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I've been seeing some signs recently that the housing market has peaked in Williston. I don't see any peak yet in prices for commercial/industrial properties. I knew this was going to happen, but I thought it would take another year or so to catch up. Here is what is making me think that this is the case:
1. Drilling rig count has remained almost flat since passing 200 rigs. We are seeing the service company market becoming increasingly competitive. This indicates that fewer new service companies will be entering the area. Slow down in hiring + extreme housing development = potential housing surplus.
2. The number of houses for sale with realtors has been steadily increasing over the last 2 months. Houses have been staying on the market for more time than early this year.
Housing prices haven't dropped yet, but I believe they have peaked. I anticipate that we will see some of the prices drop going into the fall (especially older houses).
Since I am no longer in the market I haven't really been keeping up. I do know that I see quite a few For Sale signs without a sale pending attachment while driving around town these days. If the residential market has started to peak then I suggest that people start really looking to buy. I guarentee that the county will start shutting down the man camps and RV parking if they feel that there is adequate permanent housing available. The commissioners aren't going to cater to a transient population forever, they want people to buy houses and sign leases since it is better for the county and communities.
Very true. I don't live in Williston, but being the mod, I read every post in the ND forum. All the indicators show that things flattened out about the 1st of the year.
Having lived in a boom/bust state for a lot of years, what you are seeing is a sure indicator. The problem being is, either the oil boom is catching it's breath and will come back with a roar, or, it has flattened out and will maintain pretty much what it's doing. It would be smart if it flattened and will maintain. Somebody, somewhere, needs to level the boom. Knock the peaks and valleys off. Wyoming did this by the state limiting permits for rigs. I don't care what they discover, the state looks at the towns within reasonable distance and they set a rig count that the area can live with without going bust. They don't leave towns stale, but they give enough rigs so that the towns can expand reasonably and they won't have have the houses standing empty in 2 years.
It will be interesting what happens in the next 6 months. By then, oil prices will start back up again. If the oil prices go up a bit, they can produce, but at current prices, they are barely breaking even.
I will disagree. Housing in Williston is still going strong. Harvest Hills will be going before the Williston City Commission tonight (Tues 7-10) for approval for phase 2 and 3 of the Harvest Hills subdivision. Along with Granite Peaks Harvest Hills expansion, Braxton (developers of Hampton Inn) is getting ready to break ground on NorthGate aprtments on 40 acres north of east 42nd street which will consit of over 300 apartment units. University Commons is in the process of developing 40 acres of condos twinhomes and apartments near the corner of 26th University which will consist of 600 housing units. Chandler Field has broken ground on their 1,300 unit apartment complex just west of Sand Creek Towne Center. Also on 42nd street (west) to the Northwest of Super Wal-mart, another 600 unit apartment complex called Renaissance Heights Apartment Homes being developed by Brutgers (the same people who built the Williston Gardens complex along with Holiday Inn, HomStay and Candlewood suites. 20+ acres on East Dakota parkway to the south and east of 26th and East Dakota is up before the Planning and zoning for platting of new housing. So no, housing in Williston has not reached it's construction peak. Just my opinion from what I have been tracking from the Williston City Commission meeting minutes, Building dept, and Planning and zoning. Driving around Williston, I see lots of Sales Pending, and yes, some "way over priced" homes with For Sale on them. People are not stupid...not even the most desperate will buy an unkept 1950's 2 bedroom 1 bath ranch for 300,000 when you can buy a brand new 4-5 bedroom 2 1/2 bath for the same price. As more of the newer homes come on line, the older ones will not get the outrageous high prices they were once getting. Aslo, as more and more housing units come on line, the construction of "mancamps" will probably start decreasing. But time will tell. Below is the comparison chart for this time last year compared to this year. They are ahead of last years "record breaking" construction year. Many believe this year will break last years record.
Well, that's one reason why I think that the housing market has peaked. When I say peaked, I mean to say that prices have peaked; not that we have reached the maximum number of houses in Williston or that construction is slowing down.
For an oilfield operator, it is easier now to find service companies to do work than a year ago. Prices for service companies have been on the decline recently. As mentioned frequenty on these forums, many businesses are more picky on hiring than they were a year or two ago. While there is still a shortage of help in the area, it does not seem to be as acute as last year.
The thousands of housing units will be filled, but they may not command the premium that they have had in the past.
The above is the update from the city commission meeting on the Harvest Hills 2nd addition.
I see what you are saying Bobsmith101...I thought you meant they are finished BUILDING in Williston. But I do agree, that the prices can't go much higher...they will have to eventually come down....especially as more housing units come on line.
Last edited by Roloff1976; 07-11-2012 at 10:41 AM..
Well, that's one reason why I think that the housing market has peaked. When I say peaked, I mean to say that prices have peaked; not that we have reached the maximum number of houses in Williston or that construction is slowing down.
For an oilfield operator, it is easier now to find service companies to do work than a year ago. Prices for service companies have been on the decline recently. As mentioned frequenty on these forums, many businesses are more picky on hiring than they were a year or two ago. While there is still a shortage of help in the area, it does not seem to be as acute as last year.
The thousands of housing units will be filled, but they may not command the premium that they have had in the past.
I believe you're right and it's not just the housing that has peaked. In regard to housing though I know of several people who are trying to sell their homes now without a lot of interest. Of course they are asking the previously (exorbitant) going rate. Practically the only parties that could afford this were corporate in nature. I hear people griping because we don't have families buying homes here but the fact is the bank won't even look at financing when the prices are so far over appraisals. I really hope to see that come to an end so that some "regular" people can buy a home and bring their families and those who are already here can stop stuggling so hard to pay their rent.
I agree as well. My husband and I have been looking at purchasing a house and have noticed that the housing prices are starting to level off. When we first moved up here my husband wanted to buy and we've kept an eye on the market since then. I flat out refused for awhile, the risk of being upside down in a home was too high. However I'm now seeing some of the older homes under $200,000 for 3 bedrooms. It's been a long time since I've seen that, it's also been a long time since I've seen homes remain on realtor websites for more than a week or two.
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