When is this housing bubble gonna pop? (Seattle: bankruptcy, contractor)

[Walch1007]

Have you not looked 2.5 hrs to the north? Real estate prices are easily double in Vancouver. Seattle is not even remotely close to a bubble. Those looking for the bubble to burst will be in for a rude awakening when even more Chinese investors shift their focus to Seattle.

Granted, Vancouver is a little nicer and more Chinese-friendly, but climate is similar and seattle is also relatively close to Asia being on the West Coast.

Entry level tech workers make 100k+ so 500-600K houses are just average. There's literally nothing pointing to a bubble or crash unless one of the big employers like Microsoft or Amazon decide to move out.

[thatguy950]

Originally Posted by Walch1007

Have you not looked 2.5 hrs to the north? Real estate prices are easily double in Vancouver. Seattle is not even remotely close to a bubble. Those looking for the bubble to burst will be in for a rude awakening when even more Chinese investors shift their focus to Seattle.

Granted, Vancouver is a little nicer and more Chinese-friendly, but climate is similar and seattle is also relatively close to Asia being on the West Coast.

Entry level tech workers make 100k+ so 500-600K houses are just average. There's literally nothing pointing to a bubble or crash unless one of the big employers like Microsoft or Amazon decide to move out.

Maybe 1% of entry level tech workers make 100k+ but that certainly isn't the norm in Seattle, most jobs in seattle have lower wages than average for the country, are harder and more competitive to get, and often are no-benefits contractor positions.

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by thatguy950

Maybe 1% of entry level tech workers make 100k+ but that certainly isn't the norm in Seattle, most jobs in seattle have lower wages than average for the country, are harder and more competitive to get, and often are no-benefits contractor positions.

Forbes has Seattle is #7 in the country.

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/efkk.../#6ba85672187b

Business Insider has Seattle at #6 in the country

The 20 highest-paying cities in America - Business Insider

[thatguy950]

Originally Posted by Seacove

Forbes has Seattle is #7 in the country.

https://www.forbes.com/pictures/efkk.../#6ba85672187b

Business Insider has Seattle at #6 in the country

The 20 highest-paying cities in America - Business Insider

Median pay is still well below $100k and seeing that article about it being the 9th most expensive place to rent in the world, that's still pretty low pay.

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by thatguy950

Median pay is still well below $100k and seeing that article about it being the 9th most expensive place to rent in the world, that's still pretty low pay.

Want to do median? Okay, let's use City Data:

https://www.city-data.com/top2.html

And Wikipedia has the Seattle median at #14 in the U.S. based on the Census:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

Originally Posted by thatguy950

most jobs in seattle have lower wages than average for the country

So where is the data showing Seattle has lower wages than average in the country?

Here is another with the average putting Seattle at #21

http://www.myplan.com/careers/top-te...aid-cities.php

[thatguy950]

Originally Posted by Seacove

Want to do median? Okay, let's use City Data:

https://www.city-data.com/top2.html

And Wikipedia has the Seattle median at #14 in the U.S. based on the Census:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States



So where is the data showing Seattle has lower wages than average in the country?

Here is another with the average putting Seattle at #21

Highest-Paid Cities by Average Income

You sound upset.

Look around glassdoor and indeed, you're in for a surprise.

My point remains, extremely expensive and only 14th/21st in income? Whooptie do, Seattle's housing prices are what we in the data analytics business call a "false economy."

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by thatguy950

You sound upset.

Look around glassdoor and indeed, you're in for a surprise.

My point remains, extremely expensive and only 14th/21st in income? Whooptie do, Seattle's housing prices are what we in the data analytics business call a "false economy."

I'm not the least bit upset, I'm asking where the data is to support the argument. If you are in the data analytics business, this should be extremely easy to produce. Define false economy. If the average and median income is in the top twenty in the nation, and there are options to live closer in or further out, and housing is appreciating at a rapid rate with an unemployment rate under 4%, what is false?

https://ycharts.com/indicators/seatt...mployment_rate

Homes in Seattle appreciated at a one-year rate of 9.1 percent during Q2, nearly double the national average of 4.9 percent, while three-year rates soared to 21.6 percent, compared to 17.8 percent.

Seattle, WA | Real Estate Market & Trends 2016

[OneTimeSEALover]

A lot depends on how leveraged an individual is. Some people keep their debt well within a safe range. But some choose to use a dream scenario when they make a home purchase. I and my wife applied a disaster scenario to determine what we WANTED to pay, not what we could "afford" to pay. The bank (a big one famous for repeated scams) pushed a high budget. We ignored their obvious hunger for fees and went low.

[Walch1007]

Originally Posted by thatguy950

Maybe 1% of entry level tech workers make 100k+ but that certainly isn't the norm in Seattle, most jobs in seattle have lower wages than average for the country, are harder and more competitive to get, and often are no-benefits contractor positions.

It's a lot more than 1%. If median income is $55K and you need like 20 people making $20K a year just to run one McDonald's, there are a lot of low income people in that median $55K number.

These people aren't driving the net inflow into the city. The ones moving in are highly paid tech workers and rich Chinese millionaires who have tons of on-hand cash (~30% of sales in the city are closed with cash right now according to one agent I spoke with).

Anyway, my point wasn't to discuss income, but $100K all-in after bonus and equity isn't really that much. Starting point for Microsoft/Amazon is ~$120K all-in.

[Walch1007]

Originally Posted by OneTimeSEALover

A lot depends on how leveraged an individual is. Some people keep their debt well within a safe range. But some choose to use a dream scenario when they make a home purchase. I and my wife applied a disaster scenario to determine what we WANTED to pay, not what we could "afford" to pay. The bank (a big one famous for repeated scams) pushed a high budget. We ignored their obvious hunger for fees and went low.

I'm not from the US. Would you mind sharing what's considered high and low here?