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Sun 8aEDT 18June:
Atlantic:
-92L, while has a general elongated broad spin, still only has a few scattered showers associated with it. Dry air out in front but doesn't look like that's getting tangled in at the moment. Models still split on stronger fish re-curving storm, others weak or dissipate it across the Northern Caribbean. It's on other side of the Atlantic still, plenty of time to watch. NHC with 80% and 90% chance development next 2 & 7 days respectively.
-Next tropical wave coming off Africa looks robust (but these can for first day before fading some). Starting to get some model support, time will tell. NHC not following at the moment.
EPac: Area well S of Mexico 20% chance next few days of development.
Mon 9aEDT:
-92L looking more classic this AM, wouldn’t be surprised to see advisories (either as a TD, TS or PTC) issued soon. Dry air in front at the lower levels but it’s keeping it at bay for now. Models look to have trended more towards Caribbean direction.
-wave behind it showing more model support for future development as well.
Mon 19June 11aEDT TD3 (Tropical Depression 3). 35mph winds. NHC basically says has 3 days to strengthen and uncertainty is high for track and intensity for later this week. NHC currently going with Hurricane tracking into Caribbean, possibly near Puerto Rico early Saturday.
So strengthens thru Thursday, effects should just be reaching the Lesser Antilles (Eastern Caribbean islands sometime Thursday, then depending on storm location and where wind shear location is, then wind shear becomes a factor potentially starting to weaken system late week into the weekend. A stronger Hurricane is likely to curve more NW / N by weeks end around the High pressure clock wise flow in Atlantic, TS or towards low end Cat1 likely to head more into Caribbean.
Past that, too many unknowns for a system just starting to develop this far out in time.
Update, adding: currently it’s more likely to head into Caribbean and then weaken. Time will tell what happens.
Tues 20Jun 8aEDT:
Atlantic:
-93L behind Bret NHC with 80% chance development. Models favor gradual strengthening but most turn up just before the Caribbean.
EPac:
-Area along S Mexico coast may start to develop this weekend/next week. NHC with 20% chance.
Tues 20Jun 8pEDT:
Atlantic: 93L lacked scattered showers most of the day, starting the evening re-firing. NHC 80% devel. chance.
EPac: Area just S of Mexico NHC now with 30% devel. chance.
Wed 21Jun 8pEDT:
Atlantic: -93L improving, high chance TD/TS within the next day or so. Models still curve up near NE Caribbean generally towards Bermuda.
EPac: Area likely to form along S Mexico coast towards Monday, may ride parallel up and just off the coast and out to sea. Another may form behind it.
Thurs 5aEDT: 93L becomes TD4. NHC going with intensifying Storm into the weekend, then wind shear begins to weekend as passes just NE of Caribbean early next week.
93L becomes TS Cindy in the Atlantic Thursday evening.
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