Starting the 2023 thread.
Early outlook: La Nina may fade to Neutral spring/summer or even El Nino by peak of season (but this is what was said last year too and we stayed La Nina). But it's overdue to switch per history. La Nina / Neutral tend to favor above avg seasons Atlantic, El Nino causes more wind shear Atlantic suppressing activity. While El Nino tends to cause above average seasons East/Central Pacific. Waters in Atlantic overall about 1 deg above avg, about +2deg US East coast and Gulf.
Below is just copy / paste of start of last years thread again, has season start dates, NHC info links, etc:
History and studies tells us if you prepare now you can experience less stress/anxiety, you'll know your boundaries on when to set your plan into motion, when to leave and where you'll go. Start today!
Season predictions from different groups generally start coming out in April.
Central Pacific (Hawaii) & Atlantic (Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean) season starts June 1 (Atlantic daily outlooks begin 15May).
East Pacific (West Mexico, Western Central America, US SW coast) season starts May 15.
Storms can form any month but majority form 'in season'.
Official storm stats/info (apps/websites take this info then put their own graphics on it):
Atlantic:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
E Pacific:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
C Pacific:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
2-Week NOAA tropical outlooks:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...link/ghazards/
5-day NHC Tropical outlook:
Atlantic:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
E Pacific:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
C Pacific:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
Official Storm Surge maps for general planning purposes (specific named hurricane storm surge maps come with storm stats links above once watches/warnings issued, considered accurate at neighborhood level zoom):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
Tidbits:
-Storms can form any month of the year but majority form in their 'season'.
-Cyclone threats include: wind, storm surge flood (think higher high tide near coast / water ways that connect to the coast/bays) (most deadly part), rain flood (2nd most deadly part), tornadoes, downed tree and power lines, etc.
-Hurricanes, cyclones & typhoons are exactly the same thing, just different names for areas of the world.
-El Nino years tend to suppress Atlantic storms.
-Flood insurance typically has a 30-day wait period, so you can't wait for storm to get near.
-Many shelters and hotels DON'T take pets!! Have a list of accepting places NOW so you're ready to go later! Mandatory evacuations typically DON'T change these policies.
-Have a list of hotels you would evacuate to, as these fill up quickly by people reserving rooms just in case ahead of evacuation times/announcements. Beat them to it.
-Storm surge starts rising hours before storm arrives, sometimes cutting off escape routes hours early.
-Yes, PTSD is a real thing after storms.
-For parents your actions can directly affect the outcome for your children, not just physically but also mentally & emotionally before, during and after.
-Stores tend to close early while weather is still nice as they must secure their stock and send employees home in time to prepare.
-Run on supplies is common. Prepare now by just adding one soup can or extra water bottle to normal shopping each week or so...start now and that adds up by start of hurricane season!
-Hurricanes are one of the only natural disasters you have days or more to see coming.
-Know when you would leave...is it a higher end of Tropical Storm? Or a Cat1 hurricane? Or only when told to? If so, then stick with your plan and go when it's time. Don't sit and fret and wonder if it'll change and get caught off guard stuck at home...it happens! Just make the call and go with it and if the storm misses then be thankful, heck make a vacation to somewhere else out of it.
-Have backups of hard drives (all those digital family photos or important documents), portable USB battery power supplies, fridge/freezer thermometers that also show highest temp reached, cash (ATM, credit cards don't work with no power), manual can opener, etc.
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