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Over building isn't the word for it. Its absolutely astounding. One thing YouTube is good for is you can view China's empty cities, and there are many of them. Skyscrapers lined up, one after the other completely empty. These empty cities are located all over China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver
Not only that, but many aren't even complete. They are more shells than completed housing units. The statistic I've read from 2019 is that 87% of all home purchases in China are for investment property, second or third residences. As a result, there are an estimated 65 million empty residential units. Yet given that China is going through a demographic crash those units will never be filled. They literally have no real value. It's staggering malinvestment.
Given how year-to-year housing sales have dropped upwards of 50-60% from 2021, this borders on catastrophic. It's the 21st Century's answer to the Dutch Tulip Craze.
Another thing about those empty shells of cities is that they take up precious farmland requiring China to rely even more on food imports.
I don't think I understand where you are coming from.
It seems to me Minivandriver has good information. Which writers seriously challenge Peter Zeihan? I ask because I have followed his work and if there is a challenge I would like to read it.
Gordon Chang has been calling for the collapse of China for over a decade.
I admit it: My prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year.
In that time frame, China has only grown economically, technologically and militarily.In fact, China bailed out the US back in 2008 by purchasing US Treasury bonds (not out of benevolence but because they have a vested interest to keep the US afloat economically).
I know less about this Zeihan guy as this is the first I've heard of this guy. His claim that 2022 is the "last year of the People's Republic of China" is rather bold and tips me off that this guy is a snake oil salesman.
In the video posted by minivan, he has posted a lot of conjecture and personal opinion, some of which are outright false and out of touch with reality that can be debunked rather easily by Googling.
I won't touch the demographics topic since he doesn't quote his sources and it's not like anyone believes China's numbers anyway.
He thinks that manufacturing is leaving China and actually coming back to the US. If the trade war with China didn't bring manufacturing back onshore, then what reasons does he give that will entice corporations?
Lower energy costs? More productive labor sector? Even if these were true (and that's a big if - https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ted-countries/), there are other countries with lower energy and labor costs that corporations would first exploit before bringing it back home where ALL input costs are comparatively higher.
He calls Ukraine a militarily incompetent country when the US/NATO has been training them for the past 8 years, and believes that Taiwan's preparedness since 1955 gives them an advantage. Taiwan's compulsory military service is 4 months. That's FOUR MONTHS. You aren't retaining anything significant in four months of training.
Taiwan is also an island the size of Maryland that can easily be pacified since many are pro-reunification.
Peter Zeihan is an American who has a consulting firm in geopolitics. He needs to make eye-catching statements in order to get potential customers and it does not matter whether those statements are right or wrong. And since the Americans are anti-China, it makes sense for him to write something negative about China.
What is Zeihan's experience in China? How long has he lived there? How fluent is he in the language?
If he gets all his information from US based sources, then of course his outlook on China is going to be negative since all coverage of China is negatively biased.
Not much of a refutation, given how you can't seem to offer up any counter arguments.
I'm 59 and I have multiple clients with manufacturing operations in China. With the exception of one, they are all moving operations to either India, Vietnam, or even the upper peninsula of Michigan.
And while I read Zeihan and agree with much of what he has to say--chiefly because most of his broad predictions have come true--I also read a lot of other sources on the subject. For example, foreign policy journals such as International Security were pointing out the serious contradictions in the Chinese economy more than a decade ago, particularly the demographic crash. I remember sharing one article in particular to my clients who, at the time, thought I was out of my gourd. You know, the same clients who are now pulling up tent stakes in China and moving elsewhere. In fact, here you go:
Demography is destiny. You can't lose 250,000,000 from your work force between 2010 and 2050 and not have serious consequences. One would have to be a complete idiot to ignore how consequential that would be. Even if every single Chinese family started cranking out three kids tomorrow (Which they won't. When China loosened the One Couple One Child policy, birth rates have declined even further), the productivity hit will be enormous.
Ok great. Then God willing, you should be able to live to see the day where many of these predictions of China's collapse will come to fruition. Most are calling for it to happen by the end of the decade (other than our friend Gordon Chang who predicted 2011), and I believe you yourself made the prediction of 2030.
I don't think I understand where you are coming from.
It seems to me Minivandriver has good information. Which writers seriously challenge Peter Zeihan? I ask because I have followed his work and if there is a challenge I would like to read it.
Coincidentally, someone is challenging Peter Zeihan and repeats some of my points I mentioned in a previous post.
Not much of a refutation, given how you can't seem to offer up any counter arguments.
Sorry, I haven't had much time recently to do Google and respond.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver
I'm 59 and I have multiple clients with manufacturing operations in China. With the exception of one, they are all moving operations to either India, Vietnam, or even the upper peninsula of Michigan.
That's a nice anecdote. Unfortunately it's just an anecdote.
“I talked to CEOs of Western companies literally every day, and I will tell you that on balance, the majority of them are planning on doing more business in China over the next 10 years, not less,†Bremmer told Yahoo Finance Live. “The reason for that is simple. It's because China is on track, still to be the world's largest economy by 2030. And corporations ultimately want to be where their markets are going to be.â€
And while I read Zeihan and agree with much of what he has to say--chiefly because most of his broad predictions have come true--I also read a lot of other sources on the subject. For example, foreign policy journals such as International Security were pointing out the serious contradictions in the Chinese economy more than a decade ago, particularly the demographic crash. I remember sharing one article in particular to my clients who, at the time, thought I was out of my gourd. You know, the same clients who are now pulling up tent stakes in China and moving elsewhere. In fact, here you go:
Demography is destiny. You can't lose 250,000,000 from your work force between 2010 and 2050 and not have serious consequences. One would have to be a complete idiot to ignore how consequential that would be. Even if every single Chinese family started cranking out three kids tomorrow (Which they won't. When China loosened the One Couple One Child policy, birth rates have declined even further), the productivity hit will be enormous.
Even if they lose 250M, and that's a big if given how this Zeihan character is seemingly pulling numbers of out his arse, they are still the second most populated country globally. They aren't going to collapse in 6-12 months as he predicts. They are already one of the leaders in robotics to pick up the slack of a decreasing workforce.
I think you should diversify your sources, else you'll be stuck in a cycle of confirmation bias.
I think it's hilarious that you prefer a well-known Chinese shill (And, by that, I mean literally paid by the Chinese government). I mean, I guess that means had you stepped into a time machine and gone back 80 years, you'd breathlessly listen to Tokyo Rose and Lord HawHaw and repeat every word they had to say.
Meanwhile, Zeihan isn't perfect, but he's been right on most of the big picture predictions on Ukraine, fracking, and the current state of Chinese economy. At this very moment, we're seeing a spreading refusal among Chinese debtors to pay their mortgages on undeveloped properties, which in turns affects the viability of developers and local governments. It's just an astonishing domino effect that will get out of control unless the Chinese government manages to shake off its torpor and get busy.
Pfft. We're already rejiggering the supply chains. Give it three-five more years and we'll shrug our shoulders.
The United States need only stop tankers leaving the Persian Gulf and China deindustrializes in about three months.
I just don't understand this notion that China is a monolithic economic power. It is an extremely fragile economy that is highly dependent on other countries for its immediate economic survival. Not just in the production of things, but in it's ability to simply function. The problem is that people actually believe the CCP's GDP numbers, which are completely at odds with reality.
that was long time ago,since then they have developed their own economy.
Exports is still important,but they have a vibrant domestic economy,consider the large population.
that was long time ago,since then they have developed their own economy.
Exports is still important,but they have a vibrant domestic economy,consider the large population.
Actually, no. It is the most vulnerable economy in the world. Their entire smoke-and-mirrors model is based on two things: 1) Manufacturers putting operations there and 2) Intellectual property theft. Heck, it wasn't until 2017 that the Chinese learned how to internally manufacture a ballpoint pen.
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