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Saw online earlier that at a weather conference NHC showed looks like they'll be including inland watch/warnings instead of just highlighting coastal areas for Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch/Warnings now. They typ release a what's new type announcement each year when changes are made, we'll see if any other goodies are in there later when it comes out.
Joe Bastardi predicts a very active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024. That's based on the La Nina that will replace the now collapsing El Nino conditions in the Pacific. Where he draws the line is he just predicts a more active hurricane season and doesn't buy into hyping the monster storms global warming proponents do. He also pointed out that the Pacific typoon season was unusually inactive this time around like the previous three years. Warm waters do not a hurricane make, apparently.
I think 2007 and 2010 are the best analog years for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season. Both years had a warm Atlantic and a developing strong la nina.
Ya, NOAA earlier this month has weakening El Nino now, 79% chance of Neutral phase April-June, 55% chance of La Nina by June-Aug range. Just in time for peak of Atlantic season. https://www.climate.gov/enso
Some key new items include:
-AI generated Spanish translation of additional products for Atlantic & East Pacific (was humans at NWS Puerto Rico, if time allowed, and mainly Atlantic side)
-Rainfall forecast maps for Central America & Caribbean(was US only for rainfall graphics)
-Easier to issue US Watch/Warnings (matches international now in ability to issue during intermediate advisories instead of main updates at 5 & 11aEDT, although they may have done this previously many years ago??).
-Links to more info to be added in 'public advisory' text.
-Previously mentioned inland US Watch/Warnings to cone map(coming Aug2024, and regular cone map will still continue to be shown).
The WMO retired the 2023 names Dora (indirect impact on Hawaii wildfires) & Otis (Acapulco, Mexico) from the Eastern North Pacific name list today at the annual spring meeting. No 2023 Atlantic names were retired.
The WMO retired the 2023 names Dora (indirect impact on Hawaii wildfires) & Otis (Acapulco, Mexico) from the Eastern North Pacific name list today at the annual spring meeting. No 2023 Atlantic names were retired.
Not retiring any names after such an active season in the Atlantic, in a strong el nino no less, feels wrong. Idalia or Lee should have retired, if only for symbolism. Storms have been retired for less. People in the future (who weren't alive in 2023) will look at 2023 with no retired names and get the false impression that it wasn't an active season.
Summary of below: Hurricane Hunter Caribbean tour dates. Then starting to see annual spring hurricane predictions for the season coming out over next 2 months. Signs point to active (greater number of storms) season.
Hurricane Hunter plane tour / meet some of the staff of NHC, NOAA and USAF for Caribbean schedule (I have not seen US tour dates):
16Apr 9a-230p Nassau, Bahamas: Lynden Pindling International Airport
18Apr 9a-230p Barbados: Grantley Adams International Aiporta
19Apr 10a-1p St. Lucia: Hewanorra International Airport
20Apr 930a-330p Aguadilla, Puerto Rico: Rafael Hernández International Airport
Press Release: https://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/News/A...sion-to-mexic/
CSU released their 2024 hurricane numbers this week (numbers don't tell us if any hit or at what strength) but it does tell us signs point to an active season. They call for (Avg from 1991-2020 data) 23 named storms (Avg 14.4), 11 hurricanes (Avg 7.2), 5 Cat3+ hurricanes (Avg 3.2), ACE 210 (Avg 123), ACE West of 60deg Longitude 125 (Avg 73).
Due to:
-Warm above average waters nearly basin wide (every degree literally matters in Hurricane strength)
-El Nino fading towards La Nina conditions (less wind shear in Caribbean / Atlantic to help tear storms apart)
-CSU also calls for higher chance of more Westward reaching storms as compared to 2023 (most were out to sea 2023)
Even tho they're in Colorado, they seem to have the most detailed published reasoning behind their numbers compared to other groups I've seen. They incorporated historical data, science, multiple computer models, etc. Full report (pdf link 4mb): https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf
It should be noted CSU's own track record report shows their April forecast is typically the most inaccurate (I mean it is early April still!) but point still stands on signs point to active (above average number of storms) this season. Above avg season is the main point.
NHC(NOAA) releases it's seasonal forecast in late May, updates in August.
US Hurricane awareness tour dates announced (I don’t have times those days, but will be at each cities international airports):
May 6 - Portland, ME
May 7 - Albany, NY
May 8 - Norfolk, VA
May 9 - Charleston, SC
May 10 - Sanford, FL
24Apr24: NHC gives low 10% chance development to a little low as it runs into high wind shear, very dry air. Tiny nice spin on satellite but storms off on East side only - unhealthy system taking a stroll into a dust storm.
No worries with this one.
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