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Those numbers for Person and Vance are abysmal. Even Vance's smaller neighbor county, Warren, gained 100 people in the same period for a total of 18,762.
How accurate are these predictions anyhow? The 2020 census numbers fell markedly short of them.
One problem is the 2020 base they're using for the 2021 comparison/starting point is iffy. Because of delays with 2020 Census data, they're using a "blended" base from 2010 data adjusted by various factors including some of the 2020 data that they do have.
It’s interesting to look at the growth rates, in addition to the raw numbers. Wake has been pretty consistent for awhile as far as its growth curve. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCWAKE3POP
In raw numbers, Wake’s obviously adding a ton of people each year, of course. But it has been so consistent that it really shouldn’t come as a surprise if you’ve been paying attention. And if leaders act surprised at the impact of limited new housing, increased traffic, etc., then they are either lying or stupid, but maybe both.
This CSA is not big. We're what, 31st biggest in the country in terms of population? We're still north of 80% undeveloped land (Cincinnati CSA, where I was born, is slightly bigger pop wise, with equal amounts of undeveloped land, Boston CSA, where we moved from, is 4 times bigger people wise and has 60% undeveloped land).
I think the issue, both in a macro and micro sense, is the infrastructure is woefully behind, which I guess makes sense given how small this area has historically been (JONOV's stat always comes to mind. In the 1880s, cities like Providence, Cincinnati, Milwaukee were all above 100K residents, Raleigh was less than 10K residents).
Locally to me, we only have three E-W roads around town; Burlington Mills, Rogers, and 98. Close anyone of them and you turn Forestville into a parking lot. Something will eventually have to give. You can't have roads that served a town of 10K hope to serve a town of 60,70,80,90K.
In short, its a manufactured over population. Not a raw number overpopulation. And therein lies the rub. People (in general, not you) complain about the issue (such as traffic) but aren't willing to pay/do what it takes to alleviate.
I respect the history of the area; it was rural and agricultural based. But that was then, this is now. And it is not that anymore. Sure people still wish we have gas lamp lighters because they were quant. But electricity rendered them useless and we adjusted accordingly.
Let's not forget Alamance County west of Orange, which at 176,353 would rank fifth ahead of Orange both in overall population and population growth year to year (more than 2,000 added). Many people who work in the Triangle are living there due to a relatively cheaper cost of living even with a 30- to 45-minute commute or more to some jobs.
The theory is that with I-885 (the East End Connector) finally finished to connect the Durham Freeway with US 70 to I-85, residents in Granville County should have an easier time to reach RTP and thus the county's population will grow faster. Guess we'll see in the next few years whether that prediction proves to be true.
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