United Van Lines-which states are losing more folks than are moving in from other states?

[SWFL_Native]

Bs that people are moving to Vermont and Oregon

[blisterpeanuts]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

Funny how this gets immediately turned into a political thread somehow. I'd venture to say well over 90% of moves have absolutely nothing to do with politics. The vast majority have to do with jobs, family, weather, and cost of living - in that order. Yes, the last one might have some small bit to do with politics in that policies over time can impact tax rates, etc, but cost of living has much more to do with local incomes, job quality, supply versus demand of housing, and quality of housing stock. As for people moving to states in the south, southwest and Texas, well that's been happening for many decades. At least 50 years or more so very little political about it. Simply put, most people don't like shoveling snow or driving on icy roads. Go figure.

I would say, in general, it's economics. If people can sell their current house and trade up for cash in a different state, and that state has something else they want -- weather, grandkids, lower crime -- they'll do it.

A friend of mine's colleague in Colorado recently sold his house and bought a mansion on a lake in the Dallas area. Colo. prices are through the roof and apparently it's a seller's market.

[Coldjensens]

This is a good example of why statistical based conclusions are usually poppycock.



Let's take Michigan for example simply because I know it the best.
Like most of the state Michigan's population is aging. Old people in Michigan tend to move to Florida, or anywhere warm after they retire. Young people are coming in to replace the old people but there are fewer young people in the country than old people. Young people also tend to gravitate to the trendiest cities at the time. In Michigan, college graduates tend to move away and then return later when they have kids.

So all that data can lead to the conclusion that Michigan has cold weather, an older population and no trendy cities. It may have nothing to do with politics or policies whatsoever. Young people rarely know what the States politics or policies are anyway, and the older people who do know, are already leaving to find better weather.


You can find statistics to arguably support pretty much any proposition you want. You only need to change the data parameters until you get what you are looking for. Social scientists do this all the time. Not because of some nefarious plan to skew opinions, but because they did a bunch of research that does not show anything significant. Better to change the parameters than to admit that your years of research was pointless and did not find anything. Usually they are looking for support for a hypothesis that someone agreed to fund because they want that hypothesis proven. Tweak the data parameters just a little and eventually you will get a statistically significant trend that supports your hypothesis. They are not supposed to do that, buy hey, they gotta eat. Plus the surprising findings will show up in newspapers - especially if it supports a social agenda that the media likes.



What does all this data prove? Nothing at all. There are too many variables and too many flaws in the data collection and sorting methodology and far too many other influencing factors that are not considered. Statisticians want our world to be simple. Things must be driven by five or six issues and that is all. The reality is things are driven by hundreds of influencing factors that make statistics usually worthless. .