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In theory battery prices should come down over the next 10 years... so Vinfast could lower the monthly fee.
Yeah, and there's substantial residual value in old EV batteries, particularly as grid storage: https://blog.ucsusa.org/hanjiro-ambr...-ev-batteries/
However, doing all this requires a well-capitalized operation - and even though EV startups may be worth a lot right now, the auto industry is not very forgiving!
This sounds a riff off of Better Place, which had the idea that batteries would be swappable...cars would use better places's batteries and owners would pay a monthly fee. Instead of recharging the batteries when on the road, you'd pull into a swapping station and the depleted battery would be pulled out and replaced with a fully charged one, which took less time than filling a car with gas.
Wound up going bankrupt 10 years ago, but for a while the CEO was a rock star with a snazzy TED talk.
As a subscriber, your battery will be replaced under Vinfast's lease structure once it depletes to 70%. You then get a new battery as part of your monthly fee.
For a manufacturer that includes the battery in the purchase price, that 70% depletion is expected around year 8 - 10 based on warranties offered by Tesla, GM, Ford, VW, et... For a Vinfast, assuming a $150 month lease payment, at year 10 the owner would have spent $18,000 on battery lease payments if a swap is needed at that point. You then get a new battery for the new $18,000 of lease payments for year 10 - 20.
In theory battery prices should come down over the next 10 years... so Vinfast could lower the monthly fee. If would also mean the full replacement cost on a ten year old Tesla's battery will have also come down.
There is no reason to assume that battery prices will come down. The opposite is likely to happen, considering demand for them isn't even that great at the moment. If demand were ever to approach the level of a gasoline powered car, the supply would be unable to match and the prices would rise substantially. The raw materials going into batteries have gone up even more in price than gasoline, forcing Tesla to raise its prices several grand across-the-board, and source lower quality batteries with reduced range.
There is no reason to assume that battery prices will come down. The opposite is likely to happen, considering demand for them isn't even that great at the moment. If demand were ever to approach the level of a gasoline powered car, the supply would be unable to match and the prices would rise substantially. The raw materials going into batteries have gone up even more in price than gasoline, forcing Tesla to raise its prices several grand across-the-board, and source lower quality batteries with reduced range.
Battery technology is in infancy. Battery design is improving as well as to increase range.
And, battery manufacturing facilities are planned all over the place.
Electric vehicles are in toddlerhood, and rapid advancement is easily observed.
A great deal of resistance to electric vehicles is founded in general resistance to change, without much merit.
Michael Hyland
@MichaelWNCN
·
3m
New details on Vietnamese electric vehicle maker VinFast building a plant in Chatham County: bringing 7,500 jobs with average wage of about $51K, company investing just over $4 billion by 2026, production to begin Q4 of 2024 @WNCN
#ncpol #ncga
Was mentioned over the weekend over in the Chatham megasite thread.
Odds this actually comes to fruition? Zero name recognition in the U.S. and very limited history of selling cars at all. Best of luck to them, but they've got a lot to overcome if they're going to succeed here.
It has a shot to succeed (certainly a better shot than Boom Supersonic here in the Triad). There are challenges for sure. Hopefully they get it figured out. 7500 jobs is a nice development.
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