NFL Expansion- Big Picture

[censusdata]

American football is far more popular in Mexico than Europe. If Canada doesn't want to NFL then the only international expansion cities that make sense are Monterrey, Mexico City, etc.

[Unsettomati]

Originally Posted by censusdata

American football is far more popular in Mexico than Europe. If Canada doesn't want to NFL then the only international expansion cities that make sense are Monterrey, Mexico City, etc.

The number of fans is only part of the equation.

Take the United Kingdom, for example. Yes, it is true that Mexico has approximately 4x as many NFL fans as the UK. But Mexico has twice as many people as well, so the per capita rate of fans is only 2x.

More importantly:

*The per capita household disposable income in the UK is ~$37k$US, whereas in Mexico it's ~16.5k$US. NFL tickets are expensive. NFL swag is expensive. UK fans have more money to throw at the NFL than do Mexican fans.

*That same wealth disparity makes the UK market more valuable to television advertisers, which means that a team in (say) London makes future NFL television deals more valuable than does a team in Mexico.

*Corporate suites/luxury boxes are a major financial driver of the NFL. The GDP of London is 4x the GDP of Mexico City.

*Most of the UK's population is within a reasonable travel distance to 8 or 9 home games per season. Most of Mexico's population is most certainly not within a reasonable travel distance of Mexico City (and even less so for other cities).

*A London team would be within attendance range of western Europe (Germany, for example, has about 7 million self-professed NFL fans; France and the low countries are right there as well). A team in Mexico would not be positioned to draw any significant interest beyond Mexico, and what interest it did draw would have far less disposable income.

I'm not suggesting that the NFL *should* expand to Europe. But 6 million fans in an area the size of Minnesota (ie, the UK) with a lot of disposable income and reasonably proximate to another ~250,000,000 people with lots of wealth is a far better financial bet than 23 million fans spread out over an area 3x the size of Texas (ie, Mexico) with a lot less disposable income and nowhere convenient to any additional fans of note.

[king john IV]

income taxes and others would discourage
top talent from establishing a London base.

[sub]

As a youth sport, football has been in decline for a while now. The talent pool is just going to shrink as a result.
If anything, they should be planning for contraction at some point down the road.
Also, playing games overseas would diminish the live viewing experience for the NFL's largest market here in the states.
Seems kind of silly.

[sluggermatt15]

Originally Posted by sub

As a youth sport, football has been in decline for a while now. The talent pool is just going to shrink as a result.
If anything, they should be planning for contraction at some point down the road.
Also, playing games overseas would diminish the live viewing experience for the NFL's largest market here in the states.
Seems kind of silly.

This is a very true observation. I completely agree. I wonder how everything will change in 15-20 years.