2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

The thread was started was based on the CSU forecast which looks at the entire Atlantic Basin. Doesnt matter that this is the Houston forum because that is what the thread is in reference to.

Thats ridiculous, it was posted in the Houston forum because Hurricanes are relevant to the Houston area. I suppose somebody may post references to the CSU forecast in the Kansas City forum however I doubt it will have the same relevance in that forum.

If this were only topical to the CSU forecast then the science or weather forums would be a better place to discuss it but only the OP knows for sure.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

I do share your concern however there are a couple of reasons not to be so fatalistic. One a category 5 hurricane has never hit the Texas coast. Two this storm surge that you fear of causing a major environmental disaster would have to hit at a precise angle to cause the catastrophe you speak of. That said it is possible,but Galveston will survive simply because it is a weekend getaway for people from Houston and as long as people in Houston still want to take day trips to Galveston there will always be a Galveston.

But will it be a "city" or just a collection of vacation rentals and 2nd homes? (I know, the place is already fighting that battle.)

Also, it doesn't necessarily take a cat 5 to have a monster storm surge. Ike was just a weak-to-middling cat 3, but it was a physically large storm, and its surge took out much of Bolivar (admittedly, no seawall or levee there). I wonder how it would have been if the eye was just a little further west.

Alicia pretty much hit in the worst spot (central to west end of Galveston Island) but fortunately was also a cat 3 and small enough not to have a bad surge. It still caused mayhem, if you were around then.

The point is, the worst case landfall location has happened in my lifetime, and assuming that the odds are too long to be concerned about a storm with an existentially large storm surge on Galveston Island and in the Bay is probably not wise. Note that Galveston had two cat 4 storms in 15 years, the first of which basically destroyed the city and killed 8,000+. And rebuilding then was more straightforward than today, even if they had to build the seawall and raise everything (which saved them in 1915).

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

But will it be a "city" or just a collection of vacation rentals and 2nd homes? (I know, the place is already fighting that battle.)

Also, it doesn't necessarily take a cat 5 to have a monster storm surge. Ike was just a weak-to-middling cat 3, but it was a physically large storm, and its surge took out much of Bolivar (admittedly, no seawall or levee there). I wonder how it would have been if the eye was just a little further west.

Alicia pretty much hit in the worst spot (central to west end of Galveston Island) but fortunately was also a cat 3 and small enough not to have a bad surge. It still caused mayhem, if you were around then.

The point is, the worst case landfall location has happened in my lifetime, and assuming that the odds are too long to be concerned about a storm with an existentially large storm surge on Galveston Island and in the Bay is probably not wise. Note that Galveston had two cat 4 storms in 15 years, the first of which basically destroyed the city and killed 8,000+. And rebuilding then was more straightforward than today, even if they had to build the seawall and raise everything (which saved them in 1915).

You just might be the most pessimistic person I’ve ever came across lol

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

You just might be the most pessimistic person I’ve ever came across lol

Well, on this issue, kind of yeah. But I've gone through 3 major hurricanes in my life here, one of which was nearly a cat 5 when it hit the coast (Harvey) and basically spun up in 48 hours. Then the Otis thing in Acapulco last year was really horrifying. And all the news about rising sea level and super-warm Gulf waters...let's just say the signs haven't pointed toward optimism.

I also read an NBC news article recently on Cameron, and the town is almost gone, due to repeated storms, starting with Rita...after not having any hits in decades prior.