Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Sat 23Sept - TD17 was designated in the Eastern Atlantic and TS Philippe by the afternoon. As of Sun 24Sept winds 45mph(75km/h), moving W 9mph(15km/h), pressure 1003mb. NHC expects slow intensification and slow movement to the W and eventually turning NW before reaching NE Caribbean. NHC's cone has shifted a little more West tho.
Area behind Philippe coming off Africa may catch up to it and interact towards end of this week.
Sun 24Sept 5pEDT Satellite estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1000mb. Nice outflow on satellite but some wind shear along it's path.
Tues 26Sept 5aEDT Satellite estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1001mb. Earlier the Euro became the outlier with a turn back to the West, but now other models have caved to the Euro thinking. So NHC has system moving WNW to NW which misses the NE Caribbean as originally anticipated. Then turns it West or even WSW which could put potential remnants near Puerto Rico / Dominican Republic as system falls apart this weekend before dissipating. NHC with Depression (Winds less than 38mph) by Friday night / early Saturday.
Wed 27Sept 5pEDT Satellite estimated winds 50mph(85km/h) (NHC says that could be generous tho), moving WNW 5mph(7km/h), pressure 998mb. Still disorganized with storms on East side. Wind shear and dry air. Kinda near invest 91L so we'll see if that plays a role on changes. Euro says no sends blob of moisture into Northern Islands. GFS says yes, spins them around each other and up and out. NHC continues with West turn similar to the Euro model. Will be dancing on borderline TS or not by the weekend, so may or may not get a brief Tropical Storm Warning for the islands and then have that canceled rather quickly depending on state of storm.
But main thing if heads West is 1-4" (25-100mm) of rain or so this weekend into early next week for the islands.
Thurs 28Sept 11aEDT Satellite estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), drifting WNW 2mph(4km/h), pressure 1002mb. Interacting with Rina. NHC now has it drifting down SW towards islands then turning North to start the week.
Sun 1-Oct winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 5mph(7km/h), pressure 998mb. Making a slow pass by the islands, then heads North. TS Watch Antigua, Barbuda. Could bring several inches of rain some of the Leeward Islands is still main impact.
3-Oct Tues 8aEDT - winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 1001mb. Center about 40miles(60km) NW of Anguilla, about 55miles(90km) E of British VI. TS Warning Barbuda, Anguilla; TS Watch British VI.
Tremendous amounts of rains, especially where mountains located (lift helps ring out additional moisture). Barbuda through Dominica 4-8in (100-200mm), many other islands 3-5in (75-125mm), Virgin Islands 1-3in (25-75mm). Landslides and flooding will be possible. TS winds are mainly Montserrat Northward to Anguilla including Antigua, Barbuda, St Kitts & Nevis.
Future track continues to have it move more as turns to the North this week, squeezed up between trough near US E coast and High out at sea.
Several models have it curving back into Nova Scotia / Eastern Canada or even clipping Maine early next week. Future path still uncertain. Euro appears to have it fall apart / merge with another system exiting the US east coast near Bermuda then swings it back into Nova Scotia region. GFS similar with more Eastern Canada impacts as a large Low pressure system.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
