Tri-Cities approaching 300K (Seattle, Spokane, Tacoma: condos, new home, construction)

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by grega94

Don't forget Umatilla Co, OR: 76,456

that brings up the theoretical CSA up to 839,956 making it #61 in between Madison and Modesto.

Good catch. Yes, agreed this hypothetical CSA would and should include Umatilla Co, just 24 miles south of the Southridge part of Kennewick.

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by M3 Mitch

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-Ci...ropolitan_area

Wikipedia article on what the Tri MSA is defined as. It's a construct of the US Census so they have their own way of doing things, I guess. The right way, the wrong way, and the Navy way, so to speak.

I was trying to use common sense and group surrounding communities with the Tri that would reasonably contain mostly people who work and/or shop in the Tri. That makes sense to me but that's not how the Census people do it.

Absolutely understand your point on this. In fact some bigger CSA's break up counties in their calculations, but less so in smaller examples, especially where there is a lot of uninhabited land between principle cities as we see in Eastern Washington.

[grega94]

Originally Posted by M3 Mitch

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-Ci...ropolitan_area

Wikipedia article on what the Tri MSA is defined as. It's a construct of the US Census so they have their own way of doing things, I guess. The right way, the wrong way, and the Navy way, so to speak.

I was trying to use common sense and group surrounding communities with the Tri that would reasonably contain mostly people who work and/or shop in the Tri. That makes sense to me but that's not how the Census people do it.

There are also Urban Areas which are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as contiguous census block groups with a population density of at least 1,000/sq*mi (390/km2) with any census block groups around this core having a density of at least 500/sq*mi (190/km2). Urban areas are delineated without regard to political boundaries. Sadly they only update it every 10 years with the census.

According to this List The Tri-Cities Urban area had 210,975 people in 2010 making it #171 in the US.

[pnwguy2]

The "urban area" definition is probably not a good application to the Tri-Cities, since the cities are still separated by some areas of open land, though that is getting slimmer. For all intents and purposes, the MSA is closing in on 300K, if not already there. As I drive around the area all I am seeing these days are tractors clearing more and more land for development. It really is impressive. My only worry is if we are not creating another bubble, but right now that seems unlikely.

[pnwguy2]

New residential construction at Chapel Hill Blvd. and Road 64 just south of I-182. This is
one of the last plats of land on I-182 through West Pasco.

Also new residential construction just east of Steptoe in Kennewick between Steptoe and Leslie. Nearby, another new development going up at 10th East between Clodfelter/Steptoe and Columbia Center Blvd.

There doesn't seem to be any slowdown in residential construction in the Tri-Cities.

[teriann]

I only hope you are right about the Chili's and TGI Friday's! As for Nordstrom I am not sure. A story heard by us native Tri Cities folks is when Columbia Center was beginning Nordstrom was approached as a anchor store. The response was get rid of The Bon Marche and we will come. The response from the CC administration was we will keep The Bon Marche. Nordstrom responded by not coming and stating that they will never build a store in the Tri Cities! Any truth to this, I don't know but we have yet to see Nordstrom! As for me give me a Trader Joe's or Whole Foods and I would be in Tri Cities heaven!! I can't understand why we don't have one of these stores yet?

[pnwguy2]

I totally agree a Whole Foods and/or Trader Joe's would do well in the Tri. In fact, I've heard rumblings of both, but nothing concrete as of yet. The Queensgate area seems ripe for such.

As for Nordstrom, I don't know the backstory, but I doubt that it came down to the old "Bon" vs "Nordstrom". I believe the two actually work better when they compete in the same mall (of course today the Bon is Macy's). I think the more likely story is that the Tri-Cities has had some economic ups and downs and that, more than anything else, was a big caution flag for Nordy's. As for today, those ups and downs seem to be a thing of the past, but I don't believe Nordstrom is in any major expansion mode today due to the Brick & Mortar retail vs. online advancement.

[grega94]

2017 numbers are in, here are the largest metro areas in the inland northwest.

Metro: 2016 | 2017 | Change | Percentage
Boise: 690,810 | 709,845 | +19,035 | +2.76%
Spokane: 554,777 | 564,236 | +9,459 | +1.71%
Tri Cities: 283,799 | 290,296 | +6,497 | +2.29%
Yakima: 249,323 | 250,193 | +870 | +0.35%
Bend: 180,675 | 186,875 | +6,200 | +3.43%
Coeur d'Alene: 153,144 | 157,637 | +4,493 | +2.93%
Idaho Falls: 142,405 | 145,643 | +3,238 | +2.27%
Wenatchee: 117,240 | 118,478 | +1,238 | +1.06%
Pocatello: 84,379 | 85,269 | +890 | +1.05%
Walla Walla: 63,989 | 64,614 | +625 | +0.98%
Lewiston: 62,406 | 62,920 | +514 | +0.82%

CSA/*MSA: 2016 | 2017 | Change | Percentage
Boise: 770,213 | 790,363 | +20,150 | +2.62%
Spokane: 707,921 | 721,873 | +13,952 | +1.97%
*Tri Cities: 283,799 | 290,296 | +6,497 | +2.29%
*Yakima: 249,323 | 250,193 | +870 | +0.35%
Idaho Falls: 239,329 | 243,805 | +4,476 | +1.87%
Bend: 203,019 | 209,998 | +6,979 | +3.44%
*Wenatchee: 117,240 | 118,478 | +1,238 | +1.06%
Moses Lake: 113,166 | 114,664 | +1,498 | +1.32%
*Pocatello: 84,379 | 85,269 | +890 | +1.05%
*Walla Walla: 63,989 | 64,614 | +625 | +0.98%
*Lewiston: 62,406 | 62,920 | +514 | +0.82%

Tri-Cities is the 3rd largest metro area in the region and will remain so for the foreseeable future since Yakima is growing very slowly at the moment. But the fastest growing metro area is Bend, OR in terms of percentage, and Boise, ID in terms of net population change.

[grega94]

And here are Tri-Cities year on year growth

2016-17: +6,497 | +2.29%
2015-16: +4,819 | +1.73%
2014-15: +4,773 | +1.74%
2013-14: +3,227 | +1.19%
2012-13: +2,745 | +1.02%
2011-12: +4,713 | +1.79%
2010-11: +7,969 | +3.12%
2010-17: +34,743 | +13.60%

[pnwguy2]

Thanks for those numbers.

I agree, Boise is outperforming Tri-Cities at this point. But TC is no slouch here, either. The last year shows the biggest percentage since 2010, and the overall percentage continues to be strong. Houses continue to be built at record levels, and they still seem to be selling very quickly in the TC.