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Do you have a source to back up that number? It should be easy to reference, you'll need to find the polls that Trump down by about 7 points to the the final outcome. To give you statement any merit it would have to be most polls that have that much of a difference.
The polls in 2016 and 2020 understated Trump by 4 points on average. In all probability that's about how much they're understated at present. Most polls tend to end up closer than they were at this stage because they know they're biased toward the Democrat and they clean it up a bit at the end to not be as bad off.
Trump supporters believe the polls when Trump looks good in them and don't believe them at all when he does poorly. So yes I get that you don't currently believe the polls.
Trump supporters believe the polls when Trump looks good in them and don't believe them at all when he does poorly. So yes I get that you don't currently believe the polls.
Can you tell us what battleground state polls Joe is looking good. 2 person race or 5, We don't see what you are seeing.
Biden was up in most polls for months in 2020 - making the claim that the election was “stolen” even stupider. Clinton was up +6 on average over Trump until the last two weeks during which nearly every late decider broke for Trump. That makes perfect sense because at that time there were a lot of Republicans who still cared about character in the party. But at the end of the day, they did what most do and went home - which is what Biden voters (youth, minorities, progressives) will probably do too. Just keep hammering home …. you may think of Joe as the flu but the other guy is cancer. It’s not over until the fat lady sings, but Biden has every reason to be plenty optimistic at this point - especially with current momentum going his way.
I do think the fact that Biden was so far up in the polls in 2020 and Trump was understated again by about 4 points again supports the notion that the election wasn't stolen, at least I don't believe it was. The level of cheating that may have occurred doesn't make up the difference in my opinion which is why I've argued with friends and relatives that the 2020 election wasn't stolen.
My take away is that Trump will likely be understated by about 4 points in the polls again. When you consider his lead, his understated support and the EC advantage he has, the election is pretty much over and he's likely to landslide Biden this time.
Is there a reason not to believe them. Even though there are many polls that aren't showing a result I want, I have never doubted that they are true snapshot of when they were conducted.
The difference is that for Biden supporters, they see it as an roadmap of what needs to be worked on and are demanding that changes are made to improve support.
Trump supporters look at these polls as a done deal and proof that their candidate will win, no changes needed to the campaign.
What I don't get is take that what happened in 2016 and 2020 will repeat exactly the same. Those two times Trump was behind in the polls close to double digits at times. The race tightened at the end. Which is often what happens in elections. This time Trump is ahead. As much as 5 a couple months ago. So why would the opposite happen and the leaders numbers get better instead of worse like they did before? Add to it the fact the GOP has underperformed up to 10% in the post 2020 races (mid terms and special elections) which seems to be related to R v W being over turned. Something that was not on the table in 2016 and 2020. And Trump's solution to this is a nationwide abortion ban bill.
Excellent post. I think it’s pretty close to a dead heat but I would give the edge to Biden precisely because of the campaign’s different postures. Biden is sitting on a huge war chest. The RNC and even Trump himself are struggling to get donors. Biden is spending 100 percent is his campaign money on ads, organizing a ground game, voter registration, etc. I don’t know the percentage but it’s probably more than fair to assume Trump is spending over 60 percent of donations on lawyers. It’s probably higher.
Money isn’t everything in modern politics. Ok. Trump is telling Halley Republicans, they’re not wanted and get out of his party. That’s a very arrogant, I guess on brand though, stance to take. Those voters are Trump’s most likely persuadables- people leaning Republican but who have serious concerns with him. He should be trying to reassure them, not push them away.
If Biden wasn’t having trouble with his base - progressives, younger voters, and minorities - this wouldn’t even be close. It would be a Biden blowout. So Biden has some work to do. Can he win these people back? Probably can win back a lot of them. Wouldn’t take much. They hate Trump and want to be on the team at the end of the day.
This election is far from over. Both candidates have good chances. We all know no matter what MAGA will say the election was stolen if they lose so I guess it makes sense for them to start early and proclaim Trump the winner now. That’s the conclusion they are going to reach no matter what the facts and evidence show.
He's too insecure to do that.
He's still butt hurt that they didn't pick him in the first place.
Democrats may get bitten by a tactic they use to great effect in GOP primaries.
...Recent elections have come down to a handful of voters in key states. Mr. Biden in 2020 eked out his Electoral College victory by 10,000 votes in Arizona, 12,000 in Georgia and 21,000 in Wisconsin. What Republicans surely understand is that they don’t necessarily need those Biden voters suddenly to pledge fealty to Mr. Trump. They simply need them not to vote for Mr. Biden a second time. It helps to flag some palatable alternatives.
Mr. Trump has already cottoned on to the potential, aided this week by Mr. Kennedy’s choice of a solidly progressive running mate. “RFK Jr. is the most Radical Left Candidate in the race, by far,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, is even more ‘Liberal’ than him, if that’s possible. . . . He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine. I love that he is running!” No doubt. Message to conservative voters: This guy is toxic and unacceptable. Message to progressive voters: Hate Biden? Feast your eyes!
The Trump comments will add to Democratic paranoia, already in evidence in their reaction to the news that a little-known heir and political donor, Tim Mellon, has this cycle given $20 million to an organization supporting the RFK Jr. campaign and $15 million for pro-Trump efforts. The donations might mean nothing, as Mr. Mellon has a history of giving money to Democratic rebels, including Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. But the DNC has already branded it meddling, declared Mr. Kennedy a “stalking horse for Trump,” and thrown up billboards in Michigan that read: “RFK Jr. powered by MAGA/Trump. Same biggest donor Timothy Mellon.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/meddler...ion_lead_pos10
What I don't get is take that what happened in 2016 and 2020 will repeat exactly the same. Those two times Trump was behind in the polls close to double digits at times. The race tightened at the end. Which is often what happens in elections. This time Trump is ahead. As much as 5 a couple months ago. So why would the opposite happen and the leaders numbers get better instead of worse like they did before? Add to it the fact the GOP has underperformed up to 10% in the post 2020 races (mid terms and special elections) which seems to be related to R v W being over turned. Something that was not on the table in 2016 and 2020. And Trump's solution to this is a nationwide abortion ban bill.
You are being dishonest again. Trump never push for a nationwide abortion ban bill. He never even mention it and it doesn't have the votes in Congress to make it a federal law. You know Democrats are in trouble when they start lying and clinging to the abortion made up crisis.
Trump's polls have been under reported from 2016 to election day. So when Trump now is ahead of Joe, it only shows how unpopular Joe is and how much he is in trouble and none of your wishful thinking will change that.
Now you mentioned that Republicans "underperformed" post 2020 and ignore the fact that Democrats also have "underperformed". Democrats lost 13 seats in the house in 2020 and 9 seats in 2022. So in 2 years, the Democrats lost 22 seats in Congress and can't hold Congress pass 4 years. Joe's average lead in 2020 was 7+ and he barely won 25 states and 4 of those states by less than 1% that decided the election. Today he is -2 and your wishful thinking is that he will close that margin in 8 months based on what? He is not a great speaker or campaigner and there isn't a great piece of legislation under his name that can bail him out in November. So explain how Joe is going close that significant gap from 2020 in which he barely won. He can't offer the most freebies to a vulnerable electorate since We are not in lock down anymore like in 2020, so how is Joe going to close the gap?
I think Trump will win. My whole point is MAGA should not be so over confident. All I read is cherry picked poll after poll as to how well Trump is doing and how its impossible for Biden to win. However Jan 27th, two months ago Trump was up 4.3. Now its 1.0. And if you read what I originally wrote the polls with the lowest MOE and largest sample size favor Biden. So if you put more weight on those polls Biden might be up 1 or 2 at the moment. Yet MAGA keeps doing their victory dance 7 months out. If Biden really has made up 5 or 6 points in 2 months anything could happen in 7 more months. This is not the time to be smug. Its time to get serious for a dog fight. If none of you want to acknowledge that fact and claim I am trolling by simply stating recent poll numbers. Maybe Trump won't win. Maybe it will be 2020 and 2022 and all the special elections where the dems have overperformed over and over. Like Alabama just this week.
Point is its bad to assume that Trump will win. You need to fight tooth and nail for victory. Otherwise it could be another horrible disappointment. You don't want to be doing victory laps for 7 months and then claim the next 4 years after that, that the dems stole the election. Better to just win it, don't you think?
They should call you Nostradamus Bound.
I agree with you that Trump is more likely to win, but it's pretty hilarious watching the same people that predicted Trump would easily defeat Biden in 2020 and a red wave in 2022 now confidently declaring Trump's re-election as a foregone conclusion. They never learn.
This is going to be close either way. My map has Trump winning 283-255, but a lot can change.
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Those are national popular vote. Meaningless. Now do battleground states and comeback to me and tell us that Joe is getting close.
