Plains-Mid West Snowstorm Nov 20-21, 2015 (snowfall, warm, temperatures, Chicago)

[Cambium]

Nice little Snowstorm coming with a narrow swath of snow accumulations from a Clipper that will turn and heads towards Quebec missing New England.





GFS Text output for Monroe, WI (border of IL & WI)

1.05" qpf. Wow.

[Cambium]

Overnight model updates for snowtotals tomorrow and Saturday...

EURO, GFS, NAM

GFS got a 10-18" bullseye right on the border there. Either way...all models printing a nice narrow swath snowstorm.

I usually take a couple inches off these maps.

Large Image

[Cambium]

GFS Text Data for

Monroe, WI which is near the IL/WI border. 1.05" qpf all snow. Wow



Here's Chicago ORD. 0.85" qpf might not start as snow with surface temps 3-6C but as surface cools will change and accumulate. Temps aloft fully support snow.

[Cambium]

Gotta love the weather models and the abilities.

November 2nd. This was for last weeks storm which happened but it was off 1 week for snow in Mid West. Details Details.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Maybe the first real snowstorm to track next week??
Both 00z EuroOP & Ensembles show it for the Plains into Midwest into Canada.

November 10th. 9 days before...Right on.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Euro showing storm after storm.

Top left: Tomorrow
Top right: Next Wednesday 18th
Bottom left: Next Friday the 20th
Bottom right: Sunday 22nd

Every 2 days???

Here we are with the 20th storm about to happen.

Future Radar Loop Watch the snow come across the plains and snowing over entire state of Iowa by tomm evening . Looks like snow in Ontario too today & tonight.

[unobtainium]

I doubt anything will stick here in SE Michigan. Soil temps are high, lakes are warm, and even the forecast air temps in the afternoon (when snow will be falling according to the forecasts) looks too warm. We'll see I guess. I predict a rapid melt and very little sticking on the ground.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by unobtainium

I doubt anything will stick here in SE Michigan. Soil temps are high, lakes are warm, and even the forecast air temps in the afternoon (when snow will be falling according to the forecasts) looks too warm. We'll see I guess. I predict a rapid melt and very little sticking on the ground.

Ugh.. no offense to you, just irritates me when I hear that about ground temps and stickage. Its mostly improper education from words spread out like that.

It IS NOT about ground temps, its about rate of fall and length of time. If precip intensity is strong enough it WILL stick.

I preach this over and over and use examples all the time. Wont bore you with specific dates and details but Im sure you can find them yourself.

Lets keep an eye on the radar and see how intense the snowfall is for you. Sometimes we dont know until hours before.

Accumulations could be held down but rate of fall is important factor in stickage. Also.. measure every hour before it compacts too much or melts. Have fun. Keep us posted.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by unobtainium

We'll see I guess. I predict a rapid melt and very little sticking on the ground.

Check out the new NAM update. Shifted the storm south a tad which means the higher totals as well. SE Michigan now inside the heavy snow. Is Chicago back in the game?

Saturday afternoon storm over central Indiana. That's the other thing to think about, solar radiation (daytime).. That's why I always take a couple inches off the snow total maps.

Focus on where the heavier totals are being shown, that's where they are picking up the heavier rate of fall / most stickage.



Snow totals. Iowa still jackpot zone. Wow. I would say 2-4" state wide with local amounts somewhere up to 8".



Like with Real Estate they say "Location, Location, Location".. With storms its "Track, Track, Track". Slightest shifts will mean who gets jipped or plowed

[AJ1013]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Check out the new NAM update. Shifted the storm south a tad which means the higher totals as well. SE Michigan now inside the heavy snow. Is Chicago back in the game?

Saturday afternoon storm over central Indiana. That's the other thing to think about, solar radiation (daytime).. That's why I always take a couple inches off the snow total maps.

Focus on where the heavier totals are being shown, that's where they are picking up the heavier rate of fall / most stickage.



Snow totals. Iowa still jackpot zone. Wow. I would say 2-4" state wide with local amounts somewhere up to 8".



Like with Real Estate they say "Location, Location, Location".. With storms its "Track, Track, Track". Slightest shifts will mean who gets jipped or plowed

YES!!!!!!

The more it shifts south the better for me

[Cambium]

Whoa. From Iowa. They use "significant" accumulations but then mention pavement melting (not soil)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
512 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.OUR RECENT WARM FALL CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT TO
END THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS
TRACK. WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ZERO NORTH BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

512 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS IOWA STARTING MIDDAY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES ON
VEGETATION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DUE TO MELTING ON SIDEWALKS
AND PAVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO STORM TRACK
AND THE DEGREE OF MELTING.

* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH DURING THE SNOW MAY
PRODUCE MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE
TO VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME WET INITIALLY AND THEN SLUSHY
BEFORE SNOW BEGINS ACCUMULATING. THE COMBINATION OF SLUSHY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE

[Cambium]

Whats gonna happen in Chicago. Curious. Suburbs probably half foot and at the airport .00001". lol

Snow Friday Night Into Saturday; Winter Storm Watch in Effect