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New Orleans and much of the surrounding area can't handle anywhere near 20" of rain in a couple of days. They're already making plans to handout sand bags!
We have Gulf water, normally at its hottest around this time of year, at 2 to 3 degrees above normal. Some areas have water temps in the low 90's. That's insane! Even the South China Sea doesn't get this hot and the Persian Gulf not much hotter.
This thing is called the unromantic Tropical Depression 13 and it's none too well organized. But the latest reports from the NHC tell us that there is now closed circulation and this unborn is under a dome of high pressure that will encourage strengthening. Tropical storm force winds and a name are virtually certain.
Forecast track has it heading toward the Lousiana coast making landfall just west of Marsh Island Wildlife Refuge and running right through Lafayette. But the truth is no one yet knows for certain. I've seen the models and from the tracks they have generated spaghettied all over the Gulf, one might get the impression that even God isn't sure what He wants to do with this storm.
But there is one certainty: This is a wet one. QPF's over the center of action in the Gulf of Mexico have rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour. That's cloudburst intensity, folks and it is no joke. If that happens over New Orelans' Ninth Ward for any length of time, General Honore (Ret) will be making another trip....
My advice, for what it's worth is for anyone living anywhere from Key West clear to Corpus Christi to be prepared for the possibility of this thing hitting you. Though Southern Louisiana seems to be the target of choice at present, there is still enough uncertainty as to where "13" will head that a plan would be prudent no matter where you live.
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