Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Schwab sent out thousands of pink slips last week.
Some of the bigger banks are quiet firing and/or enforcing soft and hard hiring freezes.
A niece works for a Vault ranked law firm in NYC her firm has pared hiring and offered early exit deals to a number of mid and later career types over last few months.
Two weeks ago a friend literally out of nowhere was offered an early retirement package - he's 61.5yo FWIIW - the details don't matter but the deal was way too good to pass up.
At least they got a package. Back in the Great Recession, people were fired with absolutely nothing.
In Clown World layoffs are good news as long as the liquidity is there for the banks to ply their trade. The risky players and consumers will pay through the nose with higher interest rates, but nobody on Wall Street really cares about them one way of the other. Bailouts (or ins) are just a phone call away in the land of milk and honey.
In Clown World layoffs are good news as long as the liquidity is there for the banks to ply their trade. The risky players and consumers will pay through the nose with higher interest rates, but nobody on Wall Street really cares about them one way of the other. Bailouts (or ins) are just a phone call away in the land of milk and honey.
And there are very few layoffs. The unemployment rate is lower than just about any time in history.
Seriously, if you want to find fault with this economy, I understand the complaints about inflation and interest rates. I think--at this point--someone trying to make an issue out of 3.9% unemployment is grasping at straws.
Its not just a matter of reading statistics from the BLS either. A statement that major layoffs are occurring doesn't meet the real world I'm seeing out there either. There are terrific job opportunities even for unskilled people who are willing to spend six months learning a job skill. I know. My daughter is one.
I also see interest rates slowly declining in 2024.
Last edited by markg91359; 11-06-2023 at 10:07 AM..
And there are very few layoffs. The unemployment rate is lower than just about any time in history.
Seriously, if you want to find fault with this economy, I understand the complaints about inflation and interest rates. I think--at this point--someone trying to make an issue out of 3.9% unemployment is grasping at straws.
Its not just a matter of reading statistics from the BLS either. A statement that major layoffs are occurring doesn't meet the real world I'm seeing out there either. There are terrific job opportunities even for unskilled people who are willing to spend six months learning a job skill. I know. My daughter is one.
I also see interest rates slowly declining in 2024.
Research any of the last several recessions - excepting 2020/Covid. Employment each and every time looked fine until it wasn't.
I'm hoping we can avoid recession in '24. However, I'm less and less optimistic.
_____________
Solid macroeconomic analysis should rely very little or not at all on the experiences of friends or relatives nor personal experiences.
U3 @ 3.9% with a LFPR of 62.7 while not scary per se isn't as good as you want to imply.
I'm curious how much unemployment we can stomach? A "good" u/e rate used to be 5%. Now people are freaking out about 3.9%? Historically speaking that has only gone lower about a 5 times.
But yes, U3 is good until it's not. And when it turns into "not" it tends to go up pretty fast.
Research any of the last several recessions - excepting 2020/Covid. Employment each and every time looked fine until it wasn't.
I'm hoping we can avoid recession in '24. However, I'm less and less optimistic.
_____________
Solid macroeconomic analysis should rely very little or not at all on the experiences of friends or relatives nor personal experiences.
U3 @ 3.9% with a LFPR of 62.7 while not scary per se isn't as good as you want to imply.
I throw in the personal information because I'm used to people getting upset when I just use statistics. When I use statistics, chances are someone will claim they are "made up" or "not real". Often, these same people will than proceed to describe either a personal experience or an anecdote about some corporation. I'm happy saying that unemployment is 3.9% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You comment about the LFPR (Labor Force Participation Rate) is a reasonable one, but I think there are explanations why it isn't higher that have nothing to do with inability to secure employment. I think as our population ages more and more people are going to voluntarily choose not to work. Some wait until a standard retirement age. Others, find a way to leave the labor force earlier and pay their expenses.
Our last five quarters have showed positive economic growth. The labor market has been surprisingly resilient considering inflation and interest rates.
The only thing that surprises me are the number of people who act like the current economic picture which includes 3.9% unemployment and 3.7% inflation is cause to jump off a bridge. Frankly, those of us who are older and lived through the 1970's have seen much worse. Not only was inflation bad during the late 70's and early 80's it was accompanied by high unemployment rates. There was a term for it called "stagflation". The truth is that high inflation and moderately high unemployment were features of the economy from about 1969 to 1982. Our current situation seems to me to be getting better, not worse.
You comment about the LFPR (Labor Force Participation Rate) is a reasonable one, but I think there are explanations why it isn't higher that have nothing to do with inability to secure employment. I think as our population ages more and more people are going to voluntarily choose not to work.
Good point. Also, I'll bet there are families with young kids who changed from two-worker to single-worker mode during COVID and discovered it's better for them. In some cases having one spouse stay at home can be both a financial win and a lifestyle win. Those stay-at-home spouses may be out of the workforce for years.
I throw in the personal information because I'm used to people getting upset when I just use statistics. When I use statistics, chances are someone will claim they are "made up" or "not real". Often, these same people will than proceed to describe either a personal experience or an anecdote about some corporation. I'm happy saying that unemployment is 3.9% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You comment about the LFPR (Labor Force Participation Rate) is a reasonable one, but I think there are explanations why it isn't higher that have nothing to do with inability to secure employment. I think as our population ages more and more people are going to voluntarily choose not to work. Some wait until a standard retirement age. Others, find a way to leave the labor force earlier and pay their expenses.
Our last five quarters have showed positive economic growth. The labor market has been surprisingly resilient considering inflation and interest rates.
The only thing that surprises me are the number of people who act like the current economic picture which includes 3.9% unemployment and 3.7% inflation is cause to jump off a bridge. Frankly, those of us who are older and lived through the 1970's have seen much worse. Not only was inflation bad during the late 70's and early 80's it was accompanied by high unemployment rates. There was a term for it called "stagflation". The truth is that high inflation and moderately high unemployment were features of the economy from about 1969 to 1982. Our current situation seems to me to be getting better, not worse.
Good post.
1. Ignore people who claim any of the well accepted econometric stats are, "made up." Life is too short to suffer via other people's ignorance. Maybe 25% of the people here consider Tyler Durden/Zerohedge and "The Creature from Jekyll Island" legit sources of information.
1.1. IMO anecdotes are fine as long as they are illustrative or supporting. If I misread your intent please accept my apologies.
2. Per LFPR for sure some of the decline over the last number of years is per an aging population. Much of it is due to a large failure class especially among millennial males.
2.1. However, LFPR has ticked up......we'll know in a few months if that data point means much. I'm somewhat afraid it'll prove to be an inflection point.
3. It's in the weeds but the Philly Fed's Manufacturing Index has been soft enough to indicate inflation is tempering not just right now but likely into the near future. The trick, will manufacturing soften just enough that rates area allowed to fall but also avoid recession. This really matters because the service economy tends to move behind but in sympathy with manufacturing.
4. IMO you should try to separate doom and gloomers from those genuinely concerned. Throughout recent history the Fed is batting about 1,000 when it comes to increasing discount rates yielding a slowing economy.
Excuse the typos - no glasses.....
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
