San Antonio Weather Thread (Kerrville: removal, highways, equipment)

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by scuba steve

Have fun with that. If it snowed here I missed that last year, and I'll be back in the PNW this time too. Somehow I have a feeling the wife won't need to break out the snow cables...

Originally Posted by sapphire

Well, let us know if she needs to whip out the golf clubs.

I don't remember snow last year either, but I tend to block out the bad memories. I remember a couple of years ago when we had a "major ice incident" and I got 2 days off!! That was sweet.

It didn't quite make it to the airport but if ya stayed up late enough we had a bunch of sleet briefly change over to snow

CD Thread:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/san-a...th-2008-a.html

Youtube vid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKfyZG1ljbc

[scuba steve]

I didn't know it was considered snow unless there was enough to throw at somebody...

Nice weather where I'm going for a while anyway. Sunny with highs in the mid-40s at least for a week. Of course it snowed like crazy a year ago from when I return and only I-5 was ice-free so who knows what it'll be like later.

[AnthonySA]

http://www.mytexasweather.com/images/winterstorm120109-1.jpg (broken link)

[rd2007]

still not moving SE enough

[AnthonySA]

I wish I could do more... but even if we do get lucky the best we could do in town is squeeze out a few wet flakes mixed in with the cold rain.

[rd2007]

well, it's better than endless 100+ degree days and drought

[sapphire]

Originally Posted by rd2007

well, it's better than endless 100+ degree days and drought

Says you.

[moeowo]

Amen to that! I'd take cold over heat any day!!

Originally Posted by rd2007

well, it's better than endless 100+ degree days and drought

[mamatotex97]

bring back the heat and lazy days by the pool ....I'm ready.

[AnthonySA]

Will it rain or will it snow?

The best answer is... too close to call. As mentioned in earlier updates, the computer models are having difficulty forecasting the extent and depth of the cold air surrounding the upper level low. I suspect this is due to the following reasons:

1 - There is no deep Arctic air mass that is covering the US and Canada.
2 - The low is cut-off from the main jet stream. Models always have difficulty forecasting strength and velocity of cut-off lows since the surrounding steering currents (upper level winds) are so weak.

So that said, the models still tonight are forecasting conditions that are borderline ideal for some wintry precipitation (mainly snow). If the models are underestimating the cold air, then we can expect a few more flakes over a larger area. If they are overestimating the strength of the low and cold air, then we will see a larger swath of cold rains.

Timing is also important. Even with marginal conditions, if the low moves through during the daytime, then the sun will help melt any frozen precipitation. However, at night, the sun's influence is obviously much weaker.

Right now it looks like the low will pass through South-Central Texas after sunset on Tuesday and possibly through the overnight hours. One model brings the low track right on top of San Antonio, or just a touch to the north. This would bring the strongest dynamics and a stronger chance of seeing flakes even in town, but that model also keeps temperatures a little too warm to support snow. Therefore, my forecast still remains all liquid.

Note that no model shows temperatures at the surface approaching 32º, or the freezing mark. So that combined with the warm ground (Since the temperatures were in the 70s prior to the front moving through), any snow that does fall will melt very quickly so no accumulations are expected.