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I don’t watch tv much but I overheard something about China preparing for war and what I thought was something about having their citizens pull out of investments in the US.
So what would happen if this was indeed encouraged? It wouldn’t be an act of war or aggression — perhaps just China wanting to keep wealth within their own country.
GOVERNMENT HAS no business asking its citizens not to hold certain currency,BUT it can impose capital restriction,like converting local currency into foreign currency and sending them overseas,thus weakening the national currency.
Indian merchants at one time cannot ship their goods to overseas customers until they can prove payment have been made to their Indian bank account .at one time,there was also some restriction on hoarding /buying gold,You know how much Indians love their gold.22k and up,none of that 14K crap
Once China invades Taiwan we will sanction them and stop buying their stuff. It will hurt them badly since we buy more of their goods than they buy of ours.
That's what China is preparing for, they saw how the US sanctions are disrupting Russian rubbles and gas from the world. So they are preparing to avoid having future sanctions affect them.
I doubt the US can sanction China ever, if we do. It's suicide for both US and China. We're no longer a manufacturing heavy country, just a few months of Chinese embargo will collapse our economy.
Majority of steel now comes out of China, they already destroyed the US, Germany steel industry.
There's nothing else we outproduce China other than trucks and airplanes.
That's what China is preparing for, they saw how the US sanctions are disrupting Russian rubbles and gas from the world. So they are preparing to avoid having future sanctions affect them.
I doubt the US can sanction China ever, if we do. It's suicide for both US and China. We're no longer a manufacturing heavy country, just a few months of Chinese embargo will collapse our economy.
Majority of steel now comes out of China, they already destroyed the US, Germany steel industry.
There's nothing else we outproduce China other than trucks and airplanes.
Pfft. We're already rejiggering the supply chains. Give it three-five more years and we'll shrug our shoulders.
The United States need only stop tankers leaving the Persian Gulf and China deindustrializes in about three months.
I just don't understand this notion that China is a monolithic economic power. It is an extremely fragile economy that is highly dependent on other countries for its immediate economic survival. Not just in the production of things, but in it's ability to simply function. The problem is that people actually believe the CCP's GDP numbers, which are completely at odds with reality.
Pfft. We're already rejiggering the supply chains. Give it three-five more years and we'll shrug our shoulders.
The United States need only stop tankers leaving the Persian Gulf and China deindustrializes in about three months.
I just don't understand this notion that China is a monolithic economic power. It is an extremely fragile economy that is highly dependent on other countries for its immediate economic survival. Not just in the production of things, but in it's ability to simply function. The problem is that people actually believe the CCP's GDP numbers, which are completely at odds with reality.
Pfft. We're already rejiggering the supply chains. Give it three-five more years and we'll shrug our shoulders.
The United States need only stop tankers leaving the Persian Gulf and China deindustrializes in about three months.
I just don't understand this notion that China is a monolithic economic power. It is an extremely fragile economy that is highly dependent on other countries for its immediate economic survival. Not just in the production of things, but in it's ability to simply function. The problem is that people actually believe the CCP's GDP numbers, which are completely at odds with reality.
You know what is going on. To add to your post, China imports more than 85% of its food, oil, natural gas, coal and raw materials for manufacturing. If global supply chains are widely disrupted for a long duration the United States would be temporarily hurt but China would collapse and suffer a widespread famine. They would have little food, energy and raw materials to work with while the United States could start mobilizing its own resources.
To answer the question of the OP, if Chinese citizens pulled their money out of the U.S. asset prices would drop and American citizens would once again be able to afford houses and other hard assets.
I read the news and read actual geopoliticists and economists, rather than watch YouTube conspiracy videos. You might try it some time. In a recent survey, roughly 75% of CEOs with manufacturing operations based in China are looking to pull out. Two-thirds of foreign workers in China at the moment are looking to leave. Without foreign investment and foreign workers, it's like letting the air out of the balloon of China's growth model. I mean, Apple has just shifted iPad production to Vietnam. That's just one of many. The German government has just announced that they will no longer provide insurance for car manufacturers operating in select Chinese provinces. And it goes on and on.
First thing's first. China has been fudging its economic numbers for years. For example, a few years ago, someone did an interesting analysis of Chinese GDP growth numbers and learned something. Year after year, China's stated growth in GDP is roughly twice that of China's growth in electrical production. This is an economic impossibility, for you need a corresponding growth in electricity to run computers, machinery, consumer appliances, and a host of other things. This is especially true when you learn that China's productivity rates have only inched up over the past twenty years.
Second, China is in the middle of a full-bore demographic crash, the likes of which we've never seen in history. It was recently revealed that China overcounted its 2020 census by 100 million, most of that number being in the working age population. So it seems that China actually reached its peak working age population in 2005, not 2014. To make matters worse, there is a huge imbalance between men and women, with three men to every two women, which means population decline will only accelerate. Recent attempts to revoke the One Couple One Child policy had zero effect on the plunging birthrate.
Your post really represents a huge part of the problem. Because people are buying into Chinese propaganda because they are too lazy to do actual reading on the subject. The rise and fall of China is the most consequential issue of the first half of this century, yet people try to reduce it to Tweets.
China's housing sector has completely collapsed due to astonishing overbuilding, creating the biggest economic bubble of all time. Because provincial and local governments rely on property sales for their tax revenue, that means a sharp reduction in local services. Meanwhile, the banking system is showing signs of collapse, especially in the rural provinces, which will eventually start hitting the coastal banks.
As if this weren't bad enough, this has been exacerbated by Zero Covid, which has slashed economic production rates. The reason for the economically destructive Zero Covid policy? China's touted SinoVac vaccine proved to be ineffective against the original strain, and absolutely useless against the later Covid strains.
And, once again, China imports 85% of its energy, most of which comes from the Middle East. In fact, what little they import from Siberian oil fields is problematic, given how Western firms have pulled out from managing those and the Russians completely lack the technical ability.
In other words, read the news, man.
Last edited by MinivanDriver; 06-03-2022 at 07:33 AM..
You know what is going on. To add to your post, China imports more than 85% of its food, oil, natural gas, coal and raw materials for manufacturing. If global supply chains are widely disrupted for a long duration the United States would be temporarily hurt but China would collapse and suffer a widespread famine. They would have little food, energy and raw materials to work with while the United States could start mobilizing its own resources.
To answer the question of the OP, if Chinese citizens pulled their money out of the U.S. asset prices would drop and American citizens would once again be able to afford houses and other hard assets.
But I seriously doubt Chinese citizens are going to do that, because western investments are the only safe haven they have. In the middle part of the last decade, the Chinese briefly relaxed currency controls, only to watch more than a trillion dollars leave the country in short order. The government staunched the bleeding in a hurry. So now, Chinese money leaves the country through more difficult, circuitous routes.
I don't think people outside China realize what an extremely brittle country it is, both economically and socially. One of the stupidest things people say about China is how China thinks long-term due to how long China's culture has lasted. That tells me that people don't know much about China's history. It has been replete with self-inflicted wounds, balkanization, catastrophic civil wars, famine, and invasions.
Want a perfect example of China's dysfunction as a country? The Great Wall of China. Sure it's picturesque. But it was the whim of emperors, grotesquely expensive in terms of costs, and ultimately didn't do a thing to make China secure.
Last edited by MinivanDriver; 06-03-2022 at 07:23 AM..
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You know what is going on. To add to your post, China imports more than 85% of its food, oil, natural gas, coal and raw materials for manufacturing. If global supply chains are widely disrupted for a long duration the United States would be temporarily hurt but China would collapse and suffer a widespread famine. They would have little food, energy and raw materials to work with while the United States could start mobilizing its own resources.
