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Regarding economics Germany is particularly interesting. A tidbit that shows Germany's drift toward structural and likely permanent underperformance..........VW said just the other day that its VW brand is no longer competitive on the world stage due to a morass of things but among them relatively low productivity per worker year and high pay per worker. To be fair some of that goes beyond Germany but the incessant illusion sold from the US left that Euro car companies can pay well, treat workers like movie stars, sell good cars and make money too is vaporizing before our eyes.
Leading to........who knows the damage that we will see from the new US autoworker pay raises? GM was already overpaying workers relative to Toyota and several others.
The same people who cheered on these raises are the most likely to gripe about car prices.
You'll just see more of what has been happening for a decade or so; more and more manufacturing opening up or moving to the south where unions aren't strong and people like it that way.
This and there is always Mexico or Canada..... Then of course there is Asia.
Biden like Trump keeps slapping tariffs and so forth on Asian goods (in particular Chinese) under guise of various infractions. Will be interesting to see how that all plays out as it cannot go on forever.
History repeats itself within our lifetime. BTDT in the 70's with Auto industry.
Negotiated themselves out of a career (and industry).
Today our choices to 'offshore' / find a more economical production region AND a larger customer base are easier, way easier since most companies have global presence and access.
The USA has probably turned yet another corner. Results will be similar, but not the same, because the world of commerce is very different.
Germany has it's hands full - tug of war.
EU wants it's bite.
Nationals are hanging onto their origins
Needy countries are looking for a boost
Germany is looked upon as the stable mother of the EU, but few realize the great price that it and other strong EU nations are paying.
Many nursing nations are happy to keep nursing, It get addictive, It's easy.
No mother hen has the current clout to say "ENOUGH!, wean yourselves and get on with unification and betterment of our union."
It amazes me that people will scratch their head and wonder where, relativistically, all the manufacturing jobs went while also supporting economically unjustifiable wage increases.
You'll just see more of what has been happening for a decade or so; more and more manufacturing opening up or moving to the south where unions aren't strong and people like it that way.
This and there is always Mexico or Canada..... Then of course there is Asia.
Biden like Trump keeps slapping tariffs and so forth on Asian goods (in particular Chinese) under guise of various infractions. Will be interesting to see how that all plays out as it cannot go on forever.
I'm sure at every board meeting GM domos kick themselves for not moving the whole thing, so much as possible, to Nashville or Tulsa etc. during the '08 bust.............................GM's most profitable plant is in Arlington Texas.
Having worked and lived in the Euro zone
1) There will never be a 'unified' Europe- there are generations of warfare / ethnic violence / kingdoms
2) The EU council formation was +/-. The powerful and more economically stable and strong economies are diluted by poor performers.
3) There will be a 'delayed' / extended time to benefit from EU
4) Vast rules / infrastructure / diverse objectives will slow (and possibly torpedo) EU benefit.
5) There is a LOT of complexity (cultures, skills, objectives, education levels, local dialects *and very divisive, underground economy)
Overall the EU was probably a good thing, but came with an understandable slowing down of the overal economy, until the 'new normal' finds it's way (if ever).
This weighs heavy.
In 2022, around 1.08 million non-EU citizens were found to be illegally present in the EU, indicating a 59% increase compared with 2021 (679 730). Hungary reported the largest number of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present in the EU (222 520), followed by Germany (198 310) and Italy (138 420).May 5, 2023
But where are those exiled supposed to go?
They have no 'home', they have no income. They have needs.
One needs to look at the history of how many people immigrated to the USA for various reasons (starting in the 1700's.) 5 million Irish alone! We were a more unified nationwith room to grow, and opportunities for the VERY hard workers.
US and EU residents have generally had a very cush life. You note that when working with business development. Immigrants are very driven, motivated, and have a high need for success. It's really tough for the EU to take all it's new residents and get them productively on a fresh start.
Nearly impossible to buy housing in much of the EU (cost + regs), fortunately rents are less expensive than USA.
Food and natural resources? Lots of people & less land = higher need to import.
I hope EU can hold it together, as there are a lot of forces tearing it apart.
There really is no such thing as unified Europe, regardless of various partnerships that exist (NATO, EU, etc.). It's just a bunch of very old countries whose borders have been changing by the immediate neighbors (enemies), and everyone looks out for their own interests. A lot of countries that are now in EU don't belong there, but were allowed in because of geopolitical interests. They are only profiting from the rest.
Recent additions like Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, etc. are getting much more from the EU than the EU is getting from them. Any of the former Eastern block countries (Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland) simply can't compete and are not considered Western countries (by their own citizens), despite the fact they have been in EU for a while now.
Funny you mentioned Hungary being, oh so worried about illegals, but they are in the same bucket as the countries listed above, not to mention Greece. What most people forget is that there has been a huge legal migration from those newly added countries to 'real' Europe. They have lost a good chunk of population, because people can now move freely and migrate to UK, Germany, etc.
Consequently, those countries are among the top 10 or 20 that are depicted as 'losing' population: https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ing-population
Bulgaria is no. 1, but Hungary is not far behind. They have been very vocal about immigrants from the outside of EU, but their citizens are leaving in droves, one-way usually. Many young Americans really think there is such thing as unified Europe, unfortunately.
The economy of EU is really German economy, with a few other minor players involved.
Last edited by 2Navigate; 12-04-2023 at 11:30 AM..
I'm sure at every board meeting GM domos kick themselves for not moving the whole thing, so much as possible, to Nashville or Tulsa etc. during the '08 bust.............................GM's most profitable plant is in Arlington Texas.
South is booming with manufacturing. Besides automakers many appliance manufactures such as LG are down there and more are coming.
Canada is growing its population, but unlike the US, had a GDP decline last quarter, and its unemployment rate is 2 points higher than ours. Apple alone is worth more than all publicly traded Canadian companies.
Canada, Australia, the UK, Asia, and the EU don't have the tech sector we do. If you look at the largest market cap stocks in all those countries they're ancient, many old banks and in some cases energy companies. Meanwhile, in this country, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Facebook, and Amazon combined are worth over $10 trillion, or more than the total of any other country's publicly traded companies.
Canada is growing its population, but unlike the US, had a GDP decline last quarter, and its unemployment rate is 2 points higher than ours. Apple alone is worth more than all publicly traded Canadian companies.
Canada, Australia, the UK, Asia, and the EU don't have the tech sector we do. If you look at the largest market cap stocks in all those countries they're ancient, many old banks and in some cases energy companies. Meanwhile, in this country, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Facebook, and Amazon combined are worth over $10 trillion, or more than the total of any other country's publicly traded companies.
It's very difficult to nearly impossible to get sort of funding (say by venture capital) that launched many of American tech companies and giants. PayPal alone created several tech billionaires (such as Peter Theil IIRC) who since went on to start other tech ventures.
Europe or at least EU is doing everything it can to strangle if not kill off tech via regulation. That attitude isn't exactly welcoming if someone wants to start something up.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11
Canada is growing its population, but unlike the US, had a GDP decline last quarter, and its unemployment rate is 2 points higher than ours. Apple alone is worth more than all publicly traded Canadian companies.
Canada, Australia, the UK, Asia, and the EU don't have the tech sector we do. If you look at the largest market cap stocks in all those countries they're ancient, many old banks and in some cases energy companies. Meanwhile, in this country, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Facebook, and Amazon combined are worth over $10 trillion, or more than the total of any other country's publicly traded companies.
for what it's worth.... temporarily
Few hard assets, compared to a substantial manf or construction / infrastructure employer,
No manf (capital intensive)
No core raw materials (can outsource intellect, materials, and services, ANYWHERE / ANYTIME)
It's nice these companies and others have done what they have accomplished, but 'Staying power' / building a country with skills, jobs, tangible contributions to society, and ASSETS (as in investments) (as did MANY companies who grew the USA)
Enjoy the picnic.
It will not last, as 'funny money' can flee in a moment. (to better / more profitable places).
Been nice while it's lasted, but it will not last, or exist build a stronger USA.
I'll stick with natural and national resources (as in a skillset and investment equity staying power, and the infrastructure and raw materials to sustain desired growth).
We sold the bank, the farm. (to foreign nations), and our essential skillsets.
Canada is growing its population, but unlike the US, had a GDP decline last quarter, and its unemployment rate is 2 points higher than ours. Apple alone is worth more than all publicly traded Canadian companies.
Canada, Australia, the UK, Asia, and the EU don't have the tech sector we do. If you look at the largest market cap stocks in all those countries they're ancient, many old banks and in some cases energy companies. Meanwhile, in this country, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Facebook, and Amazon combined are worth over $10 trillion, or more than the total of any other country's publicly traded companies.
There are couple of reasons why Canada and European countries do not have tech sector anymore like they used to have 2 decades ago.
• Low investment
• Tough regulations
• High taxation rates
• Many high skilled talents are moving to the US in order to provide higher wages for them
• Too high reliance on the domestic market
Nokia, Phillips, Ericsson, Blackberry and many more went vanished from the tech world.
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