Local rail news (Kissimmee, Sanford, Lake Mary: employment, trains, car)

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'm for giving Briteline a 3 year trial to see if they can at least break even where they operate currently, prior to any expansion.

Why expand a rail service if its losing Millions? Which is what you'll likely find 3 yrs from now, after you take out all the gov't financial support....like the no interest Bonds they got to build it.

Show me a 100% privately built and operated rail service in the USA, that is profitable...is there 1?

Being the capitalistic society we are I guess it comes as no surprise that there is an expectation by some that rail service should function as a for-profit business. Amtrak and its supporters have been fighting that notion in Congress for years. The rest of the world sees rail transit as an infrastructure component in the same manner we see highways, as a method to move the population around quickly and efficiently. It's doubtful Brightline will be completely self-sufficient and would expect to see some form of government subsidy to keep them afloat after the newness has worn off.

[firmbizzle]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'm for giving Briteline a 3 year trial to see if they can at least break even where they operate currently, prior to any expansion.

Why expand a rail service if its losing Millions? Which is what you'll likely find 3 yrs from now, after you take out all the gov't financial support....like the no interest Bonds they got to build it.

Show me a 100% privately built and operated rail service in the USA, that is profitable...is there 1?

Their profit model included Orlando, that was always the plan. Now that MCO-Miami is open, it’s created so much buzz, Tampa wants to be involved. They are just striking while the iron is hot, which every business should do.

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by firmbizzle

Their profit model included Orlando, that was always the plan. Now that MCO-Miami is open, it’s created so much buzz, Tampa wants to be involved. They are just striking while the iron is hot, which every business should do.

Orlando/Tampa connection will be an even bigger game-changer than Orlando/Miami. With Miami, there has always been the option to fly from Orlando if not wanting to drive. The only alternatives to driving on I-4 are bus (still gets stuck in traffic) and Amtrak (serious delays, unpredictable and not reliable if on a schedule. And VERY crappy train station if one needs to wait for hours during said delays.) No one likes to drive on I-4. I presume that link to be extremely successful.

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by HeartofFlorida

Back in the "old" days of HSR, the preferred site for a Lakeland stop was near Florida Poly due it's high-tech development potential. However in this climate, IF Lakeland gets a Brightline station, I would guess it would be somewhere between US 98 and Kathleen road as both areas have population, significant traffic and existing local transit in place. From a ROW perspective, I would think US 98 would get the greenlight as it has the most useable median space combined with the highest population.

Regarding Sunrail and Polk County, the biggest question will be "How far into Polk will SR go". Lakeland is already designing a new Intermodal station to replace the current Amtrak station (which is not that old) and combine Amtrak, Citrus Connection, Greyhound and Sunrail (if it comes to fruition) just north of RP Funding Center. However, I have serious doubts that CSX is willing to allow Sunrail to extend operations west beyond Auburndale due to the traffic that was shifted from the A-line in Orlando to the S-line through Lakeland to accommodate Sunrail and the CSX ILC in Winter Haven. I'm not saying it won't happen but I'm more inclined to say I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, challenges to be sure. OTOH, it's only a problem because large sections of the route are single-tracked. CSX has a 200 ft. ROW through much of that area so, yeah, it's expensive but it's still far cheaper than having to buy ROW. Lakeland and Polk leaders are pushing pretty hard for service to Lakeland. I'm thinking 10 years but it happens.

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'm for giving Briteline a 3 year trial to see if they can at least break even where they operate currently, prior to any expansion.

Why expand a rail service if its losing Millions? Which is what you'll likely find 3 yrs from now, after you take out all the gov't financial support....like the no interest Bonds they got to build it.

Show me a 100% privately built and operated rail service in the USA, that is profitable...is there 1?

I guess a few things there:

1. They're not "interest free" bonds. They're tax free bonds. The same bonds that CFX uses to build new expressways. This has always been the case for new infrastructure projects. Not sure why it would be worthy of note in this case.

2. their earnings statement showed them doubling revenue last FY and that was before the Orlando segment opened. Since then they've had to expand the schedule twice and they still sell out and they still haven't made it to the motherlode of trips at I-Drive and Disney Springs. The only thing in the way of doubling ridership and then doubling it again are the single track segments they have along the Beachline.

3.The money to be made isn't really in moving people back and forth. It's in all the real estate they own. This is how railroads and streetcar companies have always worked.

4. They started construction the same time CAHSR did, began revenue service 6 years ago, opened their first extension and are in the design phase of their 2nd extension. It would be better for everyone to just pay Brightline to expand than whatever the heck the Feds are doing with Amtrak.

[Arcenal813]

Sunrail is going to extend their hours as well as provide service on weekends once the new line is in operation, and I cannot wait. Sunrail has been a godsend for me, and deciding to drive from Lake Mary to the office last week further cemented that thought. I-4 was fully stopped between Lake Mary and Longwood, and it took well over an hour of stressed out driving to get downtown. That was WITH use of the express lanes once I got passed Longwood. Yeah, I have no desire to drive unless I HAVE to.

I started using Brightline for back and forth trips to Miami and Forth Lauderdale. I used to fly. I don't think anything needs to be said here .

[drive carephilly]

A little bit of news on Tri-Rail running trains to Miami Central and then details on the Sunshine Corridor
https://www.railwayage.com/passenger...moves-forward/

Linked in that article is a storymap that takes you through the different phases
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...6acc6cc4a072cd

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

A little bit of news on Tri-Rail running trains to Miami Central and then details on the Sunshine Corridor
https://www.railwayage.com/passenger...moves-forward/

Linked in that article is a storymap that takes you through the different phases
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...6acc6cc4a072cd

Hmm... I'd have preferred for the Sunshine Corridor to run a bit further North, closer to Oak Ridge, and THEN turn south at I-4 from there. Seems like it would benefit locals more with direct access to Millenia and the Outlets, before catering to tourists with Sea World and the Convention Center, and the tourist trap hotels and whatnot.
At least we get service to and from the airport! Something that even lots of major cities with extensive transit lack.

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

Hmm... I'd have preferred for the Sunshine Corridor to run a bit further North, closer to Oak Ridge, and THEN turn south at I-4 from there. Seems like it would benefit locals more with direct access to Millenia and the Outlets, before catering to tourists with Sea World and the Convention Center, and the tourist trap hotels and whatnot.
At least we get service to and from the airport! Something that even lots of major cities with extensive transit lack.

There's no ROW up there. Even with the new route along 528, they're threading together freight spurs and highway ROW but they're still going to have to buy a bunch of land and build a bunch of flyovers which is why the cost for this route is twice the cost of the 417 alignment. Otherwise, yeah, the Sunrail trains will stop at a new station south of Sand Lake Road so people can transfer between lines, then there will be a station at the Convention Center, at Disney Springs, and there's potential for an infill station near the Outlets.

I think the biggest coup is 15 minute headways on both lines. That's world class transit anywhere. OTOH, I listened in the Orange County Commission meeting yesterday b/c they were debating the transportation tax again. Wilson and Demmings aren't on the same page but their heads are in the right place. The rest of that Board is a clown show.

[drive carephilly]

SunRail link to airport, theme parks would multiply riders and cost billions
$4 billion construction pricetag raises daunting question of who will pay to build and operate it

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024...cost-billions/

Kind of a silly question in the headline there since LYNX and Sunrail have already started the merger process. The article is saying $4 billion for the Sunshine Corridor which is broken out into two different parts:

1. Airport to Sunrail mainline - $400 million - which is expected to bring an additional 2.7 million riders in the first year
2. Sunrail mainline to Disney Springs via Convention Center - $3.6 billion - which is expected to bring an additional 2.3 million riders in the first year.

A few thoughts here:

1. The track from the airport to the Sunrail mainline already exists and it's owned by the City of Orlando. It's just a single track so it would need to be double tracked from the Brightline maintenance facility to the mainline which is about 3 miles. You'd also need new signaling which can be pricey but - unless they're building some big flyovers where the tracks cross S. Orange and Wetherbee Rd I don't understand how this gets to $400m. Maybe they plan to make Wetherbee flyover the tracks? That gets you closer to $400m but it still seems like a lot for ROW that's already owned by the City. Unless they plan to electrify the route from the airport to Disney Springs. That costs, for sure, because it's not just stringing the wire but you also need all of the electrical substations and the land for them.

2. $3.6 billion for the other +/- 13 miles out to Disney is either a ton of money for right-of-way acquisition, massive elevated sections/viaducts, electrification, or all of the above. The speeds that have been thrown around in press releases for Brightline to Tampa (+150 mph) lead me to believe that they intend for this section to be electric.

3. The ridership numbers seem comically low. MCO is the 2nd busiest airport in the US for origin/destination trips after LAX. The parking and traffic is a nightmare. If there was regular rail service, even just hourly, from Advent Health to the airport I would never drive to the airport again. Over 150,000 people per day make their to or from the airport, 90% of them are passengers (the other 10% employees) and of the passengers most of them are visitors in what is a very expensive rental car market. If they build the system out like intended and they offer 15 minute headways to the airport from AdventHealth and Kissimmee like they're saying and 15 minute service from the airport to Disney Springs - you're looking at closer to 100k pax per day within the first couple of years - the employment density of places like the airport, I-Drive, and Disney Springs is insane not to mention that they're also big attractions for locals too.