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When levels of taxation and cost of living outstrip intrinsic desirability, folks start heading for the doors. There's no place that this can't happen.
I understand this can happen and has happened in other cities however, many other factors drove some of these cities into their current situation.
What I see is varying slow, to moderate to high growth periods for growing sunbelt cities. I think when Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Florida cities, etc stop growing, then other sunbelt cities take heed. I just don't see it happening anytime soon.
The Triangle is a CSA of 2.3 million and Charlotte is a CSA of 3.3 million. CSA is the most relevant metric in NC because of the MSA split in the Triangle and Triad not reflecting how those regions work together. The Charlotte CSA is nowhere close to the Atlanta CSA of 7.1 million, which is roughly the same population as Charlotte CSA + Triad CSA + Triangle CSA COMBINED. Atlanta and Charlotte are not peers as Atlanta is a top 10 CSA and Charlotte is a top 20 CSA and there is a big cliff after the Miami CSA (drops from 7 million people in the Miami area to 5.3 million in the Detroit CSA).
Looking at +/- 500k people from each major CSA in NC, the closest "peer" CSAs are:
Charlotte at 3.3 million: Cleveland, Denver, Portland, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa
The Triangle at 2.3 million: Austin, Indianapolis, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Columbus, Nashville, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Virginia Beach, Jacksonville
The Triad at 1.7 million: Milwaukee, Virginia Beach, Jacksonville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Oklahoma City, Grand Rapids
If we defined a peer CSA +/- 1 million instead of 500k:
The Charlotte CSA would have Minneapolis as an upper range peer and the Triangle as a lower range peer.
The Triangle would have Charlotte as its upper range peer and Fresno, CA as its lower range peer.
The Triad would have San Antonio as its upper range peer and Syracuse as its lower range peer.
Re the comment by architect77 about Charlotte's skyline looking bigger than the city size... I think Charlotte has a great skyline, but I think our skyline looking impressive relative to size is largely due to the CSAs that are bigger than us having weak skylines. Some of the larger regions in the #11 - #18 spot include Phoenix, Orlando, Detroit, and Cleveland which don't have the hugest skylines due to their economies. Charlotte looks comparable to peers like Denver, Portland, and San Diego though.
The Atlanta CSA is, if not the biggest in land area, close to it. It's more than 2x the area of Charlotte's or RDU.
North Carolina has 61 zip codes with densities above 2,000 people per sq mile. Raleigh has 10 of those zip codes. Greensboro has 5 of them. Charlotte has 22 of them. When it comes to zip codes above 3,000 people per sq/mile, Greensboro has 4, Raleigh has 5, and Charlotte has 12. These stats make sense to anyone who has driven around Greensboro, Raleigh, and Charlotte.
Atlanta has 27 zip codes above 3,000 people per sq mile and Denver has 36. North Carolina cities have got some serious evolving left to do. Here in Charlotte, it's "crane city" when it comes to construction cranes swirling around. Apartment buildings are going up like I've never seen before here. The tallest is a 596 footer (apartment building of 45 floors) in Southend. Several others above 20 floors are either being planned or constructed.
A city the size of Charlotte should have at least 20 zip codes above 3,000 people per sq mile because that's the basement floor mark of most (if not all) of Charlotte's peers. In my opinion, THIS is why Charlotte is building like crazy. This city is desperately trying to catch up to it's peers. To some extent, Raleigh is trying to play catch-up as well....
I'd be careful using zip codes. The USPS doesn't use municipal boundaries and capacity of post offices, and zip codes, is based off capacity.
The Atlanta CSA is, if not the biggest in land area, close to it. It's more than 2x the area of Charlotte's or RDU.
Well I believe the feeling of each region- Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, will always remain roughly as small, medium and large.
Atlanta's huge CSA is about the size of central North Carolina which encompasses the Triange, Triad and Charlotte (Metrolina).
The mentality of metro Atlantans has always matched that of NY and LA.
Stringing along 6-7 million people along I-85 and the urban crescent of NC (formed by early railroad avoiding high elevation of Uwharrie Mountain range in center of state) sorta preserves more of a small town mentality, less so in Charlotte though.
NC is a great state to raise a family.
Atlanta in my opinion is the de-facto capital and true big city for the Southeast. It's great for singles or my kind -LGBT folks.
This entire thread is based on growth universally being a good thing. NC prioritizes increasing the tax base through luring industry and jobs. Could it become a victim of its own success?
And before the 1980s NC was still a populous state. Raleigh's population in 1970 was over 100,000 and that was within a much smaller city limits.
NC had 6.7 million residents in 1980. It remained the 10th largest state in population until Atlanta's meteoric growth pushed GA ahead in 2000. The 2 states have remained within 300,000 people of each other since 2000.
NC has grown enough. Now y'all go out and plant some new trees to preserve that beautiful green landscape backdrop.
Well I believe the feeling of each region- Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, will always remain roughly as small, medium and large.
Atlanta's huge CSA is about the size of central North Carolina which encompasses the Triange, Triad and Charlotte (Metrolina).
Atlanta in my opinion is the de-facto capital and true big city for the Southeast. It's great for singles or my kind -LGBT folks.
Atlanta is the defacto capital of the Southeast in the minds of Georgians. Atlanta is fine, it has a huge airport and unless you fly Delta and have to travel through Atlanta, I don't know anyone who wants to visit Atlanta.
The latest census estimates reveal that of the 15 largest cities in Georgia all but 3 lost population. None of North Carolina's 15 largest lost population. That's an interesting development. North Carolina's population growth is spread out among its cities from the mountains to the coast - not relegated to one bloated metro. That's cool for Georgia, but also kind of sad. Between 2020 and 2023, NC grew by 100,000 more than Georgia - I think because there are more population centers growing so fast - not just Raleigh and Charlotte, but Wilmington and Asheville.
And arguably, as a gay man, living in the Southeast, I'd rather live in North Carolina than Georgia. Durham, Chapel Hill, Asheville, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Cary - are all far and away at least as welcoming as any city I've lived in in New England (where I was born and raised) or the West Coast.
Atlanta may be important to Alabama and northern Florida but otherwise, not so much to any other Southeastern state, especially North Carolina.
Last edited by MackCyr1965; 05-18-2024 at 07:42 PM..
Wilmington fastest growing city and metro in NC. For the life of me, I don't understand why, it's such a bland, boring town. I'm taking every other Top 10 city over Wilmington with no second thought. But, it's growing like crazy, congrats I guess...
Atlanta is the defacto capital of the Southeast in the minds of Georgians. Atlanta is fine, it has a huge airport and unless you fly Delta and have to travel through Atlanta, I don't know anyone who wants to visit Atlanta.
The latest census estimates reveal that of the 15 largest cities in Georgia all but 3 lost population. None of North Carolina's 15 largest lost population. That's an interesting development. North Carolina's population growth is spread out among its cities from the mountains to the coast - not relegated to one bloated metro. That's cool for Georgia, but also kind of sad. Between 2020 and 2023, NC grew by 100,000 more than Georgia - I think because there are more population centers growing so fast - not just Raleigh and Charlotte, but Wilmington and Asheville.
And arguably, as a gay man, living in the Southeast, I'd rather live in North Carolina than Georgia. Durham, Chapel Hill, Asheville, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Cary - are all far and away at least as welcoming as any city I've lived in in New England (where I was born and raised) or the West Coast.
Atlanta may be important to Alabama and northern Florida but otherwise, not so much to any other Southeastern state, especially North Carolina.
Atlanta being the de facto capital of the Southeast doesn't mean that everybody in the Southeast has to go there on a regular basis for important stuff. It simply means that the city is the primary and largest regional hub on an industrial and institutional level, but that doesn't preclude the presence of smaller but sizable and growing secondary hubs that gain importance over time in their own right.
Wilmington fastest growing city and metro in NC. For the life of me, I don't understand why, it's such a bland, boring town. I'm taking every other Top 10 city over Wilmington with no second thought. But, it's growing like crazy, congrats I guess...
Out of Staters are moving in by the droves and finding low unemployment. The geography of the area has pushed the growth into Pender and Brunswick Co.
Two things are happening in Wilmington proper...
1) The City ramped up its QOL projects about 15 years ago and that effort is coming to fruition...multi-use trails, convention center, riverwalk, and now the Riverfront park and Amphitheater. Since the land mass is not that huge, these projects are very visible and well used.
2) The combination of the master planned community Riverlights as well as the targeted multi-family residential developments has created capacity within the city limits. Every major retail center has seen multi-family developments within its footprint. Specific midtown redevelopment has replaced severely underutilized parcels. Finally downtown riverfront multi-family was built seemingly overnight. These projects are in ideal locations, with a fairly quick absorption rate but are scattered all over the City making each area just a little bit better than it was.
Wilmington, in my opinion, is one of the best coastal towns/cities in the country. Here's why:
1) Nice beaches, nice ocean water quality (South of Wilmington and the Grand Strand until Florida, water gets a lot of sediment and sticks mixed in). Ocean is virtually pristine in NC comparatively.
2) Warm ocean temps for much of the year in the Cape Fear region. Compare that to the Pacific which is cold year round, and the Northeast which get warm for only a few months. And Florida, last year Miami ocean temps reached 100 degrees.
3) Wilmington has a year-round population, as opposed to beach towns Northward which are mostly deserted out of season.
4) You get a taste of all four seasons in Wilmington which an occasional snow event.
5) It's easy to enjoy boating activities with the Intracoastal Waterway.
6) The inland counties around Wilmington allow for home ownership at all price points.
I will say that I enjoy the longer stretches of public beaches on the Crystal Coast, but other than that, Wilmington has the beach life and the amenities of a decent size small city.
Florida is always hot without any waves, the Northeast is cold 8 months a year, the water is freezing cold West Coast, Wilmington is at a sweet spot for coastal towns.
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