Tri-Cities approaching 300K (Spokane, Yakima, Kennewick: 2014, chapel, houses)

[grega94]

Well the tri-cities by them selves only have 232,740, but the metro area has 283,846

The three cities on their own have added 50,984 people (+28.1%) since 2010 which had 181,756 people back then.
The metro area has added 30,506 people (+12.0%) since 2010 which had 253,340 people back then.

I'm guess the discrepancy has to do with annexations, Isn't Pasco trying to annex west Pasco?

Also how long do you think it will take for Tri Cities to catch up to Spokane and over take it? the three cities are already larger than Spokane's population of 215,973, now it just has to catch up to the metro pop of 556,634 and CSA pop of 710,945. Also do you think that Walla Walla county, Yakima county or Grant county will ever be added into Tri Cities CSA?

[pnwguy2]

Good questions.

The metro includes West Richland, Prosser and Finley, outside of the three. (Burbank is in Walla Walla Co. and not included but there is not much growth there). West Richland is growing just as fast as Richland, Pasco, and Kennewick.

West Pasco is indeed part of the city of Pasco. As an aside, when I lived in the Tri in the early 90's West Pasco was just open fields. Today, it has increased the city population by 2-fold, and they are still building.

The Tri-Cities MSA will hit 300K by 2020, there is little doubt. As for a Spokane comparison, hard to say, as that area also continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than Tri-Cities. But by MSA standards this could take awhile.

I don't believe a CSA exists in Yakima/Tri/Walla Walla. I could see one perhaps with Tri and Walla Walla, but Yakima is perhaps too distant. (about 80 miles apart).

[grega94]

Yeah after taking a closer look at Spokane's growth, it will take a long time for Tri Cities to catch up, sure the growth rate in Tri Cities is much larger, but in terms of the amount of people added they are very similar

Spokane: +7,057 (+3.4%) vs. Tri-Cities: +50,984 (+28.1%)

Spokane MSA: +28,881 (+5.5%) vs. Tri-Cities MSA: +30,506 (+12.0%)

Spokane CSA: +44,699 (+6.7%) vs. N/A

[M3 Mitch]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

Good questions.

The metro includes West Richland, Prosser and Finley, outside of the three. (Burbank is in Walla Walla Co. and not included but there is not much growth there). West Richland is growing just as fast as Richland, Pasco, and Kennewick.

West Pasco is indeed part of the city of Pasco. As an aside, when I lived in the Tri in the early 90's West Pasco was just open fields. Today, it has increased the city population by 2-fold, and they are still building.

The Tri-Cities MSA will hit 300K by 2020, there is little doubt. As for a Spokane comparison, hard to say, as that area also continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than Tri-Cities. But by MSA standards this could take awhile.

I don't believe a CSA exists in Yakima/Tri/Walla Walla. I could see one perhaps with Tri and Walla Walla, but Yakima is perhaps too distant. (about 80 miles apart).

I can see including West and Finley, that makes sense, but, to me, including Prosser as part of the Tri-Cities is a bit disingenuous to say the least. I could see maybe including Benton City, AKA Bentucky, maybe, although that to me is a different biome as well.

Just IMHO, including Burbank, regardless that it is in Walla Walla county, makes more sense than Prosser, which is separated from the Tri by a long stretch of unincorporated ground.

But I am not in the business of figuring out MSAs.

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by M3 Mitch

I can see including West and Finley, that makes sense, but, to me, including Prosser as part of the Tri-Cities is a bit disingenuous to say the least. I could see maybe including Benton City, AKA Bentucky, maybe, although that to me is a different biome as well.

Just IMHO, including Burbank, regardless that it is in Walla Walla county, makes more sense than Prosser, which is separated from the Tri by a long stretch of unincorporated ground.

But I am not in the business of figuring out MSAs.

You bring up a fair point, but when you get into smaller MSA's it is totally about county population. Since Prosser is entirely in Benton County it is part of the Richland/Pasco/Kennewick MSA. (Benton and Franklin Counties).

[j_k_k]

County lines don't always make sense as boundaries. For one thing, the counties were drawn up back when the population was far smaller. Mitch is right: Burbank is part of the TC. I would describe Connell and Prosser as outlying and not directly part, but with significant ties and connections. So it must be in Prosser's case, as it is the seat of a county where the vast majority of residents don't live in Prosser. Ki-Be would be somewhere between Prosser's status and full inclusion, it would seem; a valid judgment call. Just because that's how the government (or whoever) defines MSAs does not make it make sense. Any methodology that says Burbank is not part of the TC area just because it happens to be in WW County likewise makes no logical sense.

[pnwguy2]

I am certainly not arguing that these boundaries make "sense". I was simply trying to explain the methodology of how they are determined.

Burbank makes more sense in the Tri metro than Prosser, but because it is in Walla Walla county, it is not. Maybe someday a CSA will be established in this area, but the population, while growing bigtime, doesn't really qualify as such right now.

[pnwguy2]

OK let's create a fictional CSA for Eastern Washington. Let's try Yakima/Tri-Cities/Walla Walla/Moses Lake as they all get the same media (more or less) and are within about an hour+ of each other. Let's also include Ellensburg, though a bit of an outlier. All numbers are 2017 estimates.

Here is how it works out:

Yakima Co. 253,000
Benton Co. 193.500
Franklin Co. 96,300
Grant Co. 95.600
Walla Walla Co. 61,400
Kittitas Co. 44,700
Adams Co. 19,900

Grand total: 763,500

So where would that show up in rankings of other CSA'S?

Right at about #66, and bigger than the Spokane/Couer 'd Alene CSA.

However, this is still fictional and adding Yakima to the CSA is a bit of a stretch since the metros are 80 miles apart.

[grega94]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

OK let's create a fictional CSA for Eastern Washington. Let's try Yakima/Tri-Cities/Walla Walla/Moses Lake as they all get the same media (more or less) and are within about an hour+ of each other. Let's also include Ellensburg, though a bit of an outlier. All numbers are 2017 estimates.

Here is how it works out:

Yakima Co. 253,000
Benton Co. 193.500
Franklin Co. 96,300
Grant Co. 95.600
Walla Walla Co. 61,400
Kittitas Co. 44,700
Adams Co. 19,900

Grand total: 763,500

So where would that show up in rankings of other CSA'S?

Right at about #66, and bigger than the Spokane/Couer 'd Alene CSA.

However, this is still fictional and adding Yakima to the CSA is a bit of a stretch since the metros are 80 miles apart.

Don't forget Umatilla Co, OR: 76,456

that brings up the theoretical CSA up to 839,956 making it #61 in between Madison and Modesto.

[M3 Mitch]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-Ci...ropolitan_area

Wikipedia article on what the Tri MSA is defined as. It's a construct of the US Census so they have their own way of doing things, I guess. The right way, the wrong way, and the Navy way, so to speak.

I was trying to use common sense and group surrounding communities with the Tri that would reasonably contain mostly people who work and/or shop in the Tri. That makes sense to me but that's not how the Census people do it.