City of Atlanta has the highest growth rate in the region (Savannah: sale, how much)

[Fountain-of-youth]

World population review is probably second best to the census.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/cities/georgia

[testa50]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

With these City of Atlanta stats, we might be "resetting our model" and incorporating new urban conditions, but we're still going off the deep end with the numbers. Sorry, a population gain of +2.8% over just one year (ARC) versus +0.1 over two years (US Census) is a huge chasm in demographics and for an older city of 500K. One of the sources has to be way off. And for the more reliable source, I must go with the bad old US Census Bureau. They are more to be trusted. I'm just a messenger here -- giving ARC a reality check. And I think certain folks are giving far too much credit to the yokels.

This is such a good point, there’s simply no external factor I can think of whatsoever that drove a large, sudden shift in demographics of major cities in the 2020-2022 era. Those were typical and boring years, demographically and otherwise. Nothing notable at all happened. Everything was totally precedented.

Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that 2020-2022 trends will straight line right into 2023. Anyone who doesn’t see that is just a yokel. Haw haw.

Also, it’s so devious how the ARC underestimated Atlanta’s 2020 population compared to the census just so they could turn around and overestimate 2023. All part of their devious plan to booster the city and hinder the real engine of economic growth, Cherokee County, for a period of about 7 months until those squares at the Census Department release new estimates and ruin the party.

They are yokels, indeed, but such cunning and smart yokels. And boy do they ever stick to a plan!

[Datdudebrah]

Based on all of the cranes up in midtown and gentrification west of Northside Dr we have more of these articles coming.

[equinox63]

Just reading through the thread, if I can say anything about you guys, you all are definitely thorough.

But are you sure "yokel" is the proper term to use here? Maybe I'm wrong, but aren't "city boosters" and "local yokels" opposing terms?

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by equinox63

Aren't "city boosters" and "local yokels" opposing terms?

"Yokel" has bad connotations, so I'll apologize and withdraw it. But "proud Atlanta homer" might apply to anyone who believes these ARC estimates for the City of Atlanta. A gain of 2.8% for 2023 is effectively a population increase of 28% for this decade. We're talking about the City of Atlanta, not one of its booming outer counties. Atlanta, still confined to its old 1958 boundaries (with that little sliver that protrudes into DeKalb County), has very little chance of following ARC's arc -- not without massive annexation or city-county consolidation. Atlanta and Savannah are the two GA cities where that's politically impossible, and so the Census Bureau's estimates are much more realiistic: a growth rate of 1% to 3% by 2030. All the construction cranes in the world won't help the City of Atlanta reach 620,000 residents by 2030. ARC is pretty much forecasting just that. I think it's very unlikely.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by Fountain-of-youth

World population review is probably second best to the census.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/cities/georgia

But World Population Review left Macon off its Georgia list (Macon is shown on their map, but it isn't ranked on the list.) WPR did that because it's based in Europe, I believe, and never got the memo about Macon and Bibb County's consolidated in 2014. WPR also tends to lowball Georgia city populations. But it keeps closer to US Census numbers.

[arjay57]

I can see the population growing inside the city limits but how will high rent and housing prices affect that?

Granted there are a ton of high income people these days. It could be that we're simply continuing to sort ourselves out between haves and have-nots.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

I'm an old Georgia boy. That probably makes me more skeptical about ATL boosterism (it's always there), but those ARC numbers foretell at least 100,000 more people in the City of Atlanta within 10 years, 2020-2030. Not likely, I'd say. In fact, it's most unlikely. Look, we all want Atlanta to be successful and to prosper -- and its metro area will show solid growth in the coming decade. But all the roommate movements of Gen Z in the world won't make Atlanta pass 600,000, 625,000 by 2030. That's full-blown Atlanta-love bordering on self-promotion. I don't buy it -- or rather, I don't buy ARC's stats. Their City of Atlanta numbers are wishful thinking.

Except the ARC knows there were over 11,000 dwelling building permits in the City of Atlanta issued in 2022 alone. They also know where they are located, how many bedrooms, and the the average residents per dwelling trends are for each building type in different areas across the region. They also have data on likely vacancy rates over time.

This allows them to better calculate short-term estimates of year-to-year changes.

If you were -here- on the ground you'd see these new apartments being built left and right everywhere, while simultaneously more people moving into these apartments with more roommates due to sky-high housing costs in the Atlanta region.

This is a problem across the state, but it particularly more pronounced in Atlanta. Living costs have grown more here.

--TO BE CLEAR-- the ARC did not argue 625,000 residents by 2030. You did.

The ARC said a bit over 14,000 residents moved in in 2022. That is supported by the year-to-year building permits, completion activity and changes in year-to-year trends. Over the next 10 years if there is a cooling in the home or apartment building market overall or changes in rent/cost of home ownership it will have year-to-year impacts. Typically, peak building isn't sustained for continuously over 10 years. Rather, there are year-to-year fluctuations.

But, yes, if dwellings are built as a pace of 12,000+/year continuously in the city of Atlanta for 10 years, you can probably expect 90%+ of them to be bought or rents and have people move into them increasing the population a large amount. The real question is if building trends change over a 10 year period, but we know what it has been in 2022 pretty accurately.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by arjay57

I can see the population growing inside the city limits but how will high rent and housing prices affect that?

Granted there are a ton of high income people these days. It could be that we're simply continuing to sort ourselves out between haves and have-nots.

Generally high prices will influence more building over time, but there is a lag-effect initiating this. I would expect building to be high in the short and medium term. We are probably seeing a building boom now after years of increasing prices.

Building activity will cool if prices in rent/home price decline as it would be less appealing to developers, due to lower-margins and more risk.

If rent cools, you will see more single-individual households form. This could lower the residents per dwelling and lessen the city's continued growth.


What sometimes prevents this if there are outside impediments to stopping builders (ie. zoning policy, nimbys, high cost for building materials, labor-shortage, etc..)

[ShenardL]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Except the ARC knows there were over 11,000 dwelling building permits in the City of Atlanta issued in 2022 alone. They also know where they are located, how many bedrooms, and the the average residents per dwelling trends are for each building type in different areas across the region. They also have data on likely vacancy rates over time.

This allows them to better calculate short-term estimates of year-to-year changes.

If you were -here- on the ground you'd see these new apartments being built left and right everywhere, while simultaneously more people moving into these apartments with more roommates due to sky-high housing costs in the Atlanta region.

This is a problem across the state, but it particularly more pronounced in Atlanta. Living costs have grown more here.

--TO BE CLEAR-- the ARC did not argue 625,000 residents by 2030. You did.

The ARC said a bit over 14,000 residents moved in in 2022. That is supported by the year-to-year building permits, completion activity and changes in year-to-year trends. Over the next 10 years if there is a cooling in the home or apartment building market overall or changes in rent/cost of home ownership it will have year-to-year impacts. Typically, peak building isn't sustained for continuously over 10 years. Rather, there are year-to-year fluctuations.

But, yes, if dwellings are built as a pace of 12,000+/year continuously in the city of Atlanta for 10 years, you can probably expect 90%+ of them to be bought or rents and have people move into them increasing the population a large amount. The real question is if building trends change over a 10 year period, but we know what it has been in 2022 pretty accurately.

Yup, 30% of the new construction housing permits in metro Atlanta are in the City of Atlanta alone despite being only 8% of the metro population.