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The July 1, 2021 population estimates are in, and these are the Triangle counties ranked by absolute population growth (not by percentage) since the 2020 Census (15 months period), and their estimated population.
Fascinating estimates. If accurate, Franklin County may be experiencing the boom that had escaped it until now. The county has seen a flurry of proposed home building in the last several months, reflecting the population boom underway there. We already knew Johnston was growing at a breakneck pace, but this level of growth is staggering. I think Chatham’s growth is only starting to pop and will be explosive by late decade. This level of growth is especially astounding amongst a nationwide record low rate of population growth
On the flip side, the relatively low rates of population growth for Mecklenburg and Durham Counties is rather shocking. It seems that increasing housing prices may be a factor, but that hasn’t cooled Wake County’s growth yet.
The percentages relative to the start of the period (2020):
Wake 1.84%
Johnston 4.86%
Franklin 4.56%
Chatham 2.10%
Durham 0.40%
Granville 1.63%
Orange 0.13%
Person 0.08%
Vance -0.92%
On the flip side, the relatively low rates of population growth for Mecklenburg and Durham Counties is rather shocking. It seems that increasing housing prices may be a factor, but that hasn’t cooled Wake County’s growth yet.
Durham and Mecklenburg are much closer to saturation buildout than Wake County is. Wake just still has more developable raw land available.
I feel more than
Durham: +1,293 (326,126)
have move to Durham. I think more than 1,293 apartments/townhouses/single family houses have been built in the past 15 months.
"Durham and Mecklenburg are much closer to saturation buildout than Wake County is. Wake just still has more developable raw land available."
There's still land available in areas north of I-85.
Actually, Wake County was already more densely populated than Durham Co. as of the 2020 Census.
Mecklenburg is definitely more densely populated, and if Wake reached their density it would have 1.8M people. As it stands, my guess for 2030 population for Wake is 1.3M.
Actually, Wake County was already more densely populated than Durham Co. as of the 2020 Census.
Mecklenburg is definitely more densely populated, and if Wake reached their density it would have 1.8M people. As it stands, my guess for 2030 population for Wake is 1.3M.
Density in Wake due to many condos, apartment communities, etc, yes.
But, raw land? There is much more in Wake County than Durham or Mecklenburg. Western Wake is much closer to full build-out than southern or eastern Wake.
If Franklin County’s estimates are accurate and sustained, the county could leapfrog over 100,000 people by 2030. That would bolster arguments for extending US 1 as a freeway into Franklin, perhaps to Henderson County.
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