Spring 2012 Thread (March-May) (tornadoes, minimum, Oregon, amount)
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JB has been wrong about pretty much everything this winter.
Yea, your right. Not only that, but did you ever notice that the "center" of his hyped up snow forecasts is always over the Middle Atlantic/Tri-State area - the heaviest populated, largest commercial market in North America.
From the suburbs of Washington DC to the Tri-State area (NY/NJ/CT), they average like 15 – 35 inches of snow – lol. What about the places in New England, the Great Lakes, the Upper Midwest, the Intermountain West, the passes in the PNW, California…etc? Many places in these regions get 100 – 300 inches of snow on average each winter – but in terms of marketing it has little value I guess. A lot of JB forecasts are “market based” it often seems – lol.
He's said some sloppy things in the past. Whatever your take on global warming is, some of things he says sounds like someone he doesn't think carefully before he talks, particularly the first quoted paragraph:
He's said some sloppy things in the past. Whatever your take on global warming is, some of things he says sounds like someone he doesn't think carefully before he talks, particularly the first quoted paragraph:
That was an eye-opener…how on earth did you find that one - lol.
My real problem with JB, and many of today “weather outlets”…is they no longer forecast weather, they “market weather”. Worse, he always has the same agenda - cold. He never lets the data speak for itself...he's always trying to twist it into somehow the world will get colder soon (esp where he lives - lol). I don't know where I stand on global warming, but no matter what happens, he thinks everything we see means the climate is cooling. It’s enough to make an old weatherman cry.
After the March heatwave...... forecast looks thoroughly boring with high pressure over Iceland giving cloudy drizzly north winds for early April, possibly the most mundane and tedious weather pattern imaginable. Oh well, we've got to make up for this summer we just had I guess. Anyone who enjoys dry cloudy boring maritime arctic winds is an eejit.
High pressure to the west/northwest of the UK is the boringest, gheyest weather pattern scenario possible and makes me roll my eyes every time. How typical. It ruined last summer too I seem to remember. It doesn't bring the rain we need either, yet it just brings cold, nuclear winter style anti-cyclonic gloom and scraps of drizzle plus the most boring weather imaginable ever in the world known ever.
Worse, he always has the same agenda - cold. He never lets the data speak for itself...he's always trying to twist it into somehow the world will get colder soon (esp where he lives - lol).
Perhaps it's wishful thinking . Seriously, it should be pointed out that in his most recent video he said that weather is not climate, and that one should pay attention to global temperatures. I don't keep up with him, so I cannot speak for his overall expressed views, but it is a counterpoint.
As for JB's forecasting prowess, which is a somewhat contentious subject, I think he has his biases, but overall he's about as good as any other long-range forecaster, which is to say a high inaccuracy rate but still useful for predictive purposes. His pattern recognition, however, is about the best of the bunch when it concerns the 5-25 day timeframe. Long range his record is more spotty - he's been awful this winter even in the medium range, but he did reasonably well in 2010 (especially for the mid-Atlantic, but that may have just been luck or his bias coming through) and 2011 (only after December when he realized his previous forecast was junk).
I agree that the more "old-style" approach was better, and too many try to market weather as opposed to forecasting it, giving a range of uncertainties, the conditions that will transpire to make their forecast verify, the uncertainties in them, confidence level, et cetera. Case in point was Accuweather saying that "people from the Midwest would want to move after this winter" and the UK Met Office's cautious forecast that was twisted by the media into the "BBQ summer" fiasco. Well, perhaps in a curious way Accuweather was right - if I lived in Chicago during this pathetic winter I'd want to move north. The heat-and-sun bias, where especially TV meteorologists push hot and sunny weather, is an especially problematic issue that wasn't as bad years ago or among older weathermen.
Tomorrow will be the last sunny day before it becomes cloudy and cooler.. some models are showing the possibility of a very cold April, colder then the March just gone
Let's get the crap weather out the way in spring rather than suffer a dreadful summer again. However the April cold in all the models I've seen doesn't look very interesting with mostly a cool tedious NW'ly settled airflow with cloud and drizzle, and high pressure still in control, nothing of the much more interesting sun & showers combo like 2008 (last interesting April there was). So I shall sleep now in my hibernation until a loud thunderclap wakes me up to know real weather has arrived.
Had the first thunderstorm of the year here in northwest NJ. Funny thing is, the town where I go to school got it, but my hometown 5 miles away didn't.
The next few days look to be relatively cool (48-58), with showers on Saturday. It's supposed to heat back up to the 70s on Monday.
Weather forecasts seem very unpredictable this time of year, during the seasonal transitions.
Sometimes the forecast for the next few days even seems to change even after a few hours, from refreshing the screen to check the current temperature.
Anyone else notice this?
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. Seriously, it should be pointed out that in his most recent video he said that weather is not climate, and that one should pay attention to global temperatures. I don't keep up with him, so I cannot speak for his overall expressed views, but it is a counterpoint.
