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Old 12-03-2023, 10:54 AM
 
2,358 posts, read 2,182,082 times
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Just as a counter-point to the prevailing narrative, a few days ago Hugh Bailey pointed out that the 56k influx may be overstated according to DataHaven among other watchdog/advocacy groups.

https://www.ctpost.com/opinion/artic...e-18509246.php

That number could be as low as net 3k influx from NYS, which is far less of note. And also the continued under-emphasis on the majority of CT's population influx for decades: foreign immigration.

While I personally don't know the actual number I was always suspicious of the large 10s of k numbers being tossed around, sort of beggars belief on its face. There has been a bit of a construction boom in SW CT but nowhere enough for 56k per annum...

Sorry, brain fog moment, but the article is right... all the talk whether its 3k or 56k influx of NYers there is a very loud and powerful contingent (Lamont included, to one of his very big but few faults imho) that think that CT should only fashion itself to be a haven for NYers and not worry about other conditions. It gives just enough excuse not to really evaluate land use laws/housing policy in the state, or a more holistic approach to transportation or even state-wide taxation.

Last edited by Beeker2211; 12-03-2023 at 11:06 AM..
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Old 12-03-2023, 12:55 PM
 
351 posts, read 161,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveM85 View Post
I already did. Numerous times. Exactly that, at end of Sept. Early Mon flight to LAX. Left the house at 6am, drive was an hour flat.
Two weeks ago midday Saturday - 65 mins down, 70-75 mins back.
It’s not i95 between Stamford and New Haven, that’s an utter disaster.

Which way is not a disaster? Friday 5pm it was 4 hours JFK - Cheshire through I84.
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Old 12-03-2023, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Connecticut
34,918 posts, read 56,910,251 times
Reputation: 11220
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beeker2211 View Post
Just as a counter-point to the prevailing narrative, a few days ago Hugh Bailey pointed out that the 56k influx may be overstated according to DataHaven among other watchdog/advocacy groups.

https://www.ctpost.com/opinion/artic...e-18509246.php

That number could be as low as net 3k influx from NYS, which is far less of note. And also the continued under-emphasis on the majority of CT's population influx for decades: foreign immigration.

While I personally don't know the actual number I was always suspicious of the large 10s of k numbers being tossed around, sort of beggars belief on its face. There has been a bit of a construction boom in SW CT but nowhere enough for 56k per annum...

Sorry, brain fog moment, but the article is right... all the talk whether its 3k or 56k influx of NYers there is a very loud and powerful contingent (Lamont included, to one of his very big but few faults imho) that think that CT should only fashion itself to be a haven for NYers and not worry about other conditions. It gives just enough excuse not to really evaluate land use laws/housing policy in the state, or a more holistic approach to transportation or even state-wide taxation.
As I always point out, these numbers are estimated with a margin of error so they could be off. That said I think we all agree that a lot of New Yorkers have moved here. I doubt it’s as low as 3,000 though. If your spread that 56,000 over the several dozen dozen or so towns in the state it’s more believable that it’s a high number.

A couple years ago there was an analysis of New York Change of Address forms. The analysis showed that about 250 NY residents moved from New York City to West Hartford in one year. To me that is a lot since West Hartford is hardly a place thought to have a lot of New Yorkers. This leads me to believe that maybe the 56,000 estimate is not that off. Certainly someone is filling all those new apartments in Stamford, Norwalk, Fairfield, Greenwich, etc.. It’s not inconceivable that the number is that high.
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Old 12-04-2023, 06:48 AM
 
879 posts, read 1,659,704 times
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Every other new family at our schools here in Fairfield is from Brooklyn.
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Old 12-04-2023, 07:19 AM
 
Location: USA
6,881 posts, read 3,729,789 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beeker2211 View Post
While I personally don't know the actual number I was always suspicious of the large 10s of k numbers being tossed around, sort of beggars belief on its face. There has been a bit of a construction boom in SW CT but nowhere enough for 56k per annum...
We will never know the real number but what we do in fact now is this - a helluva of lot of NYers moved in since that fateful Spring of 2020.
You didn't need a construction boom as many homes sitting prior along with ghost inventory suddenly started selling like hotcakes.
The floodgates opened, NYers fled from power grabbing pols, increased crime and covid obsessed henchmen and women. The rest was history. Make no mistake, they came, and came big, don't let the article fool you.
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Old 12-04-2023, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Northeast states
14,047 posts, read 13,920,856 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveM85 View Post
We will never know the real number but what we do in fact now is this - a helluva of lot of NYers moved in since that fateful Spring of 2020.
You didn't need a construction boom as many homes sitting prior along with ghost inventory suddenly started selling like hotcakes.
The floodgates opened, NYers fled from power grabbing pols, increased crime and covid obsessed henchmen and women. The rest was history. Make no mistake, they came, and came big, don't let the article fool you.
The numbers going be higher in 2024 with situation in NYC right now
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Old 12-09-2023, 08:03 PM
 
Location: USA
6,881 posts, read 3,729,789 times
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Tune your TV to HGTV. Its House Hunters in West Hartford. 10pm episode
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Old 12-09-2023, 10:35 PM
 
Location: Connecticut
34,918 posts, read 56,910,251 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveM85 View Post
Tune your TV to HGTV. Its House Hunters in West Hartford. 10pm episode
I actually stumbled on it at the end but it’s being repeated at 1:00 AM so I’m recording it.
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Old 12-10-2023, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,722 posts, read 28,055,508 times
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Market is very cool here right now.

May just be normal seasonality. But the last 2 winters have bucked the seasonality trend and stayed hot, so something is different now.
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Old 12-10-2023, 04:39 PM
 
34,015 posts, read 17,041,831 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BPt111 View Post
The numbers going be higher in 2024 with situation in NYC right now
Agreed. half a million fled NY State in 2022, and we got some, no doubt. Adams approval rating is lower than any mayor there in my lifetime and NYC is likely the majority of the 500k exiles, so I would bet 2023 numbers repeat 2022.

Now they are adding 6 figures of illegals each year. Ct will get some offloaded on us, no doubt.

This is a very burdensome time to be NYC's neighbor, for sure.

I doubt our # was anywhere near either 3k or 56k. The 500k exiles did include tons to the southeast USA.
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