City of Atlanta has the highest growth rate in the region

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Except the ARC knows there were over 11,000 dwelling building permits in the City of Atlanta issued in 2022 alone. They also know where they are located, how many bedrooms, and the the average residents per dwelling trends are for each building type in different areas across the region. They also have data on likely vacancy rates over.

To me, that's a wild over-extrapolation on ARC's part, to take new units for a net population gain. How about deceased Atlantans? Those who moved to Cumming? New births compared to last year? Local planning groups are not US Census, which considers the "non-growth, non-hype" part of demographics, not just the sexy stuff like construction cranes. I doubt the 2023 US Census estimate next year is going to report anything like 14,300 (+2.8%) new Atlantans. Their numbers will be more modest -- not to mention more homer-proof. We'll have to wait and see.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

To me, that's a wild over-extrapolation on ARC's part, to take new units for a net population gain. How about deceased Atlantans? Those who moved to Cumming? New births compared to last year? Local planning groups are not US Census, which considers the "non-growth, non-hype" part of demographics, not just the sexy stuff like construction cranes. I doubt the 2023 US Census estimate next year is going to report anything like 14,300 (+2.8%) new Atlantans. Their numbers will be more modest -- not to mention more homer-proof. We'll have to wait and see.

Honestly dude... it sounds like a bit of a stretch and some ignorance/laziness on your part, because you're looking for an excuse to try to win a dying argument.

Yes, of course there is always some natural change due to deaths and births, again this is a known thing and is factored in. This is a given thing without growth in number of dwellings. This is a given... anywhere.

People die, people are born, and dwellings are switched out and reoccupied by different people.

Inbound/outbound migration, of course, again a widely researched thing. Many people leave, many come in and these are researched subjects with known values to the demographic researchers. People move to Cumming and the dwelling they occupied is reoccupied by new owners/renters.

This is why you research number of dwellings, vacancy rates, and people per dwelling. The latter of which was the crux of my original argument.

None of that is an excuse to counteract the simple fact that there are 12,000 new dwellings under construction in a single year, in addition to all of the other normal plus/minus factors that influence any given geographic area.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Honestly dude... ..None of that is an excuse to counteract the simple fact that there are 12,000 new dwellings under construction in a single year, in addition to all of the other normal plus/minus factors that influence any given geographic area.

Honestly, dude, no one is "counteracting the simple fact" of 12,000 new housing units. I am countering a demographic deduction that smacks of pure Atlanta homerism: that 12,000 new units translate into 14,300 NET new residents in the City of Atlanta over a 12-month period.. That is speculative and unproven -- by you and by ARC. What will you say when the US Census Bureau reins in the hometown figures next year? We'll wait till next spring for the Bureau's take -- no rush. Till then, I remain skeptical.

[Datdudebrah]

I'm on ARC's side

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

Honestly, dude, no one is "counteracting the simple fact" of 12,000 new housing units. I am countering a demographic deduction that smacks of pure Atlanta homerism: that 12,000 new units translate into 14,300 NET new residents in the City of Atlanta over a 12-month period.. That is speculative and unproven -- by you and by ARC. What will you say when the US Census Bureau reins in the hometown figures next year? We'll wait till next spring for the Bureau's take -- no rush. Till then, I remain skeptical.

Did an Atlanta booster run over your cat or something? Give it a rest, already.

[stephenMM]

I don't know about the statistics, but when I was looking to move to another Southern city or state, Atlanta, Ga was the first one that got eliminated. Housing prices are ridiculously high. I don't think its worth it, but its there, which means other people definitely want to live there. Georgia doesn't have a lot of people flocking to it other than places like Savannah, which is a smaller city (but also has crazy high housing prices).

[testa50]

Originally Posted by stephenMM

I don't know about the statistics, but when I was looking to move to another Southern city or state, Atlanta, Ga was the first one that got eliminated. Housing prices are ridiculously high. I don't think its worth it, but its there, which means other people definitely want to live there. Georgia doesn't have a lot of people flocking to it other than places like Savannah, which is a smaller city (but also has crazy high housing prices).

Fair that you feel this way, but the stats say otherwise:

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/metro-home-prices-q2-2023-ranked-median-single-family-2023-08-10.pdf?_gl=1*u3bq5h*_gcl_au*MTg4NjA2NDMwNy4xNjkxOD U5OTgx

Metro Atlanta median sale price is below Charlotte, Nashville, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, DFW, Phoenix, Raleigh, Tucson, etc.

The city of Atlanta does have ridiculously high housing prices (probably outweighing many of those central cities) but that’s driven by the high desirability of living within the city of Atlanta and the relatively small city limits of the city proper.

[ggplicks]

ridiculously high prices? Talk about an exaggeration lol. Atlanta is cheaper (far cheaper actually) than Austin, Nashville, all the Florida cities besides Jacksonville, Chicago, Charleston, Philly, NYC, DC, Boston, SF, SD, LA, etc.



All cities of varying sizes. What's crazy is how much more expensive Nashville and Austin are despite being far smaller than ATL.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by stephenMM

I don't know about the statistics, but when I was looking to move to another Southern city or state, Atlanta, Ga was the first one that got eliminated. Housing prices are ridiculously high. I don't think its worth it, but its there, which means other people definitely want to live there. Georgia doesn't have a lot of people flocking to it other than places like Savannah, which is a smaller city (but also has crazy high housing prices).

That’s a good point that a city and metropolitan area like Savannah obviously is attracting many new residents with its high-profile status as both a major tourist destination on the Eastern Seaboard and as one of the world’s busiest and fastest growing international seaports.

But Atlanta’s status as one of the continent’s largest corporate and industrial hubs that is one of the nation’s fastest growing metropolitan areas that has long been the nation’s top relocation destination for African-Americans and has recently emerged as the top relocation destination in the country for Asians (particularly in the metro Atlanta suburban communities of North Fulton, Forsyth and Gwinnett counties) is what is and has been fueling Georgia’s robust population growth rates for decades.

With the state of Georgia growing by more than 12% between 2010 and 2022 (from 9,712,209 residents in 2010 to 10,912,876 residents in 2022) and appearing to be growing so fast that the state looks to have at least a reasonable shot at possibly potentially catching and overtaking Ohio (which had a population of 11,756,058 residents in 2022) to become the nation’s 7th most populous state by the 2030 Census, the evidence appears to show that Georgia (largely due to the decades-long explosive growth of the Atlanta metropolitan area) very noticeably appears to be a state that does indeed seem to have a lot of people flocking to it to live.