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Blue Jays lose to the Rays in extras, Cubs beat the Brewers, but are eliminated because the Marlins beat the Pirates, Reds lose to the Cardinals and are eliminated from the playoffs, and the Astros beat the Diamondbacks again.
Astros elimination number in the West is at 1, but the playoff field is set: The Diamondbacks and Marlins have clinched the final 2 spots in the NL, and the Rangers, Blue Jays & Astros have clinched the final 3 spots in the AL. To set up scenario's because we have the NL 2nd & 3rd Wildcard & AL wildcard 2, AL Wildcard 3, and the AL West all in play, so I'll run through different scenario's and hopefully I covered them all!
In the NL:
Diamondbacks & Marlins both win:
Marlins are the 2nd Wildcard, Diamondbacks are the 3rd Wildcard. No need to make up the suspended game because the Marlins have the tiebreaker over Arizona, so even if the Mets were to come back and win that game and they finished tied, the Marlins win the tiebreaker anyways.
Diamondbacks & Marlins both lose:
Same as above: Marlins second Wildcard, D'Backs 3rd wildcard. No need to play the game Monday since the Marlins own the tiebreaker.
Diamondbacks lose & Marlins win:
Marlins finish a game and a half above the D'Backs.
Diamondbacks win & Marlins lose:
Only scenario which gets us the conclusion of the Monday game since the D'Backs would be a half game in front of the Marlins which would necessitate that suspended game getting finished.
In the AL (a lot more confusing than the NL):
Astros, Rangers, Jays all win:
Rangers win the West, Jays win the second Wildcard, Astros are 3rd wildcard. Astros & Jays would have the same record, but Jays win the tiebreaker due to their season series victory.
Astros & Rangers win; Jays lose:
Rangers win the West, Astros second Wildcard, Jays 3rd wildcard.
Astros & Jays win; Rangers lose:
Astros would win the AL West; Rangers Wildcard 2, Jays Wildcard 3; All 3 would have the same record. The first tiebreaker to be decided would be the AL West, which the Astros would win due to their season-series head to head matchups. Then the Rangers would win the tiebreaker over the Jays due to the season-series which was a lopsided 6-1 final in the Rangers favor.
Astros win; Jays & Rangers lose:
Same as the Astros/Jays win; Rangers lose scenario above
Rangers win; Jays & Astros lose:
Same as the Astros & Rangers winning/Jays losing scenario
Rangers & Jays win; Astros lose:
Same as above.
Jays win; Rangers & Astros lose:
Same scenario as above
Astros, Rangers & Jays all lose:
Same outcome as if all 3 teams win scenario.
Thank you. You lay it out better than if I googled it. My Twins are in so their last game is for practice. I'm going to follow these OTHER AL games. There's gonna be some emotions for the final game and the playoff alignments.
AL #1: Baltimore Orioles
AL #2: Houston Astros
AL #3: Minnesota Twins
AL #4: Tampa Bay Rays
AL #5: Texas Rangers
AL #6: Toronto Blue Jays
NL #1: Atlanta Braves
NL #2: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL #3: Milwaukee Brewers
NL #4: Philadelphia Phillies
NL #5: Miami Marlins
NL #6: Arizona Diamondbacks
Toronto @ Minnesota.
I like Toronto in 3 games. The Twins are currently riding an 18 game postseason losing streak. Not just series losses (which would be bad enough) but actually 18 straight postseason games. Not too many teams have a losing streak of 18 games which is why I think the actual losing streak ends in this series. Both teams have great starting pitching, and a multitude of holes throughout the rest of the roster, which is why I think whoever wins this series ends up beating Houston in the ALDS, and that team will be Toronto.
Texas @ Tampa.
Just too much to overcome for the Rangers losing the division and the bye on the final weekend. What might have been if Scherzer hadn't gotten hurt?? Jordan Montgomery will give the Rangers a chance; the rest of the rotation and the bullpen will blow that chance. Rays in 2.
Miami @ Philadelphia.
Credit to Skip Schumacher and the Marlins for getting here. Their expected win/loss was something like 77-85, so they overachieved by like 8 wins, but they weren't really good against the Phillies (or anyone in the division but the Nats). Also, the 1 run games in the playoffs probably aren't going in your favor either. I hope I'm wrong, but Phillies in 2 games.
Arizona @ Milwaukee.
The D'Backs used their good pitchers this weekend. Merrill Kelly won't start until game 3, Zac Gallen will need to pitch game 2. The D'Backs went for the win, and they lost 4 games in a row against a really bad White Sox team, and an Astros team that was struggling. And they haven't strung hits together; in those 4 losses they've combined for a total of 3 runs.....and 1 of the 3 came in the 9th inning of a game they were already losing. And now they have to go to Milwaukee, where Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta are well rested. Brewers in 2 games.
Toronto @ Houston.
Houston was sub .500 at home, and this team was just so up and down this year, I feel like they may have peaked too soon. The SP with Toronto wins them this series in 5 games.
Tampa @ Baltimore.
This will be a hell of a matchup. Orioles won the season series, but the Rays would have played the 2 games in the Wildcard round while the Orioles would be off, and I'll take the team that's been playing and in rhythm or the team out of rhythm. Rays in 5.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta.
This is a trendy upset pick for the second year in a row but I don't see it (I'm, going in the AL for my upset pick). The Phillies won in this spot last year, so the Braves will know what to look for this year, and Nola isn't nearly as good last year as he was last year. Braves in 4.
Brewers @ Dodgers.
Good news for the Brewers is that with the off day between games 1 & game 2 of the NLDS, Burnes can start games 2 & 5 of the NLDS on regular rest if the Brewers make it that far. This has been a great job for the Dodgers making it to this spot with all their pitching injuries, and that continues. Dodgers in 4.
Toronto @ Tampa.
The Trop has been a house of horrors for the Blue Jays, and since this will be a #4 vs. #6 matchup, the Rays would have home field advantage, and you have to like the Rays chances to make it back to the World Series. Tampa in 6.
Dodgers @ Braves.
They would have met up in the NLCS last year but both got upset by divisional opponents in the NLDS. Braves won in 2021 with home field, while the Dodgers won in 2020 in Arlington, so this is the rubber match so to speak. Dodgers in 7.
Tampa @ Dodgers.
Another rematch of the 2020 Covid season; Dodgers prove their worth as a dynasty, and silence all the critics (like me) who have claimed they are a perennial underachiever as they win the title in a regular season for the first time since 1988. Dodgers in 6.
Tampa is missing so many players, they've managed well over the season, but it'll just be too much. Having 3pm starts in the middle of the workweek is terrible too, the Trop usually struggles with attendance anyway - this isn't going to help. With Lowe and Siri out, Rangers will take them out I think.
The NY Times Athletic polled 20 of their MLB and Fantasy Baseball experts to get their picks, and an early prediction for which team will ultimately take home the World Series trophy. Here are their predictions:
Tampa Bay Rays will beat the Texas Ranger.
Toronto Blue Jays will beat the Minnesota Twins.
Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Their writers have these World Series picks:
Braves, 75%
Phillies, 10%
Orioles, 5%
Dodgers, 5%
Brewers, 5%
As an Orioles fan I'm quite disappointed with any prediction that the O's are only a 5% probability. The Braves (104), Orioles (101), and Dodgers (100) are all 100-game winners, and the Rays won 99 games, so I think it will be a much closer finish to the season than a 75% probability for the Braves.
Writer Jason Stark had this to say:
Quote:
I feel like people have been looking for every reason not to pick the Orioles. But they’re for real. Best record against winning teams in their league. Best record in their division. Best road record. I think they’ve got something special going on there. So I’ll be that guy who picks them! The breakout star of the playoffs will be Adley Rutschman (assuming the Orioles make a run). He’s the new Buster Posey.
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I kinda wonder whether the bye is a plus or minus.
pitchers, especially.. Routine is gold. So, having an extended layoff.. Which, honestly, isn't huge.. It's basically like skipping a start at worst.. but.. I think that affected Atlanta a whole lot last year.
Last year, the only teams that had the bye that won were in the AL, and the Yankees.. Barely squeaked by.. While, of course, Houston wound up winning it all.
I kinda wonder whether the bye is a plus or minus.
pitchers, especially.. Routine is gold. So, having an extended layoff.. Which, honestly, isn't huge.. It's basically like skipping a start at worst.. but.. I think that affected Atlanta a whole lot last year.
Last year, the only teams that had the bye that won were in the AL, and the Yankees.. Barely squeaked by.. While, of course, Houston wound up winning it all.
Good point, but most/some/all? off the teams with a bye will do simulated games, with real MLB umps that they pay to come in and call balls and strikes. it's not like the players are just sitting around playing video games for 5 days!
Okay, Tampa Bay and Toronto are out after losing again today.
The next round of the AL playoffs will start 07 October:
- Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
- Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
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Okay, Tampa Bay and Toronto are out after losing again today.
The next round of the AL playoffs will start 07 October:
- Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
- Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
You DO know, that I will no longer be rooting for your Orioles if they end up playing my Twins.
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