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The polls in 2016 and 2020 understated Trump by 4 points on average. In all probability that's about how much they're understated at present. Most polls tend to end up closer than they were at this stage because they know they're biased toward the Democrat and they clean it up a bit at the end to not be as bad off.
That doesn't make any sense. "Clean it up at the end"? You mean, near election day, when the electorate has actually decided who they're going to vote for?
Of course the polls jump around until then - not everyone knows who they want to vote for months out of the election. Many wait until after the debates and any October surprises.
You are being dishonest again. Trump never push for a nationwide abortion ban bill. He never even mention it and it doesn't have the votes in Congress to make it a federal law. You know Democrats are in trouble when they start lying and clinging to the abortion made up crisis.
Trump's polls have been under reported from 2016 to election day. So when Trump now is ahead of Joe, it only shows how unpopular Joe is and how much he is in trouble and none of your wishful thinking will change that.
Now you mentioned that Republicans "underperformed" post 2020 and ignore the fact that Democrats also have "underperformed". Democrats lost 13 seats in the house in 2020 and 9 seats in 2022. So in 2 years, the Democrats lost 22 seats in Congress and can't hold Congress pass 4 years. Joe's average lead in 2020 was 7+ and he barely won 25 states and 4 of those states by less than 1% that decided the election. Today he is -2 and your wishful thinking is that he will close that margin in 8 months based on what? He is not a great speaker or campaigner and there isn't a great piece of legislation under his name that can bail him out in November. So explain how Joe is going close that significant gap from 2020 in which he barely won. He can't offer the most freebies to a vulnerable electorate since We are not in lock down anymore like in 2020, so how is Joe going to close the gap?
A poll in March for a November election is pretty meaningless. All that really matters is the results in 5 or 6 swing states. I don’t think anyone can predict those now.
Those people in those swing states don't like $95 car fillups and $12 McDonalds meals, are afraid of all the rampant crime everywhere, and don't like seeing god only knows how many millions of illegals just walk right in. Food and gas aren't getting any cheaper, worse it seems.
I live in a very safe area even and I'm almost always armed. It's bad out there.
Whatever he is, he is spreading the Democrat lie about abortions. Trump never even mention a federal ban on abortions. The main issue is that We have an unpopular President with Jimmy Carter's numbers. Every sitting President for re-election needs to be @50+ or close. He is @39. He barely won in 2020 with 25 states and 4 of those by less than 1% that decided the EC and he was a 50+ approval. He is -16 from 2020. He is not a good campaigner or speaker. So how is he going to make up that huge deficit from 2020. He is losing on all the top issues for the general.
Without mentioning Trump, Democrats doesn't have any valid reason to re-elect Joe and Kamala has worse numbers. They know a vote for Joe is a vote for Kamala because Joe isn't finishing a 2nd term. It would be a circus since Joe's 2nd term would be a disaster while trying to push Kamala for 2028.
I agree with you that Trump is more likely to win, but it's pretty hilarious watching the same people that predicted Trump would easily defeat Biden in 2020 and a red wave in 2022 now confidently declaring Trump's re-election as a foregone conclusion. They never learn.
This is going to be close either way. My map has Trump winning 283-255, but a lot can change.
Who? If 2020 was a normal year, Trump wins re-election. The pandemic and nation shut down threw a wrench never seen before since the Spanish Flu and nobody here was alive back then.
When you make millions of Americans vulnerable and dependent on the government during a shutdown it throws everything out the window and Biden, Pelosi and the Democrats exploited that with offering the most freebies and fear. Biden barely won but that isn't working for 2024. Pelosi is gone in the house, No shutdown and No freebies. Joe has to run on his record which is garbage.
I got Trump winning 30 states. AZ, GA, NV and he is taking 2 out of MI,WI, PA. If he takes PA, it's over early but I say he takes 2 out of those 3. He is up by double digits in Ohio, so that makes that whole area bad for Joe.
Joe will be lucky to win 20 states. Without mentioning Trump, what could change for Joe? Not a good speaker, not a good campaigner and there is not a piece of big legislation of freebies that can buy him votes. So what of "a lot could change" you are wishing for?
Who? If 2020 was a normal year, Trump wins re-election. The pandemic and nation shut down threw a wrench never seen before since the Spanish Flu and nobody here was alive back then.
When you make millions of Americans vulnerable and dependent on the government during a shutdown it throws everything out the window and Biden, Pelosi and the Democrats exploited that with offering the most freebies and fear. Biden barely won but that isn't working for 2024. Pelosi is gone in the house, No shutdown and No freebies. Joe has to run on his record which is garbage.
I got Trump winning 30 states. AZ, GA, NV and he is taking 2 out of MI,WI, PA. If he takes PA, it's over early but I say he takes 2 out of those 3. He is up by double digits in Ohio, so that makes that whole area bad for Joe.
Joe will be lucky to win 20 states. Without mentioning Trump, what could change for Joe? Not a good speaker, not a good campaigner and there is not a piece of big legislation of freebies that can buy him votes. So what of "a lot could change" you are wishing for?
Yeah, COVID literally disrupted order in the universe. If it wasn't for that, the Tokyo Olympics would have been held on time, the Batman would have been released on time, and as I mentioned in another thread that Trump would have been re-elected and it would have been a lot more like reliving the 2004-2008 period when W Bush was re-elected.
As I mentioned in other threads, I think Trump will win GA and MI for sure. Not so sure about PA, WI, AZ, and NV but Biden will have to win all four of those. Ohio is already a given for Trump.
Bottom line is that every single person that supports Trump must go and vote, as this may help offset all the ballots that will be found at the last minute or when the tallying of votes is delayed due to looking for boxes of ballots that were mysteriously overlooked prior to it looking like Trump was going to be the winner.
Polls don't mean anything, trust nothing that you hear. Vote before you end up losing the right to do so, and it is coming unless changes are make.
Who cares what 715 people think, as they won't decide the election. Plus, I have watched these polling entities changing their minds the day before the elections, heck, like the weather man who says it will be sunny, and I look out and it is rainy. I go back and look at the forecast, and there it is 100% chance of rain on what was supposed to be a sunny day an hour ago.
Trust no one for best results. Realize that the media will do everything they can to manipulate the election, including bogus polls. Sadly, Biden is so pathetic, yeah, who would vote for him, but still, many people are equally pathetic enough to sadly vote for him, and of course, dead people, what do they care?
Last edited by AnywhereElse; 03-29-2024 at 01:59 PM..
Status:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMESMH
OB isn't a Democrat.
He's a Libertarian.
He calls himself a Libertarian - his posts from the get go are very left leaning and always have been. What you affiliate as is not necessarily what you are.
You are being dishonest again. Trump never push for a nationwide abortion ban bill. He never even mention it and it doesn't have the votes in Congress to make it a federal law. You know Democrats are in trouble when they start lying and clinging to the abortion made up crisis.
I am not a democrat but I have been called worse by better people. I see how this goes Trump puts out a trial balloon on abortion and when it goes badly he claims he never said anything. Like below Trump is all over the map.
The former Republican president, whose three conservative appointees to the U.S. Supreme Court secured the majority needed to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, has not been specific on whether he would sign a national ban into law. In a call-in radio interview on Tuesday, he came close. "The number of weeks now, people are agreeing on 15. And I'm thinking in terms of that. And it’ll come out to something that’s very reasonable. But people are really, even hard-liners are agreeing, seems to be, 15 weeks seems to be a number that people are agreeing at," Trump said on the "Sid & Friends in the Morning" show on WABC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar
Trump's polls have been under reported from 2016 to election day. So when Trump now is ahead of Joe, it only shows how unpopular Joe is and how much he is in trouble and none of your wishful thinking will change that.
So 4 years ago and 8 years ago he did better than polling. It might happen again or it might not. Like I said this is the first time Trump has been ahead in polling. So its a new dynamic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar
Now you mentioned that Republicans "underperformed" post 2020 and ignore the fact that Democrats also have "underperformed". Democrats lost 13 seats in the house in 2020 and 9 seats in 2022. So in 2 years, the Democrats lost 22 seats in Congress and can't hold Congress pass 4 years. Joe's average lead in 2020 was 7+ and he barely won 25 states and 4 of those states by less than 1% that decided the election. Today he is -2 and your wishful thinking is that he will close that margin in 8 months based on what? He is not a great speaker or campaigner and there isn't a great piece of legislation under his name that can bail him out in November. So explain how Joe is going close that significant gap from 2020 in which he barely won. He can't offer the most freebies to a vulnerable electorate since We are not in lock down anymore like in 2020, so how is Joe going to close the gap?
I don't know what Biden will do. I am voting Libertarian or possibly RFK Jr. I don't want Biden to win. No way I would ever vote for a Dem or for Trump. But here is a little bit on GOP underperformance. Predicted 30-35 seat gain in the house. Reality. +9. Predicted 1 or 2 seat majority in the senate. Reality dems held on to the senate.
No different than 2020, but look how real voting went: Chump lost both the popular and electoral.
Election Day shall be a fun deja vu. Until then, keep dreaming and having fun in your fantasy bubble.
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