'I am losing my mind': Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find work
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I was torn if I should post this in the employment forum or here, but I figured here since my main though it is this has something to do with the economy and if we are going to be making a turn soon or have quietly already have. And I am not looking for job hunting advice, but a discussion on what people think may be going on with the job market and the economy's role in this.
Full discloser, I am employed, but am looking for a new job and have been for a year. But I've not been very aggressive at it, only applying to places I would really love working at (since I have a job already). But I have noticed that the pay for what's out there is low even in HCOLAs. I am talking jobs I did 20-25 years ago paying the same or less than what I made 20-25 years ago. And I have three friends who are more aggressively looking for work and have been for over a year to six months. They are more like the people in the article above you are applying to 100s of jobs.
And I am one of the ones who "fears layoffs" and is why I've been job hunting.
I always seem to see and read articles about the economy in the news that are centered around inflation or shrinkflation. But I only every hear, "unemployment is low." I am now wondering if there is a type of shrinkflation going on with salaries as well (so many low paying jobs/jobs paying what they were 20 years ago). I know it's only anecdotally, but I know very skilled people who are struggling to find work.
Has anyone here read more about the job market? It seems to be flying under the radar or there are few informational articles about it like the one above. What are your predictions as to where it's all going? And why don't we hear more about this or see more articles like the one I posted?
I swear it seems similar, but not the same, as the stagflation of the 1970s. I was only a kid then, but I see some parallels (sans the gas lines).
Personally, I think there is a slowing and a rash of underemployment going on and I think people are struggling to find jobs. My three friends I mentioned, only one is probably counting as unemployed as she was laid off. The other two left their jobs. One rage quit (I thought that was short sighed and I wouldn't have done that, but honestly, I understood why) and the other left to pursue software certifications full time to make himself more employable with the hopes of a higher salary. So technically only is collecting unemployment and is counted in those numbers. And I am working full time, so I am not unemployed. But we are all looking for work. My point is, unemployment might be low, but I don't think those numbers are reflecting the full picture. And the people in the article above: STEM degrees or lots of experience and they can't find work.
We have created an economy of what i call "baloney slicing". Everything is "automated" in the sense of people are robots to policies and procedures. There is very little left in many of jobs to be creative/contributory/productive beyond what is dictated by the "rules" of the job.
As such, jobs pay what they pay, and there is little room for people to excel and earn a substantially higher level of compensation. What's available in the market place? A ton of positions which pay poorly and are service sector oriented. Wafting tables, selling hamburgers and fries, stocking shelves in the local retail store. Even the better companies like Amazon. Google and Microsoft are hiring people to fit their mold, accept the pay as it is, and god knows, rules which tell you to stay in your lane lest you be considered a rebel. Even wall street jobs where people used to get paid for what they killed are seeing a topping and declining compensation environment.
That's the new economy. Few roles are liberating as to mental creativity and resulting soaring compensation.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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My suggestion is that you look for work at a public agency, but one that's not supported solely by tax dollars. Those that have revenue from operations such as airports, public utilities, and transit have good pay, outstanding benefits, good work-life balance and most offer hybrid or work from home 100%.
Just to reiterate, I am not looking for job hunting advice. I've only applied to a handful of places (maybe one a month at best) myself and am not worried because I have a job. I am hyper focused on just places that offer at least what I am making now, have growth potential (AI/offshoring won't replace easily), and seem like they are places I would love working. I could do a lot more/be a lot more aggressive in my searching but I am being picky because I can afford to be picky. I brought up my searching only because it's why I am noticing things.
This topic is just something I started thinking about mainly because I have friends who are struggling to find work. And because, as I've been looking, I've noticed the pay for most jobs is absurdly low for the times (same salaries as 20-25 years ago). There are lots of jobs out there, if you want to work in the 2024 economy at 1999 wages. I see jobs out there that were my out of college starter jobs offering exactly what I used to make way back when. It just seems like something is off.
For what it's worth, those friends looking for work include two that live in the DC metro area and one who lives in New Jersey, near Philly. They've been applying to hundreds of jobs each and those are highly populated areas. And because it was brought up, technically, one of them is an immigrant. He's a US citizen now, but he is from Bandladesh originally. I think it's actually hurting him. He's an IT guy and really smart, but his English isn't the best.
The people in the article I shared have also been looking and applying to hundreds of jobs. Some have moved to different cities and, at the end, one woman who was laid off, after applying to hundreds of jobs took one that was a big paycut for her because she needed work.
I'm in IT, and this has been the case for awhile now.
We've seen plenty of large layoffs at big tech firms where thousands are being laid off at once. My LinkedIn network is filled with long-term unemployment sob stories. These are generally skilled professionals who should, if you buy the job numbers at face value, have a relatively easy time finding work.
I made the jump over a year ago. I was a top-tier individual contributor where I was at. I was capped out on salary and promotion opportunities. I had worked for the same manager for almost five years. On a random Thursday, the department director sent a handful of my manager's direct reports a meeting with nothing more than "update" as the subject line. We were being broken off and sent to work under a different manager, who was a contractor, not an employee. The job was for a hospital system, which had most of its office workforce go at least hybrid, and it was still hell finding FTEs.
I had been casually looking for quite awhile, but being moved under the contractor finally just sealed the deal for me. That contractor was actually really good, but we got to know each other well, and she was just as dissatisfied as I was. She had worked for the system as an FTE years before I arrived, and also didn't like the culture. She told me that she was looking for work, and that I could roll into her job. I found something first, got a good reference from her, and she left a month or two after I did. The director hired another contractor as the team's manager, but the second one was fired in about ten weeks.
After that, they simply eliminated the manager position entirely. One analyst was fired on the team for blowing up on customers. A couple of other people left over the course of the year. I think the team fully turned over from 1/1/23 to 1/1/24.
I joined a government agency an hour and a half away, and work remotely 95% of the time. I did take a $10k pay cut, but made most of that back during the 7% annual COLA, which I got after only working there for six months.
Unemployment numbers the world over should always be taken with a huge grain of salt.
I disagree they are made up in the USA. Underemployment is a factor and will always be a factor. Its also absolutely true that with inflation a wage that used to seem high, no longer is.
That being said in my state of Utah unemployment is lower than the national average. Its somewhere in the 2% range. There are signs up in every business offering to hire people and generally stating the entry level wage which is between $12 to $16 an hour. There are t.v. programs here in which employers are frequently interviewed and uniformly complain they cannot get enough workers and there are more complaints about the lack of skilled workers. Various initiatives have been put forward by the state to train more employees for the jobs that are in demand. There are many opportunities available here for someone who wants them.
My own personal experience is that I don't know anyone who is looking for work and cannot find a job. Complaints here are not about a lack of jobs. The major complaint is a lack of affordable housing which inhibits people from coming here and taking jobs.
I am not saying the experience could be somewhat different in other parts of the country. I do not believe that unemployment statistics are made up though.
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