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I'll be in Berea, KY during this time. I hope I'm not too far west.
You might be too far south. We'll see.
I'll update in the morning with the latest from the models...For now... here's NWS Sterling in Virginia.
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017
All eyes are looking towards the end of the week. Guidance continues
to go back and forth regarding potential for a significant
snowstorm, but the pattern is reasonable given the arctic air mass
and trough over the eastern US, with ridging off the Southeast
Coast. It will come down to timing and track of shortwaves and their
interaction, and those details have yet to be ironed out for several
more days, most likely. One item of note is that guidance has slowed
the system down, and some models now have multiple opportunities for
storm development starting Friday and continuing through New Years,
so its certainly a time period we will be watching closely.
"In looking at the GFS/ECMWF. It is clear that the differences for the late week system, stems from how the models handle the key s/w, which wont be onshore till Tues night. The GFS shears this out squashing it in the northern jet, the ECMWF keeps it more separate, room to amplify.
That will be key. With the disturbance not moving onshore till Tuesday, we may see some continued wild swings. Now we do have satellite wind data which is huge in model data assimilation, but the balloon data/aircraft data is always key. So all that to say, expect model swings. "
Yeah, they're even saying Seattle might get some snow. In my city, I think we have a 10% chance. Given how great forecasting is in our area, that means we'll either get 3 feet of snow or nothing. More likely nothing.
Here's the potential setup.. I drew in the potential storm tracks... One important ingredient will be that Quebec High Pressure. I don't want it too far north because the southern storm would come closer on land but I don't want that High too far south because then the storm slides off the south and all we get is Cold and Dry.
Yeah, they're even saying Seattle might get some snow. In my city, I think we have a 10% chance. Given how great forecasting is in our area, that means we'll either get 3 feet of snow or nothing. More likely nothing.
Yup.. I'll be watching there too...The storm entering PacNW will be part of the puzzle for this end of month storm in question..
The Jet stream is digging far south enough over the West that Seattle is getting hit by the moisture and storms.
BTW -- Model Update 12/24/17:::
There's so many senarios and results per models I'm trying to wait until they agree again.
GFS is kinda flat with the Jet stream and makes the storm slide out to sea to the South. Still snows lightly in Kentucky, Virginias, and DC but no big storm.
Canadian Snows in Kentucky, Virginias, heavy snow for DC and Philly but misses NYC as the storm goes OTS in a fast flow. No big storm.
Euro Same thing.. no big storm until its well out in the Atlantic. Jet streams aren't merging fast enough or the northern Jet isn't digging south enough. Euro shows light snows for Northeast as the northern piece of energy shifts off shore.
Then there's this.......
EuroEPS.. Huge Coastal Storm but blows up too far north for anyone south of NYC to get in on it.
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