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You believe the odds of Kennedy/Stein being a factor come Nov are slim and none. O.k.
Both parties will bombard all potential voters telling them to not waste their votes on RFK Jr or Stein. That is what they do every election cycle telling people not to vote 3rd party and its very effective.
Just looking at history and assuming history will repeat. Gary Johnson was polling at 11% in April 2016 ended up with 3.3%. Jill Stein ended up with 1.1%. Yes Stein did better in some of the swing states. In 2020 Libertarians got 1.2% and the green party got .3%. You have the same Trump / Biden. Why would the 3rd party candidates do better than last time? What does RFK Jr offer anyone when he has a zero chance of winning the election?
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Originally Posted by john3232
Let me ask you this: There are voters in the swing states particularly WI and MI who recently sent a message to the WH - they aren’t happy with what’s going on in Gaza.
It seems this voting bloc might prefer Biden lose in order to show how disruptive they can be in the all-important swing states.
Now, I don’t want to get into a debate regarding the conflict. Just their strategic approach come Nov.
Yes, a Trump return to the WH won’t help their cause. However, they might feel only a kamikaze vote bloc will force the Dem leadership to make a clear choice: them or Israel.
Thoughts?
.
I agree MI is a big problem for Biden. He is pivoting back away from full support of Israel as we speak. You know his campaign is busy in that community trying to get them back on board by whatever it takes. Reality like you said is Trump offers nothing to the muslims mad at Biden. We will see how it plays out.
But like I have said its easy to tell a pollster you are not voting for so and so. No harm done in doing so. You can do a protest "vote" that way. But with the chips on the table and a likely close race people tend to cut and run and go back to their party. Its one of the frustrating things about being a Libertarian. 7 months out your candidate is polling much better than they will end up getting in November.
This has already been discussed in another thread that's in elections.
N.L. is kaput. They apparently approached over 30 candidates to run, and no one wanted any part of their organization or whatever it is.
They didn’t say no, because they didn’t like no labels. The ones that said, no, specifically people like Joe Manchin, and Larry Hogan, who they spoke with for many months about a possible ticket, said they weren’t going to do it because they felt that they would be electing Trump if they ran as third party candidates. They didn’t see enough of a path to victory and didn’t want to be spoilers. They would have said no, regardless of the name of the organization. But both of them considered it for quite a long time.
Your post makes it sound like the candidates all said no outright as soon as they were approached by no labels, but that is not accurate.
Your post makes it sound like the candidates all said no outright as soon as they were approached by no labels, but that is not accurate.
That's your interpretation and assumption, but I never put a timeline on any of the 30+ candidates who were approached or the path any of them went through before giving an answer.
Both parties will bombard all potential voters telling them to not waste their votes on RFK Jr or Stein. That is what they do every election cycle telling people not to vote 3rd party and its very effective.
Just looking at history and assuming history will repeat. Gary Johnson was polling at 11% in April 2016 ended up with 3.3%. Jill Stein ended up with 1.1%. Yes Stein did better in some of the swing states. In 2020 Libertarians got 1.2% and the green party got .3%. You have the same Trump / Biden. Why would the 3rd party candidates do better than last time? What does RFK Jr offer anyone when he has a zero chance of winning the election?
I agree MI is a big problem for Biden. He is pivoting back away from full support of Israel as we speak. You know his campaign is busy in that community trying to get them back on board by whatever it takes. Reality like you said is Trump offers nothing to the muslims mad at Biden. We will see how it plays out.
But like I have said its easy to tell a pollster you are not voting for so and so. No harm done in doing so. ]You can do a protest "vote" that way. But with the chips on the table and a likely close race people tend to cut and run and go back to their party. [/b]Its one of the frustrating things about being a Libertarian. 7 months out your candidate is polling much better than they will end up getting in November.
As is WI. This voting bloc is smart. They understand they can swing the election. Promises and lip service won't work. They want the Dem leadership to take a clear stand in support of their cause. And will be more than happy to see Biden lose to prove they mean business.
Both parties will bombard all potential voters telling them to not waste their votes on RFK Jr or Stein. That is what they do every election cycle telling people not to vote 3rd party and its very effective.
Just looking at history and assuming history will repeat. Gary Johnson was polling at 11% in April 2016 ended up with 3.3%. Jill Stein ended up with 1.1%. Yes Stein did better in some of the swing states. In 2020 Libertarians got 1.2% and the green party got .3%. You have the same Trump / Biden. Why would the 3rd party candidates do better than last time? What does RFK Jr offer anyone when he has a zero chance of winning the election?
I agree MI is a big problem for Biden. He is pivoting back away from full support of Israel as we speak. You know his campaign is busy in that community trying to get them back on board by whatever it takes. Reality like you said is Trump offers nothing to the muslims mad at Biden. We will see how it plays out.
But like I have said its easy to tell a pollster you are not voting for so and so. No harm done in doing so. You can do a protest "vote" that way. But with the chips on the table and a likely close race people tend to cut and run and go back to their party. Its one of the frustrating things about being a Libertarian. 7 months out your candidate is polling much better than they will end up getting in November.
No one expects he'll win, including himself. The point is to offer voters unhappy with Biden/Trump an alternative and hopefully fuel future interest in 3rd parties.
Now...the Kennedy name recognition alone is worth 2%. Toss in another 2% because he'll have the funds to campaign. Then toss in 1%-1.5% for Stien and you can understand why the Dems are upset and worried.
The Trump camp? They aren't too concerned because the more 3rd party candidates on the ballot the better chance Trump has of winning.
As is WI. This voting bloc is smart. They understand they can swing the election. Promises and lip service won't work. They want the Dem leadership to take a clear stand in support of their cause. And will be more than happy to see Biden lose to prove they mean business.
You are just making stuff up on the fly because you want this to happen. That is the thing. You are partisan. You hope the muslims do that. Even if it makes zero logical sense.
I have no skin in the game for the democon, republicrat party. So if the muslims simply let Trump win they lose big time. Biden has proven a person willing to sell himself out to whoever he needs to for votes. He did that in 2020 agreeing to pass all the far left agenda in order to get their backing. So whatever the muslims want. He will agree to do it in his 2nd term. He does not have to worry about future elections and simply do their bidding. You are saying they will not accept that and just try to teach dems some sort of lesson hoping to get some future concessions down the road? Which if Trump wins is at least 4 years away and perhaps much longer? And you are saying that is a smart yet hoping they do something very dumb.
No one expects he'll win, including himself. The point is to offer voters unhappy with Biden/Trump an alternative and hopefully fuel future interest in 3rd parties.
Now...the Kennedy name recognition alone is worth 2%. Toss in another 2% because he'll have the funds to campaign. Then toss in 1%-1.5% for Stien and you can understand why the Dems are upset and worried.
The Trump camp? They aren't too concerned because the more 3rd party candidates on the ballot the better chance Trump has of winning.
You are just making up numbers. The dems understand that in 2016 their protest vote got Trump elected. In 2020 that protest vote disappeared. Now you are saying that protest vote will be back based on your hopes it will come back even though history says something very different. All Biden has to do behind the scenes is offer RFK Jr. some sort of position in his administration or a judgeship and he will drop out. And that is assuming RFK Jr. does better closer to the election than history would indicate.
And who is the hard core RFK Jr. voter? Democrats who are single issue anti-vaxx voters? I like him simply because he is not Trump or Biden. And I think he is an honest straight shooter. Something neither Biden or Trump are. But if I was in a swing state and a member of one of the the two headed D R party I would understand voting for him makes the other party more likely to win. You seem to think people are clueless on that fact. They are not.
...At least 100,000 Democrats in the Great Lakes State voted for “uncommitted,” a protest vote driven in large part by dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Multiple groups had urged voters to reject Biden due to his support for Israel in the conflict, and the “uncommitted” vote was particularly high in heavily Arab American and Muslim cities such as Dearborn (where “uncommitted” actually defeated Biden 56 percent to 40 percent). https://abcnews.go.com/538/arab-amer...y?id=107634583
And.
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On Tuesday more than 48,000 people defied cold, rainy weather to register protest votes in the Wisconsin Democratic primary against the Biden administration’s unrelenting support for Israel’s war on Gaza.
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Wisconsin by an excruciatingly narrow margin of victory of about 21,000 votes. As of Wednesday afternoon, Wisconsin’s “uninstructed” vote tally – the equivalent of the “uncommitted” campaign that Arab Americans launched in Michigan – was 48,093 votes, more than twice Biden’s 2020 win margin.
The protest vote in Wisconsin has made clear that this campaign is bigger than Biden. The many people calling for a ceasefire aren’t merely swing voters or bitter castoffs who have long left the party. Many involved in the uncommitted campaigns have, until now, been committed Democrats. But they fear a critical mass of voters may permanently leave the Democratic party if Biden and other leaders don’t implement a ceasefire in Gaza, and quickly. For some voters, even that may be too little, too late. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-stop-gaza-war
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You hope the muslims do that.
I want Biden to lose... so yes.
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I have no skin in the game for the democon, republicrat party. So if the muslims simply let Trump win they lose big time. Biden has proven a person willing to sell himself out to whoever he needs to for votes. He did that in 2020 agreeing to pass all the far left agenda in order to get their backing. So whatever the muslims want. He will agree to do it in his 2nd term. He does not have to worry about future elections and simply do their bidding. You are saying they will not accept that and just try to teach dems some sort of lesson hoping to get some future concessions down the road? Which if Trump wins is at least 4 years away and perhaps much longer? And you are saying that is a smart yet hoping they do something very dumb.
Yet, I don't think that will work. Not with this voting bloc. If the Biden/Dem leadership plan to openly support their cause they'll need to do so before November. Which I suspect they won't.
As far as Trump winning. Some see it as it as the only way to force the Dem leadership to understand they mean business.
...I had put the same question to Dawud Walid, the executive director of CAIR’s Michigan chapter, who said that for most Muslims, anything short of Biden “resurrecting 29,000 dead Palestinians like Jesus” would mean that they will never vote for him again.
Of course, working to defeat Biden also means aiding the return of Donald Trump, but Awad and Walid seem to have made their peace with that.
Awad said he doesn’t like Trump and doesn’t welcome a second Trump term, but he’s prepared to accept that outcome for the sake of punishing Biden. “I’m going to live under Trump, because I survived under Trump, because he’s my enemy,” he says. “I cannot live under someone who pretends to be my friend.”
He believes that proving a point about the power of the Muslim vote is worth it. “Is it going to be painful? Four more years under Trump?” he asks. “I say yes, and we are bracing for it,” adding, “At least what I have accomplished is, I told every politician, ‘Don’t take us out of the equation, because you will miss.’” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/28/o...iden-gaza.html
You are just making up numbers. The dems understand that in 2016 their protest vote got Trump elected. In 2020 that protest vote disappeared. Now you are saying that protest vote will be back based on your hopes it will come back even though history says something very different. All Biden has to do behind the scenes is offer RFK Jr. some sort of position in his administration or a judgeship and he will drop out. And that is assuming RFK Jr. does better closer to the election than history would indicate.
And who is the hard core RFK Jr. voter? Democrats who are single issue anti-vaxx voters? I like him simply because he is not Trump or Biden. And I think he is an honest straight shooter. Something neither Biden or Trump are. But if I was in a swing state and a member of one of the the two headed D R party I would understand voting for him makes the other party more likely to win. You seem to think people are clueless on that fact. They are not.
I might be tossing out numbers but you can bet the Dem leadership isn't. They understand the Kennedy threat is very real in the battleground states which is why we see such anger.
Quote:
In a Democratic National Committee press call on Tuesday night, several party surrogates called Kennedy's presidential bid "disgusting" and a ploy to reelect Trump.
"All he can do is take away votes from President Biden and make it easier for Donald Trump to win. And we simply can't afford to let that happen," said Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis.
Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow said the Kennedy ticket is "disgusting and an abuse of our democracy."
"There is absolutely no path for Kennedy to become president and he knows that," McMurrow said. "That is why he picked a VP who can fund -- who can buy his way onto the ballot in a number of state," McMurrow said. "First of all, that's disgusting and an abuse of our democracy. Second, that means that him being in the race means that there is a greater likelihood that Donald Trump will become president again." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/demo...y?id=108543625
In this opinion piece, the author makes the point that No Labels should not be trying to recruit a candidate who is a bland, career politician, such as Joe Manchin or Chris Christie, but rather that they need to find someone with cultural appeal that breaks the mold, such as Volodymir Zelensky of Ukraine was.
Why would a major celebrityd who appeals to many Americans (such as Denzel Washington) what to run for president?
They don't need adoration or the aggravation. Oprah might but not too many others.
Best bet for “No Labels” in 2028 - Kyrsten Sinema
Last edited by john3232; 04-06-2024 at 12:11 PM..
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