stay put. He is engaged now. He brought his then girlfriend to C'da last year to attend some family functions. They decided it is not the place for them. Our large friend group has fractured with time also. It will never be the same.
We are definitely leaning towards not selling our current property. We do want the option to return. The job goes with, so that's not a factor and my spouse actually has significant contacts in his field in Spokane if he should decide to change employers. He has also acquired an MBA since we left. When we moved away, we left with a solid exit plan in case things didn’t work out. We actually told people we would be back in two years, and we truly thought we would be.
The virus has definitely complicated things. Without it, I would just say let’s go for 6 months, try it back on and see how it fits. But with the virus, it’s not like we are going to be visiting all our friends and reacquainting ourselves with favorite places. The only thing being there affords us is proximity to both sets of parents, which is the whole point. I don’t know what we will do. We know several high performing realtors there. I think we are going to consult with one at least. Probably we will decide it’s just not a good plan right now, but maybe there is a way. Sorry mom and dad! We’re trying!
Thank you, all of you, for these thoughtful replies. Your points are valid and worthy of measured consideration.
It is unfortunate a need to be near parents has converged with this market. We have been back numerous times since our move and are aware of the changes in the area. It's interesting you bring up nostalgia, banjom. One of our sons has often mentioned returning because he has so many fond memories of living there as a child. We told him he would likely never reproduce what he is looking for. He gave up an internship a couple of years ago to spend the summer in C'da and discovered this is true. He knows we are thinking of returning, and I think he is happy to stay put. He is engaged now. He brought his then girlfriend to C'da last year to attend some family functions. They decided it is not the place for them. Our large friend group has fractured with time also. It will never be the same.
We are definitely leaning towards not selling our current property. We do want the option to return. The job goes with, so that's not a factor and my spouse actually has significant contacts in his field in Spokane if he should decide to change employers. He has also acquired an MBA since we left. When we moved away, we left with a solid exit plan in case things didn’t work out. We actually told people we would be back in two years, and we truly thought we would be.
The virus has definitely complicated things. Without it, I would just say let’s go for 6 months, try it back on and see how it fits. But with the virus, it’s not like we are going to be visiting all our friends and reacquainting ourselves with favorite places. The only thing being there affords us is proximity to both sets of parents, which is the whole point. I don’t know what we will do. We know several high performing realtors there. I think we are going to consult with one at least. Probably we will decide it’s just not a good plan right now, but maybe there is a way. Sorry mom and dad! We’re trying!
Yup. My kids haven't fled, and so far, they aren't considering moving back, but they're sure calling me up a lot more than they did last year. Family connections are more important to folks now for almost everyone.
I don't think all the pandemic outcomes will be bad. Not at all. Some of the changes will be good for us and our state.
I just hope we all have the patience to ride out this mess and allow the changes to develop in a natural fashion. That's increasingly hard for me; I'm a very patient guy, but I have a bad case of cabin fever nowadays.
There's nothing I yearn for more than a big jam session in a crowded room that's packed with players I don't know. That's always been a favorite group activity of mine, and I really miss it.
Yup. My kids haven't fled, and so far, they aren't considering moving back, but they're sure calling me up a lot more than they did last year. Family connections are more important to folks now for almost everyone.
I don't think all the pandemic outcomes will be bad. Not at all. Some of the changes will be good for us and our state.
I just hope we all have the patience to ride out this mess and allow the changes to develop in a natural fashion. That's increasingly hard for me; I'm a very patient guy, but I have a bad case of cabin fever nowadays.
There's nothing I yearn for more than a big jam session in a crowded room that's packed with players I don't know. That's always been a favorite group activity of mine, and I really miss it.
I understand literally and figuratively (I am a classically trained musician ). I've used my talents in life for hospitality; chefing and hosting large events is my happy place. In fact, the last time I flew out to Idaho was to cater two big family events. I haven't been doing any of that these last months, but I did discover I have a great eye for food photography. This completely took me by surprise. My daughter is an artist and has all the lights and software and stuff I could need. I have had a great time composing pictures of my homemade breads, boules, rolls, bagels, or even just a bowl of veg. I get particular joy from getting lighting just right. I will to continue to pursue this no matter where I find myself. A very happy discovery.
Something today gave me some more perspective on how bad the prices changes can get out West. There was a lot that we seriously looked out at in Stanley ID 2-3 years ago. We weren't ready, so let it lay, and it got bought. It just came back on the market today.... at triple the price.... wowzer. It was not cheap 3 years ago. Of course, Stanley is super scenic, and in the Sawtooth SNRA and land and places of all types are very limited, so the price craziness may be at its worst there. (That is actually much worse than Jackson WY has been.)
Another lot came up in a very scenic location near Stanley last month, at a very high price. It just went off the listings so presumably sold.
Yep.. time to wait and not get overly anxious, IMHO, and not get overly upset when things get away from you. There will be more. (I'm a car nut and I learned this long time ago about desirable cars.) We looked for a long time on the Outer Banks of NC and prices went up and up in the late 90's and into the next decade. Never thought we would get there. But then prices crashed and we were 'in'. So things change.
If you have good realty connections out there OP, that might help you catch a deal that comes along. This is a market type where it may pay to sign up a realtor as a buyer's agent.
As beautiful as Stanley is, you couldn't get me to live there if you paid me.
It's just too damned cold year-round up there. By sundown, you always need a coat or something to get you through the night, even in the middle of a hot spell.
It's always a great place to visit for a few days, but all I can see are problems owning a vacation home there. Nature really batters them year-round, and the less visitation they get, the faster they run down.
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). I've used my talents in life for hospitality; chefing and hosting large events is my happy place. In fact, the last time I flew out to Idaho was to cater two big family events. I haven't been doing any of that these last months, but I did discover I have a great eye for food photography. This completely took me by surprise. My daughter is an artist and has all the lights and software and stuff I could need. I have had a great time composing pictures of my homemade breads, boules, rolls, bagels, or even just a bowl of veg. I get particular joy from getting lighting just right. I will to continue to pursue this no matter where I find myself. A very happy discovery.
